[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

Dry and I think mostly cloudy, min temperature=2.1 C now up to 3.4 C

[Model discussion highlights]

Friday 19 January

The return to milder air was well signed by NOAA from last Thur/Fri.

NOAA 6-10 shows strong SW’ly into UK with some ridging over Scandinavia whilst the +ve height is shown off ne coast of Spain around 240DM. In the far west it shows a ridge-trough set up (will this affect the UK area with time?) 180 DM in the ridge, east of the trough a stron WNW flow to beneath the main trough in its usual area and thence into the UK etc

The 8-14 keeps the ridge off W Alaska but ‘loses’ the trough with only the main trough, simllar to the 6-10 into the ridge east of the UK, so a very similar pattern in the UK area.

Turning to ECMWF, which never went for as much ridging nor quite as low 850’s as other models suggested and it maintains a most south of west strongish flow through its 5 days (25-29 Jan) with, at the surface, a ridge being more dominant than any low feature. This ridge is moved from Spain to central Europe in the same period. *50 MB temperatures ebb and flo a little at first but overall a rise is show and by the 29 th the whole UK is show > than zero with England and  Wales above 5 C

UK Met for 23-25 Jan has a fairly stron broad westerly with minor ridges and troughs running through. This shows on the surface as two deep lows that track in a general easterly direction just north of Scotland.

Overall the flow is a mix of Polar returning maritime air with brief intrusions of Tropical Maritime for more southern areas. Probably some snow on the cold side of passing lows for the Scottish mountains with temperatures fluctuating around normal for most areas.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/?do=findComment&comment=5018881

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Friday 19 January

The return to milder air was well signed by NOAA from last Thur/Fri.

NOAA 6-10 shows strong SW’ly into UK with some ridging over Scandinavia whilst the +ve height is shown off ne coast of Spain around 240DM. In the far west it shows a ridge-trough set up (will this affect the UK area with time?) 180 DM in the ridge, east of the trough a stron WNW flow to beneath the main trough in its usual area and thence into the UK etc

The 8-14 keeps the ridge off W Alaska but ‘loses’ the trough with only the main trough, simllar to the 6-10 into the ridge east of the UK, so a very similar pattern in the UK area.

Turning to ECMWF, which never went for as much ridging nor quite as low 850’s as other models suggested and it maintains a most south of west strongish flow through its 5 days (25-29 Jan) with, at the surface, a ridge being more dominant than any low feature. This ridge is moved from Spain to central Europe in the same period. *50 MB temperatures ebb and flo a little at first but overall a rise is show and by the 29 th the whole UK is show > than zero with England and  Wales above 5 C

UK Met for 23-25 Jan has a fairly stron broad westerly with minor ridges and troughs running through. This shows on the surface as two deep lows that track in a general easterly direction just north of Scotland.

Overall the flow is a mix of Polar returning maritime air with brief intrusions of Tropical Maritime for more southern areas. Probably some snow on the cold side of passing lows for the Scottish mountains with temperatures fluctuating around normal for most areas.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

Clear sky, dry and a low since midnight of -2.9 C so 5 air frosts on the trot

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

5 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:

My doggo will go out in any weather he loves it, comes to watch thunderstorms with me too

So did mine,at the time I had never seen a dog do that

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I had snow today, out of a blue sky at least 2 dozen flakes!

That after my coldest night since 11 Feb 2012

Quite overcome with it all!

 

Loved the snow photos, especially the dog playing in the snow; I wonder why almost all dogs seem to enjoy snow

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

Very unusual occurrence waiting for a bus around 10 am this morning. Complete blue sky, not a cloud in sight, and a couple of dozen snowflakes floating down. Made me think back to the first couple years in the Met Office at RAF Worksop, that happened, rain not snow, in brisk westerlies as shower clouds cleared but the ppn appeared to fall from a blue sky

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

At dawn, clear sky other than shallow cu on eastern horizon, white frost with a low of -6.3 C, the lowest for at least 3 years, not yet had chance to check how far back.

