SNOW_JOKE

For me the interest in today lies more with the forecast PPN totals and temperatures as a result of the airmass interaction and not expecting anything thundery, the meto giving some high rainfall amounts in the south and east midlands for today and overnight, plus temps are also a interest given that it's now mid-summer and barely getting above 12'c at times for us in the north/northwest/midlands *not factoring in windchill*

And to think people down-south only a week ago were moaning about the lack of storms forecasted for that predicted (but failed) thundery breakdown.

Just two piddly rumbles of thunder in the far-distance since yesterday afternoon, on the plus side at least things have cooled down and it'll be less oppressive temps for the weekend.

Sferics inbound to Hull, small but sweet core with that cell that appeared in the past 20min.

Sat24 showing subtle hints of convection around Manchester, nothing showing on the radar and it's likely too late for anything to materialise now anyway. Giving it until 2.30am then it's off to bed.

Important to emphasize that the Met Office yellow warning doesn't expire until 2am in the morning and anything can happen within 3 hours, personally i'm calling it a night at 3am but whatever happens my eye is fixed on the RADAR for any signs of further developments.

One of the best storms i've ever seen formed from literally within the hour over the Peak District back when I was little, around the time of 3am when the forecast said that the evening was going to be uneventful. Constant strobes of light lasting for well up to 30 minutes as it passed and still sticks in my mind. Likewise a few winters back there was a trough which brought a localised thundery cell over the western Peak District and that was again out of nowhere and completely unexpected. Even now peering out the window into the low dusk-light i'm seeing a AcCas tower rising up around the Macclesfield area.

The main limitation of the situation is the questionable extent and timing of initiation. Models suggest isolated initiation at best in the late afternoon and evening hours, while e.g. ECMWF suggests that widespread elevated convection occurs in the early morning to noon period over N England. Initiation of surface based storms will likely depend on the development of local convergence zones during the afternoon hours. Large scale upward motion from the approaching short-wave trough will likely be too late to considerably reduce the CIN. The presence of abundant cirrus ahead of the approaching trough may hinder surface heating and mixing of the boundary layer. Hoping ECMWF is right.

CAPE is still high all the way up to 3am across the north, northwest, midlands, and the east. If nothing materializes by then i'll be calling it a night.

It's beginning to look like it, it's such an elusive feature for now that until convective initiation along the line begins will it become more evident.

Took some time to appear but I believe this is the trough now starting to form with vertical placement of the cells and more of a easterly movement in them. Wind-vectors shows a convergence taking place over Cheshire into Mersyside aswell which is indicative of it. Going to be watching this over the next hour and see what happens further north and south.

Looking out for a more vertical line of precip breaking out on the radar as so-far everything has been more orientated horizontally, this will be indicative of the elusive trough.

It's a complicated setup as I think a lot of people are assuming the cold-front is initiating the storms, in simpler terms what's causing the forecast storms for tonight is a developing trough ahead of the cold-front. Which is what i'm keeping a eye on via wind and satellite data.

That's the cold-front, the trough at that time is the -10li moving out into the North Sea.

This is the Meto Surface Pressure at midnight, the trough in the North Sea is currently what's moving east. The one behind it is where the storms will be breaking out along the boundary.