If Wishes made Weather

That is good and clear. Interestingly, the bit in northern Germany that is showing the highest snowfall amount is the Harz mountains, the highest of which (called the Broken) is 1142m above sea level. Just a little less than Ben Nevis. It is famous for just getting loads of snow (or rain depending on time of year), with the maximum measured snow depth of 3.80m. If you look at a topographic map the Harz are the only really high ground between the Atlantic and the Urals.

... and by virtue of that is (I think disproportionally owing to its weighting) dragging the mean up anyway.

A question for someone who has a good technical understanding of the models. I understand that the op run is produced at higher resolution than the control. So its data output should have a higher predictive value. In calculating the mean value charts then is the op run ‘discounted’ so that every member of the set is treated equally (giving an even mean), or if not, the mean must surely always have a bias to the op run sort of built into it. Many thanks anyone

There is a difference - the angle of the higher pressure zone to the north between Norway and Greenland. On the one chart, the high pressure is elongated sort of towards Iceland. This allows a linking toward the large mid Atlantic high - and I believe better blocking from systems coming in from the west.

Sorry - heading west!

This is fun - the low pressure developing in the stream over southern Poland and heading East

It’s a bit difficult getting excited about the charts and potential snow depths that are being indicated at the moment on the charts (if they ever happen). Being a kid who was in secondary school in the ate 1980s in the ‘north’, it was about waist deep drifts - not the 5-10 cm levels being progged for next weekish.

Surely to have a warning then the expected weather needs to be a sort of minimum percentage away from the average. Anslight covering of snow and a -3c frost (as forecast for Stortford) is within the parameters of absolutely normal weather in winter. Why a warning at all. In July are we to be warned for a dry day at 17c?

Hello- on the models. Perhaps it might’ve just help to think of them like this. What I am going to write is a massive simplification but here goes: - the models are not conscious and do not work out right or wrong answers. They are just a set of equations run by computers that start with numbers and generate outputs that are other numbers. These output numbers are then turned into charts that we humans can read. - the input data is a set of measurements of temperatures, pressures, humidity, wind speeds and direction (and maybe some other things as well). - these input data h

I have noticed this sort of cyclical nature in the outputs. Maybe something to do with simple diurnal variation in the input data. Probably suggestive of taking a sort of average view of outputs over a period of a couple of days rather than suggesting that any one chart is predictive of itself.

Does anyone know if the models either add new data or use different calculations to produce the different frames in any particular run, or are the different frames simply a reiteration of the same calculations based upon the outputs that produced the previous frames? I suspect a blend of both, but would like to know as it would explain one or two things about how much predictive value any particular chart can have. Many thanks

Absolutely - and the mild air is squeezed out of the mid-Atlantic

Looks to be a lot of tremor in the 2-4 Hz band now.

Hell of a depth to it Jon - the Moine thrust runs just there.

Not sure if this is real, or a ghost in the machine, but somewhere between the islands of Eigg and Coll, according to the EMSC, a mag 5.5 about an hour and a half ago: M 5.5RegionSCOTLAND, UNITED KINGDOMDate time2014-10-09 19:15:21.2 UTCLocation56.70 N ; 6.39 WDepth120 kmDistances308 km N of Douglas, Isle of Man / pop: 26,218 / local time: 20:15:21.2 2014-10-09 214 km NW of Edinburgh, United Kingdom / pop: 435,791 / local time: 20:15:21.2 2014-10-09 95 km NW of Lochgilphead, United Kingdom / pop: 2,272 / local time: 20:15:21.2 2014-10-09 65 km NW of Oban, United Kingdom / pop: 8,081 / l