Found it=Feb 11 th 2012 with -8.4 C

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

Dry with patchy Ci and Contrails but 7/8 blue, coldest night this winter and back to 15 March 2023; -3.1 C

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

19 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

Yes you’re right nothing really showed this, as always happens in cold spells as some of the regulars have been saying snow suprises can and do crop up out of the blue I’m in the north of Scotland at the moment and it’s like ice station Zebra here (always was of course likely in an artic northerly) and I for one will make the most of it before I head home but I’m sure more suprises will crop up else where indeed a front looks like sinking south tonight too. Enjoy if you get snow where ever you are. 

Not sure why anyone is saying it was not predicted, UK Met Fax has shown it for several days, forecasts also suggested it tracking east rather than its current south of east. The area predicted for snow has, as it often does , varied between central Scotland and north Midlands!

 

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

Dry and cloudy, frosty, low after midnight=-1.7 C but -2.2 C before

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

A cloudless and pretty cold day, Max 2.7 with a Td of -06C and breeze of 10+ mph=feels like -6/-7 C

[Model discussion highlights]

Monday 15 Jan

From last Thursday

The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period.

Little to add, the possible snow event for this area looks to have ‘gone’. That for the far south seems less likely. The less cold air on all 3 charts I use looks set to arrive by Saturday. At the moment not looking all that mild but no sign of any cold for a couple of weeks from Saturday for the UK.

Have to say not sure what to make of the pattern in the very far west of the NOAA charts

!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

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UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

  

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5012819

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Monday 15 Jan

From last Thursday

The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period.

Little to add, the possible snow event for this area looks to have ‘gone’. That for the far south seems less likely. The less cold air on all 3 charts I use looks set to arrive by Saturday. At the moment not looking all that mild but no sign of any cold for a couple of weeks from Saturday for the UK.

Have to say not sure what to make of the pattern in the very far west of the NOAA charts

!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

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UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

  

[Daily weather observations - January 15th to January 21st]

A clear cold blue sky morning with an air frost giving a low of -1.3 C; this is the lowest since 6/12/23

 

[Daily weather observations - January 8th to January 14th]

Dry and fairly cloudy with a temperature currently of 2.3 C; it dropped to 0.1 C with ground frost 0300-0400

 

[Model discussion highlights]

Not got time to post the full set of charts I use but they are along similar lines to yesterday. So deepish cold to start next week before the upper flow on NOAA and ECMWF turns more westerly cutting off the deep cold. Also borne out by UK met at 144h. Just where snow will fall and settle still seems uncertain but the low shown on Met Fx charts is the system that is the cause so watch how UK Met deal with it over the next 3-4 days and their forecasts/warnings for where snow is most likely. Certainly looks to become less cold/milder into next weekend I feel.

ps obviously coastal areas from Monday into perhaps Wednesday are likely to see coastal snow showers, with a small risk of these being more extensive on any troughs that form, little advance warning of these, say 6-12 hours at most.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5010067

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Not got time to post the full set of charts I use but they are along similar lines to yesterday. So deepish cold to start next week before the upper flow on NOAA and ECMWF turns more westerly cutting off the deep cold. Also borne out by UK met at 144h. Just where snow will fall and settle still seems uncertain but the low shown on Met Fx charts is the system that is the cause so watch how UK Met deal with it over the next 3-4 days and their forecasts/warnings for where snow is most likely. Certainly looks to become less cold/milder into next weekend I feel.

ps obviously coastal areas from Monday into perhaps Wednesday are likely to see coastal snow showers, with a small risk of these being more extensive on any troughs that form, little advance warning of these, say 6-12 hours at most.

[Daily weather observations - January 8th to January 14th]

Almost totally clear sky for a change, white ground frost with a low of 0.6 C

[Daily weather observations - January 8th to January 14th]

Cloudy with  0.2 mm since midnight, current low is 4.6 C; seeing the sun will be a plus whenever that happens!

[Model discussion highlights]

Thursday same charts

The NOAA chart now shows all contours into UK are from a westerly point but also still from a cold source, (NW Canada/Alaska) and about 528 DM maybe just above.The upper trough has moved west, from between Iceland and nw Scotland to be nearer Iceland. There is little indication of any troughing into Europe for the third chart in succession.

