mezzacyclone

complete adv (the 14) in just under an hour 2200 BST PB

GFDL, HWRF GFS and now the Euro @ 120 coming together for landfall NC between cape lookout and cape hatteras south of Virgina beach, http://img831.images...al500mbslpw.gif 1938 again with a give or take 920mb but even closer for Washington, Philly & NYC as opposed to just long island? :o

true, my bad http://www.ssd.noaa..../catl/rgb-l.jpg clearer one here >

If anyones confused over Ice`s raw data here`s the run with the lowest air pressure reading > time=15:58:00Z Coordinates=20.600N 71.117 Aircraft Static Air Pressure=691.2 mb AircraftGeopotential Height=9,888 feet ExtrapolatedSurface Pressure=974.4 mb Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.)=From 63° at 11 knots (From the ENE at ~ 12.6 mph) Air Temp.=15.2°C(~ 59.4°F) Dew Point=9.8°C(~ 49.6°F) Peak (10 sec. Avg.)Flight Level Wind=15 knots(~ 17.2 mph) SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind=24 knots(~ 27.6 mph) SFMR rain rate=0 mm/hr(~ 0 in/hr) Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)Using Estimated Reduction Factor=17.6 knots (~ 20.2 mph) Peak Wind at Flight Level to Est. Surface Reduction Factor=160.0% eyes closed again on the 15:45 after we briefly saw signs of a clearing? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/ir4-l.jpg

mmm, the plot thickens it seems. The upper level trough is quite active and will be enhanced further with another dropping down from west of the great lakes to the east coast come fri/sat which Irene will come up against so east path favored again and possible landfall further north? dare i say it? if at all?

Recons over again headed west over eastern DR but the HDOB`s are short of data again? namely surface winds and pressure? Whatever influence the slight shear off the mountains of Haiti/DR had are almost if not already over and the CDO is mighty! the ridge is slightly weaker than original but I dont feel like buying into this as a fish somehow and eastern trajections might be just a little under cautious for landfall? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm3&zoom=&time=

Strengthening by using the shallower 30°C+ SST`s in and around the Bahamas? The dry wedge over DR is evident but done little to disrupt the overall form > https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/14391-5-45-23rd/ Classic "whispy" westward outflow now also > http://rammb.cira.co...ropical/194.JPG Next intermediate due 1pm BST,,,

that specials indicating a major `cane for tomorrow para? Much as I`ve tried i`m not seeing any dry air and the cores still solid/strengthening due to staying offshore. recons over again, 982mb already plotted,,,,long night?

those cold tops you mention definately their iceb > http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html CDO strengthening and shaping up more also within the last couple of hrs > http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

Not good, increase on earlier gfdl to 165mph :o http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs//GFDL/2011082212-irene09l//slp15.png

been mentioned that the NHC is being very conservative ATM?, restricting initial panic? anyone (iceb) see the GFDL as an outlier? anticipating GIV gulfstream data later to maybe help clarify matters,,,,

indeed. but GFDL going worser case scenario with more central Fl? http://imageshack.us/f/16/082206zgfdlswath.png/

Interesting snippet out of the last NHC adv/disc suggesting the outflow will join the westerly/north westerly upper lev mid-lat flow over the mid-atlantic states come friday+ and the upper lev mass confluence could persevere with the mid-low lev ridge yielding stronger than what Nogaps & ECM are forecasting? hence a more possible (east) coast hugger? All mightely interesting to quell a monday hangover http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/9546/082206zhwrfswath.png

this thing is HUGE already? :o http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5&map=latlon

Not finding any influence wotsoever to potentially weaken this? media picking up on huge disruption for FL. UKmet favoring more westerly trojection? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/00zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif

yup! excellent writeup from NHC "stewart" It`s all about the Upper level ridge & trough now but still huge speculation regarding path? coast hugger? >>>

Recon aircraft taxi-ing for launch,,,, (midday BST) can anyone please decode the HDBO, RECCO etc. data and paste here? I`m off out but can still view but real difficult to retrieve and decipher on a smartfone?

Currently lashing the Northern Leeward Islands and just about slap bang over the NE tip of Les Abymes. The dry air you mention IceB can be seen on some of the sat shots: hence no major development for the 12 hrs or so following the 07:45 timeshot.? With waters just under 29°C though it wont be long before Florida will be deeply concerned. BTW: Some of the projections have not updated the symbols from a TS or low cat 1 status yet, this has to eventually be between a 3,4 or possible 5 surely.

Incredible how the convection flared up in the space of a couple of hrs around 57W 16N/around 300 mile due east of the tip of Guadeloupe. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

unofficial sources but here she is, Irene no.9 due to the last vortex data message. NHC should update very soon with possibly a special advisory? Dont think they`ll hold out until the 8pm standard due to the potential this has? oh, almost forgot, the 2nd pass confirmed the established LLC!

I offer those were squall gusts P? The last pass has gone through a stable sector with no sign of wind shift? although their was some earlier further south, likewise with Don and Emily strangely enough? One point i`m sure you`ll agree on is the amount of convection! Be interesting decoding the next data as they head back into the northern sector that earlier had 40 knot surface wind speeds. Will dexy midnight runners be singing "come on Irene" before morning?