cheshire snow

Iceaxecrampon she can say yes to me anytime of the yearOh sorry you mean the snow prospects my bad…..

Day 10 spot on very unusual but not unheard of for ECM to be wrong at short notice GFS yet again going off on one,it is been very consistent I will give it that and totally against the ECM and the EPS.

Ah the warning debate,again a warning not a guarantee,I think they have used there own model for the warning and would expect the ECM to be more accurate,would not be surprised to see warning upgraded to amber by Wednesday. very early estimates and not a ramp at this stage would be 5-7cm low ground before turning back to rain,anywhere 150m plus looking at a significant event here 15-20cm quite possible will wait to after the event to judge.

severe snowstorm No seriously though I do think the track of the low is coming into view now maybe a bit more North/South saga to come,but overall I would now back the ECM as been about correct position at such short range.

A very interesting update below for Thursday,possibly an early warning. wording suggests a lengthy spell of snow before turning back to rain during Friday at lower levels.

BBC weather on just now graphics very similar to the ECM,obviously as always stated the uncertainty but did say it was the likely outcome,and with temperatures south of Brum at 9c you would think it won’t be far off.

Day 10 indeed mate not a done deal by any means it’s has been an okay day but need some upgrades tomorrow.

Day 10 it would but don’t look at the next frame ECM control looking very nice in the extended.

FWIW GFS18z very similar to the ECM

Just to follow on from previous post thickness levels need to be at 540 or below for snow so you can see from the first image it is marginal for southern parts of the region,uppers are a bit meh again for southern parts of the region,but evap cooling would come into effect in heavier PPN.Still four days to go and time for a slight push south(never thought I would say that)Really hope we can all see a good spell of snow on Thursday,but to say we will looking at a snow chart at 96hrs would be misleading, let’s see what tomorrows ECM has to say.

Just a step back from the ECM snow charts and to be totally realistic these charts are not screaming disruptive snow to me further north and higher up maybe but a bit underwhelming to be honest.

Day 10 post it in the mod thread sure to get deleted

UKMO

Pure and utter filth of course it will change between now and then.

That is a fantastic from the GFS a new chase about to start?

@Catacol fantastic post.

And boom it’s gone goodbye cold spell a few days break then onto the next chase.

@Cheshire Freeze have no idea how it is showing this

LOL

Snow here now.

All the best hope all goes well.

Yes please these showers look slow moving a few cm quite possible very similar to Tuesday morning also rolling through the timeline a possible streamer setting up be a nice way to end this cold spell,still maintain that February is looking very interesting,looking at the models at the moment you would think I am mad suggesting such a thing I look at it at the atmosphere resetting itself.Give it seven days or so and I am sure the models will look more interesting.

Well if you live Liverpool Cheshire NW midlands the forecast on just now on the BBC was fantastic presenter stated that the snow showers could turn heavy tomorrow evening and amounts will depend on were the snow showers aline.

Small trough on the fax chart which is probably going to produce the snow showers later tomorrow in the south of the region.

Absolutely but one last covering before the dross takes over for the next 10 days or so would be nice. Then towards HP developments over Scandinavia