mezzacyclone

Just goes to show RI due to such favorable conditions can make a large impressive organised 'cane from a TS in 24hrs! & yes, given more time this would have definitely become a major! certainly given a lot to consider for the next few month?

NHC Special Update at 9pm BST indicated sustained 75mph surface winds hence final requiremant for category 1 hurricane status. expected Belize landfall tomorrow early (local) morning, Earl has become a large cyclone with TS winds up to 140+ miles out of centre, favorable circumstances allow for further slight strengthening off the honduran coast but weakening upon land interaction. minimal re-intensification upon exiting Campeche, Mexico expected due to brief exposure over the BOC.

Hurricane status imminent? noaa recon in honduras bay area finding est surface 65mph winds & 987mb extrapolated pressure, managing to stay of coast enough to slightly strengthen, slight meander WNW/NW-wards but still belize landfall.

a false 998mb 16.317N 80.733W (just under 200 mile NE of the Hond/Nic coastal border point) was recorded but higher accuracy HDOB`s put the lowest officially at 1002mb. aircraft returning to base now. Looking as though a big change is required if this does not landfall into Belize? but re-intensification exiting campeche into the southern BOC could be interesting as well as any more northern trajectory? 7pm update should detail max sus 50mph winds & slight strengthening,,,

NHC has classified previous invest 97L as a tropical storm between Jamaica & the Honduras/Nicaraguan coast. See above link, 2nd advisory at 7pm bst.

touching 50mph peak surface winds, this has GOT to be enough for TS Earl now?

Recon developed aircraft maintenance issues just prior to sweeping the outer bands yesterday evening & returned to base. Out now & last data suggests a centre!!! 14:42:00 - 16.167N 80.000W From 285° at 1 knots (From the WNW at ~ 1.2 mph) 14:42:30Z16.183N 79.983W 14:42:30 - 16.183N - 79.983W From 133° at 9 knots (From the SE at ~ 10.4 mph)

Yeah, i'm busy with work :/ anyone run by the recon data n post here? lookin at NW surface winds SSW of Jamaica rite now!

Recon yet to descend, last fix approaching Jamaica, approx 200-250 mile west of 97L outer bands,nothing but Easterly winds so far,,, ***UPDATE*** NHC special headline: Recon aircraft returning home due to maintenance issues,,, That`s scuppered more clarity on classification then? Just goes to show how difficult a fast transitting disturbance is to define an LLC to confirm TC status?

97L (or "Earl" in the making) has very cold tops this morning with its better still organisation, +40kn sustained winds yet still no LLC? Almost certain however for classification later today,,, As for 96l then i think someone cloned another portion of the atlantic & pasted over it? as its been dropped completely?

Was wondering "when" & not "if" Recon was gonna be scheduled? off out to investigate area south & west of Jamaica Tues 18z. & to prove this thread isnt just about 97L then take a peak at Ens plans for the lurking underdog 96!

Its speed (predicted 29mph up to 48hrs out) is the only condition holding this back for sure! just cleared through Martinique but any interaction with Jamaica shouldnt pose to much of a problem, maybe yucatan will further down the line but we know how the BOC can revitalise the minimalist of disturbances? the THCP from here on is ripe so its just a matter of holding off the 30kn sector of shear, its all about the southern states ridge strength regards US or Mex landfall? thrilling stuff

97l became the "form horse" yesterday when 96 ingested a fresh plume of saharan air and became disorganised, the forums are buzzing across the pond about 97 but a bigger worry are the phenomenal ssts! hwrf has a track into the yucatan & after that anythings possible for re-intensification in the BOC, id say if this can survive the 30kn shear sector south of DR then a TS is nailed on in the least? talk of the pre-requisite 26C sst's only 200 mile south of NYC has got folk spooked, i lost the remarkable gif's comparing sst's in the Atlantic with this time last year & present but they were stark contrasts! anyway, this disturbance (now at 60% dev possibilities, 5 days) is lot to keep eye on for a while.

97 looks paltry this morning yes but 96 has popped an impressive looking mcs overnight on its merry itcz train:

Ok, to further complicate matters, the wave prior to what became 96L is now up with invest 97L , a few hundred miles due W OF 96. theirs a multiude of circumstances such as RH & OHC thrown into the current mix to decide the outcome of both these potential developments besides the usual foreplayers so i hope one or both of them reach TD status With a confirmed LLC (although 96l had/has some mid-level circulation?) so we can have seperate threads? :/ personally i dont have a clue as to which or both of these reaches the 60W longitude boundary entry into the caribbean etc intact at the minute?

