mezzacyclone

1st major hurricane of the season for E(north)PAC, Blas is only being slowed somewhat by moderate shear but it will be interesting too see how intense this becomes before cooler waters diminish it?

The extraordinary flat start to the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has finally kicked off! 96E is modelled (latest 12z gfs, dartboard low) to be a major 'cane extremely close to Hawaii? which is not totally FI & has merit for a major hot on the heels of current rapidly intensifying Cat 2 Blas, both no threat to Mexico & steered west by the CA ridge. Will a pending favorable MJO phase bring some activity & credence of at least a low end cat cyclone to the caribbean/GOM etc come mid/late July?

Yep, overzealousness with the models it appeared, Recon was cancelled as this is going to amount to no more than heavy rain for mexico, south of where TS Danielle made landfall, interest or fallacy in the gfs hinting on a GOM "earl" ts or low-end 'cane at the end of the 1st week of July? record low shear for June in the area is the simple basic & obvious longevity of plain waves making it thru & developing, if only to a minimum, but something tells me a big CV will overshadow any EPAC ferocity as we reach late august into Sep but could we see anything take advantage of the current favorable west caribbean/ yucatan plateau conditions? as its clear EN's played its swansong & we are either at least neutral or headed into LN?

Hot on the heels of the short but sweet Danielle comes a disturbance over the east coast of quintana roo/yucatan Mexico, just north of Belize. some models going with another TS in 48hrs time? But its very similar to 94l in many ways although an upper level low is clearing away NW-wards & shear dosnt look as strong as it did in the early stages of the previous but little sea track over the BOC may just see this near TD? Recon may investigate once this leaves the yucatan pen but somethings definitely aiding development of the waves off the itcz in the area currently!

Thanks for your previous sb well, we have TS DANIELLE >51kn fl lev winds confirmed TS, (1007mb cent pressure recorded but not confirmed) the 4th named storm of the season so far, incredible. ships shear forecast saturday swung it for me with low 5-10kn figures for early monday & the stalling over the BOC gave it time to organise, currently moving WNW around 5knots & expected to reach mainland eastern mexico a couple of hrs either side of midnight, Next NHC advisory at 4pm. Looks like a busy few months ahead?

Ive not been keeping watch over the ITCZ waves but are their indicators as to why so many or making it thru and/or reforming so early? will follow the hunters later & see how this does or dont form, i'm in the latters favor despite 20-30kn shear & assume a TD at the least for Mex landfall!

50/50 chance of a TD from this development currently leaving the Yucatan peninsula & headed WNW around 10mph over the bay of campeche. Recon to investigate 94L tomorrow although dry air is evident nearby & shear will contine to affect, but sst's are highly favorable & the geography of the BOC helps development, Texan ridge steers westwards away from mainland southern states but we could see TS Danielle at mexican landfall late monday/early tuesday? More interest to whats become a volatile start to this years season!

Interesting early start to the season for a change regardless? 90% formation so its nailed on & it will be great to read the hunter obs later today so early in June

"kowd this moornin int it" :/ Full cloud cover, gentle northerly, 49.5F, 78% humidity, 18 days until they start becoming shorter, but at least the great tits seem to be finding food for the chicks easily

Did anyone catch TS's bbc1 late forecast last night? "rapidly going downhill from the west" looks something of an overstatement? as rainfalls southern extent looks to be just skirting the northern coast of N IRE? (latest 9am radar image) whereas Shafernaeker had a full rain band sweeping just about all of the uk? Unless the cold front is further behind the warm just out of radar coverage with the occluded portion further north? funny feeling the AH as more influence here lookin at the 500 charts but hey, wadoo i know?

Yep, I postponed work today on the strength of a deluge pre-forecasted, epic fail for me by the beeb weather team :/ Jonas lost himself in the southern peak district for a lot of south yarkshire today! Dunno what to do regs outdoor work tomoz now? but a more veered approach from the fronts may leave us more prone to ppn tmoz, dependant on Microclimate muddles & misnomers.

In laymens terms dare you write off winter pal? I am 100% convinced of this years 97-98 EN breaker being behind every relevant news story from recent aussie drought fires & our own flooding to eastern US heat & more. lots are clutching at straws for something seasonal but id like to see views regarding the current enso situation determining what realistic opportunities lay ahead for everything pv, ssw, ao, nao cetera?

But how much turbo charged enso coupling firing atmospheric rivers of olr across the atlantic at us will eat up of that pm? the 2015-16 EN will impact many far & wide across the globe - no s*** sherlock!

Ya never know, the culmination of cohens support of an imminent disrupted PV & EN steadfast in its strong + position could improve our chances of finally returning to those east/west battlefields winters past late 70's early 80's? Just for Interest, I cant recall the winter of dec97 - mar98 in relation to the last (may 97 to dec 97 +1.7 avg) strongest EN event & subsequent winter?

