AdrianHull

And what's the worst that can happen? Met office announce a barrlet starting on the 22nd... But on the positive side your name will be up in lights as as we would declare this day..... Matt Wolves Day!!!!! In all seriousness mate keep being you. You're an absolute breath of fresh air on here

Only really on the GFS. Mostly misses and goes south on all the other latest models bringing in a colder northerly feed.

See the North+ South divide debate is picking up again . Best stick to the models. Much better evolution for all if the GFS is correct. Let the cold in and worry about precipitation later. Not a fan of frontal snow anyways. I like mine a bit more powdery that when you walk on it you get a squeaky dry crunch even if it's less dramatic

Right let's bin the ECM. GFS is the best model now after hating it last night In all seriousness after it's little stutter on the 16th from the higher pressure pushing in from the west and a delay of 48 hours it's now showing a cold Northly feed from the 18th. I haven't got a clue what's happening next week. This chop and changing is making me fatigued. Big improvement though

0 uppers in Land's End! Rubbish charts. Binned roll on GFS

Don't often say this but the GFS wants binned. Way to complicated compared to the effortless transition to a Northly from the UKMO. GFS Surely can't set a trend over the UKMO at day 5? Or can it?

I really hope this Low pressure late next week moves much much further south. I know the snow precipitation charts look great for the Midlands and south but for the UK as a whole it's not the best outcome early on into a cold spell. Fingers crossed we can maintain the Northly feed so we can get even more cold in. Some people are a little too happy on eating the first sweet they are given where I tend to save mine. Either outcomes are interesting but with different risks whatever happens.

The ship has always sailed.. It's the weather models job to find out what direction it has sailed to. Weather models have no influence on what is going to be. If you can reel it in to a five day time frame using background signals then there is a chance of cold but also a chance of mild So I can categorically say I haven't a clue along with models hope this helps

Just use the old chestnut of claiming it's lack of flight data. Which was true in the 80s if it makes you feel better Quite ironic really because tomorrow is the busiest day of the year for Atlantic flights from Europe hence the whole of Europe apart from the UK celebrate Christmas today.

A very good feet on the ground response. With being 6 days away till Christmas a flap of a butterflies wings across the Atlantic will change the models for better or worse. Personally I think the models have been slightly over exaggerating the pressure of the Iberian heights and with a few digits lower than what's forecast could bring the cold further south. Then throw a couple of shortwaves into the mix. I know things don't look great this morning but there will be a couple more ups and downs before the big day and it's still to play for even if we can get something slightly festive in regards to the weather

I won't knock anyone who looks at precipitation charts 310hrs away. There's still a remote chance they will be correct as is there is a remote chance of me still achieving my lifetime ambition of being an astronaut even though I'm 41 and deaf in my left lug. But to dream and just for fun fill your boots. 3 days is my maximum limit for precipitation and evan that can be wrong within 12 hours especially during some eastlies of the past.

Exactly and it's very rare you will get that 6 days out till Christmas. Ebbs and Flows before we get into the reliable.

Not sure why the UKMO is so quickly forgotten when the ECM roles out. Yea by all means it's not the best but I wouldn't just dismiss all other runs. Lots of ups and downs till then and I certainly won't be going on an emotional run to run rollercoaster. Things are looking decent especially for more northern members. *Edit. ECM is slowly creeping back to the Christmas Party

Wow that run had everything. 50 onliners , toys starting to come out of prams. Then someone reading out model runs like they just came back from the future. To end in a decent run for the Ecm and coming into line with the mighty big two JMA and NASA models. Got to love this Place *And just to add I'm sure BartyHater drives a gritter for his local council and doesn't want to work this Xmas ... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4978058

Wow that run had everything. 50 onliners , toys starting to come out of prams. Then someone reading out model runs like they just came back from the future. To end in a decent run for the Ecm and coming into line with the mighty big two JMA and NASA models. Got to love this Place *And just to add I'm sure BartyHater drives a gritter for his local council and doesn't want to work this Xmas ...

I would agree if the JMA was out on its own but it's not. It's reading from the same book as most of the models bar ECM and ICON.

Crikey now we are scrapping the barrel. I'm sure the super computer the Russians use to model the weather is a commodore Amiga. Great chart none the less!

It definitely the most consistent one out the rest of the models but I'll let you judge what it is consistently doing. Always gives a ray of sunshine though

Agree... Hoping everyone is safe in those winds but as a fencing contracting business owner I hope at most everyone's fence blows down. Seriously though it could be a pain.

I always said this and that the model discussion should be spilt into north ,south especially during these periods. With this current setup I'm expecting a foot of snow in my location over the festive period but Barty Hater is expecting blowtorch south westerlies. Be good if posters could be a bit more general or use their regional threads more and not just focus on their backyard as this is misleading many members. P.s The only reason I use Bartyhaters name is because he is probably one of our most southern members and it's not directed at him

I get where you're coming from being from South Cornwall but that isn't a representation of the UK and the general theme of moving into a colder phase of weather from the 18th onwards. Anyways it's all FI so everything is took with a pinch of salt

I find this misleading... Don't get me wrong I would prefer a better cold source than a polar Maritime (my least favourite weather pattern) and a decent blocking, but to use the words "very poor" for cold is way off the mark. If these charts verify get yourself out on a local hill in those 30mph winds in your shorts and t-shirt for a few hours and I bet you won't be saying that.

With the advancement in technology and IT and this is what two supercomputers come up with a couple of hours apart . I love the chase but this is draining. Just off to make up my own forecast . Has as much chance a verifing...

They even have the exact time the Nordic snow wall hits too! 6pm on the 22nd

Mogreps also seem to take a nosedive from the 13th as posted by Matt Wolves.