#UPD# Another area of drier dusty air is plotted to leave western sahara/mauritania through friday so this maybe a factor why the models suppress 96L development between 40-60 degs W as this sal plume catches up & gets ingested, increasing shear on the latest runs in the western tropical atlantic is also now appearing but mid-long term shear forecasts are prone to innaccuracy so anythings possible further down the line.

Steering trades are forecast to lessen slightly from 25mph to 15-20mph if that would aid dev? but talk suggests the next pouch will favor yet more from 96 here "clearing out" the dry (sal) environment but previous to this current one then the last few days have seen waves encroach into the sal & aid every following aew with more wv and/or less drier/dusty air? (seem to recall reading somewhere that vortical high towers, fundamental to TS genesis?, can form & maintain in up to 10kn of horizontal steering winds so it could be borderline "touch n go"?) i'm not a "hamper" (hurricane wisher) but i havnt seen the NHC back down on an "orange" severity many times!

NHC bullish? 96L is currently a shallow system at 10.2N 17.6W ,1011mb headed W around 25mph with a wind radius of 60 naut miles maxing out at 23mph but with clear closed low winds. 40% through 5 days may reflect nothing currently severe to impede development so every chance to keep it intact across the mdr? in the very least Id say we can all agree on the next batch exiting W Africa are something intriguing to follow given current conditions?

Well its up! The latest meaty pouches might not be sprouting VHT's but NHC are on with the microwave imagery & following the far eastern atlantic with 10% 48hr & 20% 5 day development chances. the basin wakens from her siesta?

Of which how many would you see as fish? interestingly high amplitude to the monsoon trough over Africa currently! Organised deep convection & high as 20'N lat, this should increase wv & restrict the affect of SAL as this AEW heads west 'tord CV & is raising short term TC activity for the tropical atlantic area reflected in data mods: Nhc will no doubt be following these latest batch of waves particularly with epac genesis calming down?

The million $ question! & yes, 2005 was quite a year wasnt it! I'm in the opinion that we are beginning a "state of flux" as it were? but that can easily tie in to the usual timeframe where a flat july precedes a more (how much?) active august for development. the current ACE value of 6.8 for the ATL will surely mount in the next few weeks but if this relates to the mjo returning to phase 1&2, la nina impending in august, the short term heightened shear pattern in the EPAC, Anomolously high caribbean/GOM SST's & many factors mentioned in above posts affecting the ITCZ Then they all have some impact, the models are now picking up on traces for certain but only to drop "fantasy island" fashion with little general consensus at the current minute. Not to allay & overhype but certain posters, (FL area residents) on other forums talk of a "ticking time bomb" & a matter of not "if" but "when" a major 'cane landfalls? but if anything id generalise saying the cups "half full" now from "half empty" in terms of cyclonic energy potential in the (most interesting) Atl basin as we approach August & the fleeting closed lows showing up on most of the models & ens reflect this attitude. noteworthy of nhc's lessening of EPAC mid-term forecast activity! case of identifying the tiniest short term agreement in a given area, florida to carolinas east coast & northern & eastern GOM for me

Despite the addage "one basin being active = other inactive" then is NE US /SE Canadian troughing a big player in encouraging stable sinking SAL ridden air throughout the MDR by elongating AH more? as quoted then maybe its more worthy to concentrate short term on the caribbean/GOM & the v high sst's for vorticity to develop on a remnant AEW until the epac levels of instability level off closer? putting a line through most of July now on for Atl activity?

Maybe not so? (SB above) some model consensus with a closed low coming off guinea next mid-week, some going fishy with continuing thru the MDR with a nw run up to bermuda but some show a lesser antiles track with a more vigorous Azores ridge, something to watch at least following the plague of current saharan dust inhibiting development in what was an active start! for what its worth: *update 210716* gfs weakened this on the next 2 runs then dropped it altogether, so we are back to scratching a continuing stable MDR plagued by SAL for the tiniest signs, it reminds me of the old eventless mr bartlett days :/ lol

Now cat 4, 140mph max sustained winds, pretty impressive! Blas 06.07.16