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mezzacyclone

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  1. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    CNN are continuously covering now, (observers saying saving grace is low tide landfall but range in NE gulf is insignificant anyway with <3ft of datum?)
  2. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    (160mph would officially be a 5)
  3. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    @ spot 28.450N 86.517W - panama city 120 mile due NNE
  4. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    agree, still ne E turn? 4 sooner or later before landfall? (GOM cookin pot in its optimum)
  5. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    hot (pink) towers prior to 7mb drop?,(lost a good old link to accurate fast strato temps) apols as above 951mb remark is NOT official therefore suspect? (extrapolated)
  6. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    958mb (26.03N 86.42W) prev dropsonde was E longtitude of last 951mb ( 26.333N 86.483W) centre so no NE turn as yet? obv alarming pressure RI drop on hunter SW sweep?
  7. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Michael

    I`d LOVE to know current cloud top temps?
  8. (Disturbance 2, 5 day amber) Could develop as TS late next week? dist 4 (rolling off w africa) is really low 5-10 lat but nothing much showing on mod development yet worthy of monitoring?
  9. That was a huge backdown from most of the models and quite alarming given them originally being shorterm 60-72hrs out so just goes to show accuracy is still far from certain right up until showtime, moreso when lots of factors are at play as per-present. (Interestingly the new GFS FV3 test model stuck with a casual 1000-1003mb low tracking east through southern england deepening all the way to west russia before filling, this model also did very well with hurricane florence when the vast majority started out predicting a fish yet the FV3 maintained outputs of a carolina landfall from extremely far out right up to imminent landfall?)
  10. mezzacyclone

    Hurricane Florence

    Unexpectedly intensified in recent hours, 85mph sustained. next advisory in just over 2hrs (1700 hrs AST time) "expected to reflect this"! can someone update title to 'cane status?
  11. Next upd highly likely to give official TS status (but already a TD?), surface level circulation, 35kn gusts, CDO more defined etc. strongest winds 35mph in SE sector, WV looks to be popping on latest runs, COC 70-90 south of Praia (CV isle) but light to mod easterly shear is fringing the southern area at 200-150hPa? been a while since anything this far east raised interest with favourable conditions ahead throughout?
  12. 90L is up, & florence sooner rather than later? but big question marks over a split ridge for a big fish/gap shooter or solid ridge keeping this on a lower lat? heightening interest in the caribbean sea areas also?
  13. Latest TWO just out @2pm (noaa local EDT time) upgrades to a "vigorous" low expected to form Thursday off EAfrica coast with 60% 5day formation prospects, Invest with closed LLC tomorrow? Dare it be said the entire basin from W Africa to the TX/Mexico Ecoast is alive and primed?
  14. I dont know what an "infographic" is? but i can offer a simple example that warm cores are tropically derived from high temp waters and thus grow off them while cold core extra-tropicals are maintained through a meeting of warm and cold air masses? Albeit derived from a sub tropical disturbance or not? If thats incorrect or not i dont know? Their must be something in the tutorilas here tho?
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