mezzacyclone

It amazed me how it almost doubled in strength (wind speed) for 12 hrs from 6pm yesterday evening to this morning!!!! thats Ultra-RI? rinse n repeat through the Bahamas?

Matthew continues to surprise then,,, still under 270degs tracking, deeper & deeper dvorak numbers, only the most recent slight digest of drier air into the NW sector that will be shrugged off, have any ewrc's taken place or has he just tightened up more & more? However i'm not 100% convinced of the plots? as if the short term paths have been incorrect then whats to place trust in the longer term? Matthew was already further West yesterday than the initial models and a lot of folk would very well wish a saving path right into mexico would continue akin to Emily?,,,But the developing trough over the GOM makes this more or less impossible hence northern turn. But in most likelihood of the turn today then: Jamaica's population is 2.8 million, half of which is urban, the loss of life is impossible to judge accurately but Matthew will be the breaking news Monday across the world, according to current trajectory where fatalities could well run into hundreds? Yet it cant be denied that landfall by a major 'cane in the Atlantic GOM etc basin was well overdue?

941mb, 150mph surface peaks, 140mph sustained surface winds, 13.8N 71.5W roughly 450 SE of kingston town, the pouch & wave that became 97L is now fully mature hurricane Matthew ready to devastate any land in his path. todays RI has been amazing!

well lets see what the herc msn 9 headed SW out of st croix can find? how low can he go? already a history maker, remarkable.

now thats one phenomenen i want to see before my times up! a 50k ft vertical wall cloud! :O

latest leg in the north quad found 130mph peak surface winds @ 13.700N 71.400W 19:45 21:21 edit: last dropsonde (17th 19:55) indicated surface level winds of 139mph, and when was strengthening forecast to abate/hold? are the last frames (19:45 utc) finally showing no southern element to westward trajectory?

latest 113mph (cat 2) peak surface gust 13.567N 71.433W, what factors officially signify a cat 3?

& last VDM confirming L. Closed Wall (= indicating eyewall completely surrounded by thunderstorms)

last couple of frames showing most intense ppn jigged spreading slightly SW perilously close to La Guajira dept of Colombias N coast?

NHC have not "erred" on the side of caution and underestimated intensity? Jamaica in the firing line for a devastating weekend? Matthews certainly proving not to be a usual run-of-the-mill cyclone? centre currently just under 500mile SE of kingston Town.

Yeah, intense cold tops now (dont see green tops yet alone whites on the funktop IR`s that often?), whats to stop RI? (sidenote: current NOAA G-IV mission is a synoptic surveillance mission targetting the upper level trough & mid level ridge north of centre with dropsondes followed by a circular sweep of the core prior to landing in st croix)

MSN 5 (NOAA "gonzo") on its way so lets see what drops in sfc pressure it brings? Shears decreasing as the ull fills yet matthews slowly strengthened? definitely looking bigger by nearly filling the whole E carribean sea as well as developing the characteristic "comma". ominous with slight tracks shifting west, N Carolinas seriously concerned but sst`s support growth right up to the outer banks so Maryland Virginia & New Jersey also at heightened risk? Serious stuff indeed yet addictive to follow

Recon currently over/near centre, (14.05N 66.10W) 380mile SE of santo domingo DR, 995.7mb, retaining inner TS surface winds but fractionally under 70kn so far. ECM 150hpa looked impressive yesterday but evident shear with little outflow from East to SouthWest?

I think this ones keeping everyone guessing? so much in matthews favor yet looking slightly sheared with the core not cold (-14 core, -30 mean at 9:15am, 1001.6mb) but convection rate could explain that? core is currently exposed on W edge of conv: H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION BASED ON 0523Z AMSR2 THAT SHOWS LLCC ON W EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. LLCC LOCATED LESS THAN 0.5 DEGREE FROM DG FOR DT=3.0 USING SHEAR PATTERN. MET=3.5. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

well recon`s off out from the US virgin islands and headed east over Antigua so its data findings wont be long

Easy to see why folks are concentrating on this more than TS Gaston across the pond! oh, recon off this evening (BST time) to investigate

Maybe they wont rush `Cane status due to minimal land threat?

We are only the general public with an amateurs insight but i assume we would majoritively favour hurricane progression based on our own views & findings? & i agree that this does not seem to be a usual run-of-the-mill disturbance somehow? late yesterday a segment of sal towards the west & north seemed to be kept at bay & not ingested? plus 25-30kn of shear easterlies in roughly the same location only minimally delayed classification? i did see 2 surface/low level wind circulations trying to form on a straight axis & their was a long eddy of cloud convection stretching westwards underneath nearer 5'N lat? if only the eastern seaboard ridge strengthened then full scale "hurricane preparedness" could consume the enture caribbean & florida?

At long last we have TS "Gaston" 450-500 miles WSW of the CV islands. fishy future but major 'cane status possible & by its already impressive looks, mass, environment/conditions etc then a TS (Gaston) is highly likely by late tomoz? Next update 4am (bst)

So all we are missing is a well defined circulation ??? forgive me but everything including the kitchen sink is right in their on the latest images! hold the front page!? we finally have TD7! (New NW thread TD7)

90l (or td7 later today? given shear size taking time to come together): Euro & gfs both offer a cat 3/4 NW-wards near bermuda then sharp NE turn between azores & NE conus ridges, 99l shows a messy low around the bahamas & S fla, wild variations for a few more days but with all emphasis rightly on 90l & its fishy future then i'm sure 99l is not totally discarded & could still be a far bigger player when alls done? (99l Recon still poss & yet to be confirmed for tues?)

Gaston AND Hermine next sunday anyone? :O

Indeed, cant recall a disturbance & "unofficial" invest (90l) over east african land before? maybe its simply the shear mass & broadness of these latest waves thats got everyone on alert besides the relatively positive conditions for developments? recon for 99l out tuesday pm btw! *UPD* euro trickling out now but 12z gfs develops (future?) 90l to a cat3 953mb 'cane now perilously close to long island! :o but thankfully staying off-shore. I assume FI has zero credence with eastern seaboard folk?

So the euro develops it but fades east of the bahamas, But bombs the current aew or "pouch 23"? (NHC 40% thru 5 days) Rolling through senegal, guinea-bissau, guinea, SL etc now! Albeit another "fiona flounder" no westward than 60degs? crazy MDR volatility with a uber-busy atlantic at last. Lots to follow in the short term with high possibilities of an east coast major long overdue?

Etc etc All eyes on the next ECM models as they are still more or less out on their own with little to no development, I reckon their next outputs (00z) will start to show signs as 99L has REAL potential!