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  1. Hurricane Matthew

    940mb 18.283N 74.267W 104mph est avg surf winds, maybe fluctuations under estimating winds? *upd*: 130mph avg surf wind 10 miles of Haiti SW coast near earlier eye landfall.
  2. Hurricane Matthew

    avg surface winds 130mph 13.417N 73.267W region, 942mb, not suffering much at all despite any EWRC & an embedded centre? Dvorak lowered minimally. Slowing down to start the ominous turn NW-wards?
  3. Hurricane Matthew

    It amazed me how it almost doubled in strength (wind speed) for 12 hrs from 6pm yesterday evening to this morning!!!! thats Ultra-RI? rinse n repeat through the Bahamas?
  4. Hurricane Matthew

    Matthew continues to surprise then,,, still under 270degs tracking, deeper & deeper dvorak numbers, only the most recent slight digest of drier air into the NW sector that will be shrugged off, have any ewrc's taken place or has he just tightened up more & more? However i'm not 100% convinced of the plots? as if the short term paths have been incorrect then whats to place trust in the longer term? Matthew was already further West yesterday than the initial models and a lot of folk would very well wish a saving path right into mexico would continue akin to Emily?,,,But the developing trough over the GOM makes this more or less impossible hence northern turn. But in most likelihood of the turn today then: Jamaica's population is 2.8 million, half of which is urban, the loss of life is impossible to judge accurately but Matthew will be the breaking news Monday across the world, according to current trajectory where fatalities could well run into hundreds? Yet it cant be denied that landfall by a major 'cane in the Atlantic GOM etc basin was well overdue?
  5. Hurricane Matthew

    941mb, 150mph surface peaks, 140mph sustained surface winds, 13.8N 71.5W roughly 450 SE of kingston town, the pouch & wave that became 97L is now fully mature hurricane Matthew ready to devastate any land in his path. todays RI has been amazing!
  6. Hurricane Matthew

    well lets see what the herc msn 9 headed SW out of st croix can find? how low can he go? already a history maker, remarkable.
  7. Hurricane Matthew

    now thats one phenomenen i want to see before my times up! a 50k ft vertical wall cloud! :O
  8. Hurricane Matthew

    latest leg in the north quad found 130mph peak surface winds @ 13.700N 71.400W 19:45 21:21 edit: last dropsonde (17th 19:55) indicated surface level winds of 139mph, and when was strengthening forecast to abate/hold? are the last frames (19:45 utc) finally showing no southern element to westward trajectory?
  9. Hurricane Matthew

    latest 113mph (cat 2) peak surface gust 13.567N 71.433W, what factors officially signify a cat 3?
  10. Hurricane Matthew

    & last VDM confirming L. Closed Wall (= indicating eyewall completely surrounded by thunderstorms)
  11. Hurricane Matthew

    last couple of frames showing most intense ppn jigged spreading slightly SW perilously close to La Guajira dept of Colombias N coast?
  12. Hurricane Matthew

    NHC have not "erred" on the side of caution and underestimated intensity? Jamaica in the firing line for a devastating weekend? Matthews certainly proving not to be a usual run-of-the-mill cyclone? centre currently just under 500mile SE of kingston Town.
  13. Hurricane Matthew

    Yeah, intense cold tops now (dont see green tops yet alone whites on the funktop IR`s that often?), whats to stop RI? (sidenote: current NOAA G-IV mission is a synoptic surveillance mission targetting the upper level trough & mid level ridge north of centre with dropsondes followed by a circular sweep of the core prior to landing in st croix)
  14. Hurricane Matthew

    MSN 5 (NOAA "gonzo") on its way so lets see what drops in sfc pressure it brings? Shears decreasing as the ull fills yet matthews slowly strengthened? definitely looking bigger by nearly filling the whole E carribean sea as well as developing the characteristic "comma". ominous with slight tracks shifting west, N Carolinas seriously concerned but sst`s support growth right up to the outer banks so Maryland Virginia & New Jersey also at heightened risk? Serious stuff indeed yet addictive to follow
  15. Hurricane Matthew

    Recon currently over/near centre, (14.05N 66.10W) 380mile SE of santo domingo DR, 995.7mb, retaining inner TS surface winds but fractionally under 70kn so far. ECM 150hpa looked impressive yesterday but evident shear with little outflow from East to SouthWest?