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  1. as posted above: "MAD thread" lol Plain to see & the fights and anarchy akin to the 5 points in NYC of old will always spark up from time to time ? High velocity fuelled by the rarity of good model runs that lead to hope of what the vast majority (unlike the old banter that ian b, a pint of mild and mushy etc) wish to physically transpire and what their longing for? Is it not that a SSW (split or daughter vorts), warm 60degree to poleward PCH(polar cap geo heights) anomlies, negative WaFz (strat wind reversal), Neg AO and NAO, MMW (Major Mid-winter Warming, not addressed so far ive witnessed?) and phase favoured MJO etc etc are certainly NOT the minimum concrete tangibles to put the UK in the freezer? can it be labelled a similarity to a microclimate where the majority of locales (C Europe?) bear brunt of the teleconnects with the cold yet us in the UK require much more besides? The GFS "nemesis" does not really struggle with Strat and trop coupling? It handled the recent deep cold in C Europe really well? and as things turn out most on the swingometer have switched to their more zonal pattern anyway as things stand today? I used to enjoy the model thread but now see it as a free for all where little is clear and everyone is expected to be a boffin with scant regard for decency at times and where their used to be debate on pro , (SACRA lol) anti and neautral cold weather then these days its massively weighted in the pure cold fans majority? I have no real motive for this ditty? But the general air has changed massively over the years, but is that in itself due to NW popularity increase? anyways, may banter reign, though the models fall ? (sidenote: this view was posted prior to any 12z data output? but 168hr+ is a sinister drug ?)
  2. Lots to eyeball but I`m interested in ECM migrating the SH SEwards over to Caspian sea/Kazakstan (although it forms a weak ridge over Finland midweek?) or the GFS holding its lat yet moving Ewards to C Russia? Either way an inevitable mobile return next week is 60/40? WRussian/C&E European cooling is always a bonus this time a year? hello again everyone btw ?
  3. CNN are continuously covering now, (observers saying saving grace is low tide landfall but range in NE gulf is insignificant anyway with <3ft of datum?)
  4. agree, still ne E turn? 4 sooner or later before landfall? (GOM cookin pot in its optimum)
  5. hot (pink) towers prior to 7mb drop?,(lost a good old link to accurate fast strato temps) apols as above 951mb remark is NOT official therefore suspect? (extrapolated) ?
  6. 958mb (26.03N 86.42W) prev dropsonde was E longtitude of last 951mb ( 26.333N 86.483W) centre so no NE turn as yet? obv alarming pressure RI drop on hunter SW sweep?
  7. (Disturbance 2, 5 day amber) Could develop as TS late next week? dist 4 (rolling off w africa) is really low 5-10 lat but nothing much showing on mod development yet worthy of monitoring?
  8. That was a huge backdown from most of the models and quite alarming given them originally being shorterm 60-72hrs out so just goes to show accuracy is still far from certain right up until showtime, moreso when lots of factors are at play as per-present. (Interestingly the new GFS FV3 test model stuck with a casual 1000-1003mb low tracking east through southern england deepening all the way to west russia before filling, this model also did very well with hurricane florence when the vast majority started out predicting a fish yet the FV3 maintained outputs of a carolina landfall from extremely far out right up to imminent landfall?)
  9. Unexpectedly intensified in recent hours, 85mph sustained. next advisory in just over 2hrs (1700 hrs AST time) "expected to reflect this"! can someone update title to 'cane status?
  10. Next upd highly likely to give official TS status (but already a TD?), surface level circulation, 35kn gusts, CDO more defined etc. strongest winds 35mph in SE sector, WV looks to be popping on latest runs, COC 70-90 south of Praia (CV isle) but light to mod easterly shear is fringing the southern area at 200-150hPa? been a while since anything this far east raised interest with favourable conditions ahead throughout?
  11. 90L is up, & florence sooner rather than later? but big question marks over a split ridge for a big fish/gap shooter or solid ridge keeping this on a lower lat? heightening interest in the caribbean sea areas also?
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