geordiekev

Really is kick in the teeth after such a long drawn out Winter but not complaining. D11 of falling about half of seasonal average for me, so March has some catching up

Nice huge flakes now & settling quite easily

Bit of a sleety mix just starting

With the unreliability of most of the models/teleconnections beyond 10 days, it's a brave person to make forecasts out to the far envelope of possibilities which is different obviously depending on location & altitude. For me, as Cambrian states it's the lack of an organised trop PV which I feel has blighted the usual IMBY opportunities, as 10 falling days is below average thus far up here. The 'normal' zonal pattern does nearly always present gaps in the Griceland area for a good old omega block but this seasons disjointed & disorganised tPV patterns, due to the early Canadian warming, won't be on my Christmas list next year for sure. My birthday after mid month does more often than not end up snowy, so for me I'll hold out till 21st with the towel

blizzard81 for me there's amplitude & waves about if not in our locale, will hopefully work it's way around, much like a skipping rope. I'm starting to come to the conclusion, I'm not a fan of fragmented PV as pretty much zero Polar Maritime incursions this season, which yeah doesn't deliver for all but at least it's some excitement every few weeks & a strong ESB storm does often pump up WAA towards Greeny. Still, we get what we're given but 10 days of falling snow, for me, is a bit poor given the supposed signals

Chris Smith yeah, same height as here & 3cm on grass though has been marginal so quite wet snow but enough to cause issues on main roads. Still only D9 of snow, which is v poor

Finally got a covering & the crimbo tree that is acting as a windbreaker for the greenhouse got it's first flakes

NorthEastSnow yeah mates near coast just rain still. Had snow a bitb earlier but mostly light graupel. The apps suggest a few hours of it but looking at radar, certainly seems altitude required

Quite heavy flakes now though still waiting to settle on grass

Certainly an interesting 10 days ahead & lack of moisture, at least, won't be the issue. The sweet spots still to be resolved I'd have thought but I'd not push ECM 12z out of bed

blizzard81 yip & the high winds this weekend doing a good job of drying the swamps out

Pleasant change to have some interest & cooling down before the mid month interest, as dreaded the idea of a long drawn out chase, whilst wading through 2 weeks of upgrades/downgrades

Amazing how far South the disintegrated tPV is pushing the jet South, until you get to the Atlantic ofcourse then that Northern Arm just too strong to be of any use atm

Yeah GFS was toying with this extending to create an Arctic High, which did look interesting but dropped the idea but if Pacific High gets legs, who knows...

Have to say watching the Northern Hemisphere on the GFS is mesmerising, watching the trop pv just disintegrate & well within the reliable, so the jet will be squeezed South hemispherically which surely must increase our chances. And if that Arctic High enters the game at t267, surely a further push South.... Screen_Recording_20240127_181058_Chrome.mp4