Cheese Rice
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Town had a hefty hail storm. PXL_20240415_182808065.mp4
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheese Rice replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don't think anyone would have a problem with a cold crisp northerly. Would be an improvement over the current dross. -
UKV has upgraded the feature and pushed it further inland.
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Looking at the UKV I would say 300m+ event if that.
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UKV has a more organised feature for East Yorkshire which could even provide lying snow to low lying areas.
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Yeah I'm expecting cold rain at this elevation, any wintriness above 200m.
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Yeah UKV isn't too bullish but the NMM looks juicy.
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Tim A always loved the walk to ASDA at night in the snow, any excuse to walk out in it.
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Day 10 by the river is 30m plus urban heat island effect. The northern part of the city centre is 60m though.
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Surprised to see lying snow in Leeds city centre at sea level.
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damianslaw south and west Yorkshire always do well. Of course I've moved to snow shield Manchester city centre.
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Up toward LBA it should stay as snow till 1am. So potentially plenty more to come. But could also be a bit too marginal for any notable accumulation.
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I suspect it'll keep back building so heavier pulses still for the region. Becoming increasingly marginal from 5pm.
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Schnee ha not in Bradford its not. No nervous drivers there.
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I've thrown in the towel for this neck of the woods unfortunately. Maybe a bit of sleet in the heavier burst.
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Its a percentage probability. I would say there's a 40-50% chance if it working out better than expected as its so finely balanced. I wouldn't be surprised if many places see 5cm of snow tomorrow inland but I also wouldn't be surprised if it snows/sleets all day but doesn't settle. No one can say for certainty in this scenario.
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Yeah I imagine Sheffield will do better than Leeds.
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A high ground only event I'm afraid. Even in the heavier echoes its showing as rain for places like Leeds.
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Yeah big downgrade from previous runs, wouldn't expect widespread 10-15cm in the amber areas unless your 200m+.
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Seems to be a correction south on the latest runs. What that means for Manchester I'm not sure as I'm not familiar with the snow shield here. If I was to be anywhere right now it would be high ground Sheffield as the sweet spot.
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It seems like there is a correction south of the initial front. Most likely putting Sheffield in the firing lane.
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With snowfall like this its impossible to call, a lot of varying factors, wind direction, evaporating cooling, intensity of ppn etc. Much harder to forecast than your standard NW'ly flow. Will be a nowcast situation for anyone below 150m, no doubt there'll be some surprises along the way.
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Some decent totals for inland areas from the first front, really knife edge stuff for low ground could go either way.
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Probably going to be another everywhere but the area stretching from Liverpool to Manchester (nothing knew there). The second front is looking like rain across the board but hopefully the first one brings some wintry flavour.
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UKV seems to have upgraded somewhat looking more knife edge scenario for low ground where as at one point it was a none starter.