I wouldnt be so sure according to the atmospheric & enviro research centre mjo? "The polar cap geopotential height anomaly plot continues to show a strong stratospheric polar vortex into the foreseeable future" Yet further into their latest report it becomes ambiguous? "the models predict a fairly robust pulse of vertical wave activity flux (WAFz) or vertical energy transfer next week that is predicted to perturb the stratospheric polar vortex and cause it to begin weakening" Just a bit 'chicken & the egg' syndrome to me?

Maybe see flooding hitting the news prior to the possible cold snap next w/e as most rivers are above average despite a generally drier day overall? (Dry most of the day here but the Don has been above the avg datum all day so far?) All eyes on the ouse no doubt though from monday night onwards? (Managed to time a couple of days in Whitby next weekend to an interesting period regs the weather tho? )

I always have Pits data refreshing for WB`s DP`s etc> Clicky

Natural evolution to try establishing further probability of higher accuracy outcomes?But ive no idea if NCEP will make a switch & drop the former when the testing phase is done, maybe after gauging said accuracy? The increased res is obvious over the operational but the new "grib filters" are bandwidth intensive due to increased file size But here are the major changes fwiw? *T1534 Semi-Lagrangian. *More accurate spectral-grid transforms. *Reduced grid consistency when creating orographic fields. *Use of high resolution daily SST analysis. *Use of high resolution sea ice. *Physics: **Cloud estimate modifications. **EDMF parameterization. **Dissipation heating paramterization. **Convective gravity wave drag. **McICA. **Modify how GFS diagnoses snow accumulation to be consistent with post. **Land Surface - Removal of soil moisture nudging. *Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble. *Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64. *Analysis upgrades - See global GSI implementation roadmap. *Post Processor: **Faster/less memory version. **Updated version to use new crtm 2.1.3. **Add user requested fields: ***H/T/U/V at FL410. ***Ozone at 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, and 400 mb. ***2m dew point. ***Wind chill and heat index. ***Instantaneous precipitation type. ***Membrane SLP in GDAS pgb files. **Improved in flight icing algorithm in post. **Consolidation of GFS master file creation with GFS DNG, similation of GOES radiances and WAFS. All a bit jargonistic but if anything then i favor the last line of your post (cut short sorry) in that of the many variables? We are all spoilt in this digital age so I also hazard a guess that like "MP"s in Westminster then simply "the more the merrier"? (More being this new venture/tryout)

Unless i'm encountering "excessive crimbo tipple wobble syndrome"? Then can you please edit your post BA? (Sorry but "ecm" & "ecm" dont compute at this hour for me after a fair few leffe blonde beers )& also in relation to "SK"'s valued input, then what increased possibilities regarding ridges and/or location specific events etc, (away from the 'G Spot' of Greenland & should this increased union of Atlantic strat warming occur?) determine? (More apols for one too many commas? but i'm sure us "old skool" get the gist?)

Came down a local hill sideways thanks to crappy new fangled ABS? Then me n missycyclone had to scrape wet "low friction" slush out under the tyres but it took me back to the late 70's/early 80's being stuck up redmires with no mobile fones etc in blizzard "channel low easterly frontal snow" , but humble pie today siding with the charts to predict snow when its clear local last minute info rules!

Estimating 41% chances of snow at this moment in time (based on pits live weather data & location/height etc, 2.7 air temp + 1.2 DP = 3.9 amalgamation therefore 41%) (If A > 7 prob. snow is very small If A=7 prob. snow = 10% A=6 20% A=5 30% A=4 40% A=3 50% A=2 60% A=1 70% A=0 80% or more) But very unsure of this ratio to predict snowfall?

Gap in the 2 bands around Carlisle, kind of an "S" shape to all the ppn? But as you said SB: clearly pivotted.

Yes, around 30-50 mile south of Glasgow & Edinburgh looks like the furthest Northern limit its going to get?

Some ways to go yet to increase the probability in my "kneck o the woods" 26% chance of snowfall using "Pits" live weather data 3.6c air temp & 1.8c dew pt, and his stations relatively higher up than most parts of SYorks (but a chance these will lower slightly?) Far from convinced with ALL the vital 500, 850, DP & DAM charts So i'm being realistic in seeing a brief "back edge" event a few hrs either side of midnight tonite at sub 600ft levels, late conditional changes permitting of course? Current PPN Band looks roughly aligned Blackpool to Leicester?

etc, ,and technically better too! : 55mph surf wind estimates 18.050N 65.267W & extrap surface pressure 1007mb 18.867N 66.650W, Could we have a COC taking over somewhere North of a line between DR and PR before tomorrow?