JT Texas

8771510 is showing only 8 ft. of water against the seawall. winds at 27 knots, gusts to 52. It will get worse, but not necessarily over the seawall. In fact, the only area that might not flood is the area immediately behind the seawall, where the grade raising took place. However, a surge at 6 plus feet is moving up the Houston ship channel, showing at the Battleship Texas mooring.

Actually, they're afraid it will float off. Seriously.

Here it is: WTNT44 KNHC 122031 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON ISLAND.

Looks like one of the rigs that was registering the highest winds (91.3 knots from the SE) has flatlined and is repeating the same info for the past couple of hours - Station 42361.

Here's the projected totals from local news once the storm passes (from abc13.com): Projected Storm Surge Impact *572,000 people within storm surge area *6 drinking water plants impacted by storm surge *34 wastewater treatment facilities impacted by storm surge *54 Police Stations, 89 Fire Stations, and 32 Ambulance services impacted by storm surge *10 Hospitals with more than 10 beds impacted by storm surge *47 Nursing Homes impacted by storm surge *7 wire centers impacted by storm surge *140 electric power substations impacted by storm surge *48 non-nuclear generating units impacted by surge *10 industrial plants including oil refineries and chemical plants are co-located with 41 generators impacted by storm surge Projected Electric Power Outage Impact *5.2 million customers may lose power in Texas *99 drinking water plants in electric power outage area (only 14 plants serve more than 50,000) *More than 1,500 wastewater treatment facilities are located in electric power outage area *799 Police Stations, 1,973 Fire Stations, and 641 Ambulance Services within electric power outage area *256 Hospitals with more than 50 beds within electric power outage area. *1,263 Nursing Homes within electric power outage area Projected Petroleum and Natural Gas Sector Impacts * 95% of Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production suspended *1.25 million bbl/day of oil production, 6% of U.S. petroleum demand *6.9 Bcf/day of natural gas production, 11% of U.S. daily average natural gas demand Posted by KTRK on September 12, 2008

Showing 9.24 ft. of water (above mean low water level) in front of seawall at 2:18 CDT, 9/12/2008. Low tide shows about 7-8 PM, high time 3-4 AM. Winds 25 knots, gusts 39.

Pier sensor failed, now showing backup sensor. Water has rised to 9.33 ft. above MLLW. Winds @ 20 Knots, Gusts to 40. (Readings in front of the Galveston seawall 13:42 CDT 9/12/2008). Galveston 8771510

Seawall is about 17 ft. tall, 16 ft. thick at base, curved front, with base about 2 - 3 ft. above normal high tide, curved reinforced concrete, concrete sidewalks, curbs, street. Roadway on top slopes back toward the top of the seawall, so another foot or so increase in elevation, and grade continues sloping back toward the top of the seawall another 100 feet or so, depending on what year the section was built. http://www.gthcenter.org/exhibits/seawall/index.html It's not it's first hurricane.

The rising water prior to the arrival of the hurricane force winds was a major cause of deaths in the 1900 storm - now (9/12/2008 10:30 CDT) at the seawall GPST2 showing only winds NNE at 15 knts (gusts to 23), but with 8 feet of extra water. Water would soon be too high to move on most of the island.

Here is a mean sea level measure, about fifty or sixty meters in front of the seawall. http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.s...sure+Pier%2C+TX