mezzacyclone

No real change overnight in structure nor Intensity and the disturbance still appears to acquire 2 or even more vortices, 1 North and 1 South of Puerto Rico? Recon to investigate again later today but even more inconsistency in the models now as the US Eastern seaboard trough looks to be digging well South and East out of the Carolinas as we speak?

wow, If only the Atlantic could be as favorable as the EPac? But Baja may be keeping a close eye on this one?

etc etc.I thought the distance apart from the apparent vortices was close so thats a good spot but I`m yet to be convinced their isn`t 2 LLC`s? But coincidentally speaking, this was Pouch 16 & 17 off Africa!

I think so (2 llc`s?) yes!

TS strength (+40kn) surface est. winds in NE sector on recent obs: (16.6N 57.5W): these are 300 mile due East of Guadelope??? so as SB stated above theirs confusing data? but generally its messy with no consolidation still?

Where we await the hopeful COC to shed some light on a palpable path as the differences on ECM`s trough intensity and GFS more Westerley ridging keeps everyone guessing at future "Cristobal"? doing an Irene or a fishy? ASCAT imagery looks inconclusive as far as I can muster? Interesting times ahead is a given

What wonders a little MJO can do eh SB? Some following here on but by the looks of the latest I favour a TC soon and beyond then,,,,,?

It aint much but its better than `nowt - Ladies and Gents please welcome Invest 95L, High Lat & the usual SAL ahead to contend with (sinking air & low sst`s/anoms aside for a moment) but modelled to stay on a shallow WNW course so not fully condemned fishy hence slim pickings but at least sumthin for the immediate future?

Reckon 94L got their attention with the initial pouch formation/size and WV present as the SAL sure looks a factor to prevent dev in the coming days although Jeff Masters also got interested yesterday? raised and lowered the 5day possibility % so a creeper and imagery watch SB?

What a fascinating place siberia is, I yearn to vacate to yakutsk one day, but winters their are like old russia itself and cannot be properly explained with just the spoken or written word? Thanks for the topic knocker!

In a one line brief summary, does anyone have a valid opinion of why last years outcome differed vastly from the seasons projection before events, or lack of, unfolded? (Albeit above avg EPAC activity but little in the way of major NA landfalls) And in relation, what are the probabilities of the success of this years forecast? , I'm very sceptical of this years view from the onset but only just started divulging the info,,,

Was that farkin predicting the last throws of Winter with his mid-Jan cut-off due to his flocking "Grebes" sumthin or other? I recall Steve M`s great videos that raised hopes in the Bartlett days

Any morning gloom following last nights inevitable false "18z pub run dream" ? Yesterdays downgrades were spot on imo, given the numerous factors, but we were lead down the path good style wednesday! I'll believe JH and his 500's over a series of the big 4's plots anyday!

NDBC displaying buoy 62029 just under 300 miles W of the scilly Isles (or Isles of scilly pedantically speaking ) gives pressure lowering rapidly now with a 2mb fall in between the 1pm & 2pm reading currently @ 998mb. Sevenstones lightship buoy lies 300 mile ENE roughly between IOS & mainland Cornwall so we could monitor this buoy to determine the wind direction and plot the path? Anyone have a link providing the latest jet stream pattern for oscillations and upper level divergence?

high-school-level algebra ,,,I`ll get mi coat,,, then again "feint heart never won fair lady" so I`ll give it a bash as its interesting and beats wasting surf-time by never learning anything? kudos Fergus

recon heading SE into the system are putting up much weaker numbers to match the lower water vapour imagery we are seeing along with a clear degrading of TS Karen, Maybe ingested dry air to the west as possible cause but the original higher shear value forecast looks less a threat than initially to me inspite of us in Oct now (click) so we may see her get together again after D-min? Intensity still looks concentrated nearer western Cuba with dissipation and weakening on its western elongated flank. Maybe hot towers throwing up east off Cancun coastline on the latest floater imagery? here ,,,,1002.6mb near centre 80 mile N of Yucatan far N coast @ Rio lagartos,,,, *upd* 1001.7mb 10 mile NE of previous mark, Interesting point if its plausible shear has forced convection E & N giving false weakening appearance as pressure is still falling? everything seems to be changing by the minute with this one?

what we got then SB? lookin the best all season so far but what effects will the trough have? Late sunday 999mb cat 1 SW of panama city on last GFS run so we`ll see if they re-draw much. seems to have slowed but forming better and swelling size although reps of far west outflow fading out are not valid AFAIK? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-animated.gif special adv hot of the press btw > clicker

recon in now, measured 63knots/72.4mph Flight lev winds 100 mile NNW of Cancun, I offer we can say Karen is a given with a NHC special adv imminent?

Former invest 95L has been raised to TD 6 in the southern bay of campeche, Gulf of Mexico, but is highly likely to reach landfall on the Mexican shore within 12hrs given Westerly heading but current recon may provide data to raise to TS status prior.

Recon=Teal71 has been on the runway at Biloxi miss. for 3 hrs? So the wait goes on to see if 95L will be classified and named,,,,, *upd* (21:31 BST) renamed AF309 recently left lou. coastline @ 25K ft & headed SW to "area of interest" etc. In all interests landfall will be soon but I`m sure we will have a busy time coming along starting as early as tomorrow looking at the structure of the waves and "pouches" rolling off W Africa?

Limited sea track, as above states, but cold tops forming quickly this morning so maybe 95L "could" make Fernand(o)? Hawk recon later this afternoon still a go as of latest but a closed low looks likely but I have not seen any ASCAT imagery for westerly wind evidence?

Etc.,,,,,,More plusses namely the MJO`s "2nd coming" must surely see September as a Major burst of activity in the atlantic`s MDR?Folks in the usually affected inhabited parts of the world never want anything more than a remnant Low once in a while but I would have liked something before now as the bubble has to burst some time or other?Some likes of Fernando and successors will no doubt over shadow Andrea, Barry etc etc?Ensembles predicting numerous Low developments from the forthcoming waves off Africa so let`s see once the couple after Erin, or what was Erin, put pay to the severity of the Dry sal air and the higher MJO index back in 1 & 2 increase chances of cyclone activity come the end of next week and onward into the true height of the season.

"low shear" and "warm sst`s" in the Central Pacific? never been so Interesting, personally speaking anyway as this surely is against the norm?

92L: Evidence of westerly winds as it begins to show signs of tightening up? Clicky Noticed the axis wave moving ahead of the system which signified the end of Dorian`s (or may have been Chantal`s?) overall development in the latter stages & never truly got going failing to stack with lack of the low & mid levels aligning? Quite impressive already no less with outflow signs although looks are very deceiving as we have seen so far this season but will Yucatan landfall, if the path allows?, leave the disturbance intact? GOM shear threats may restrict growth but 29-30°C sst`s on the positive side could yield a low end Cat raising concerns in Southern US states, Recon tomorrow for a better picture but will we have TS status by then or will 93L get their first?

GFS & NAVGEM are toying with a development leaving Yucatan early next weekend tracking North through the GOM GFS has a low end TS for Miss-Ala-West Fl and NAV borderline cat1 high end TS for Louisiana. ECM shows little to no activity but has thrown a wobbler so far this season with just about everything in the Atlantic (barry chan & Dori) but also latest in not picking up Utor crossing the N Phillipines as we speak? So all eyes on the Sthrn GOM next weekend for potential as an alternative to the busy fish in the EPAC