ECMWF  just looking at the -5 C 850 MB line, (period 17-21 Jan) starts S Wales to the Thames and ends up over the northern tip of Scotland, with a general WNW 500 MB flow from the initial N’ly

Finally the T+144 to 168h Met O upper air and surface charts, (15-17 Jan)  show  the upper ttrough  extending to some extent into southern Europe but not as sharp as the issue I showed on Tuesday a N’ly on the first day changing to a deepish surface feature with a SW;ly flow for all but the far north of Scotland by the end (17 th=Wednesday)

So what can we suggest for the surface weather in the 6-10 day and then the 8-14 period some of these charts cover? Deepish cold to start by the end of this weekend over pretty much all of the UK. Dry for most but mini troughs are quite possible in the N’ly (they do often feature in these flows), a few snow showers around coasts early next week, enhanced over any area affected by a trough. There is a probability of the low shown on the Met O T+144 of spreading some snow into areas, say Midlands south possibly turning to rain in the SW. How far north this gets is difficult to suggest and best to wait to see how the synoptic models deal with it, by Sunday this should be getting clearer! The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period.

Beyond that, not for these charts

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5006868

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Thursday same charts

The NOAA chart now shows all contours into UK are from a westerly point but also still from a cold source, (NW Canada/Alaska) and about 528 DM maybe just above.The upper trough has moved west, from between Iceland and nw Scotland to be nearer Iceland. There is little indication of any troughing into Europe for the third chart in succession.

ECMWF  just looking at the -5 C 850 MB line, (period 17-21 Jan) starts S Wales to the Thames and ends up over the northern tip of Scotland, with a general WNW 500 MB flow from the initial N’ly

Finally the T+144 to 168h Met O upper air and surface charts, (15-17 Jan)  show  the upper ttrough  extending to some extent into southern Europe but not as sharp as the issue I showed on Tuesday a N’ly on the first day changing to a deepish surface feature with a SW;ly flow for all but the far north of Scotland by the end (17 th=Wednesday)

So what can we suggest for the surface weather in the 6-10 day and then the 8-14 period some of these charts cover? Deepish cold to start by the end of this weekend over pretty much all of the UK. Dry for most but mini troughs are quite possible in the N’ly (they do often feature in these flows), a few snow showers around coasts early next week, enhanced over any area affected by a trough. There is a probability of the low shown on the Met O T+144 of spreading some snow into areas, say Midlands south possibly turning to rain in the SW. How far north this gets is difficult to suggest and best to wait to see how the synoptic models deal with it, by Sunday this should be getting clearer! The fact that NOAA charts show a westerly by the end of the 6-10 day period coupled with this being shown on the 8-14 (this is the third consecutive such chart,) does suggest to me a more unsettled and rather cold westerly with lows eventually succeeding in moving less cold air, perhaps only temporarily in the 10-14 day period.

Beyond that, not for these charts

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[Model discussion highlights]

4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

00z has less data, mostly from less balloon information. I wonder if balloon data is more important when it comes to gathering figures from less populated land areas, such as Greenland and the Arctic? Statistically it's not less reliable, but then again our weather comes from the south west seas most of the time.

Max balloon data is 00Z and 12Z

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5005196

[Model discussion highlights]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Must be mistaken then. Somebody posted the specs the other day. and I thought it was the 00z that was about a gig down on the total data.

Found this about weather balloons; certainly in my time world-wide ascents main times were 00 and 12Z for all data including balloons.

 Currently, the global radiosonde network includes about 900 upper-air stations, and about two-thirds make observations twice daily (at 0000 and 1200 UTC). The network is predominantly land-based and favours the Northern Hemisphere.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5005208

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Must be mistaken then. Somebody posted the specs the other day. and I thought it was the 00z that was about a gig down on the total data.

Found this about weather balloons; certainly in my time world-wide ascents main times were 00 and 12Z for all data including balloons.

 Currently, the global radiosonde network includes about 900 upper-air stations, and about two-thirds make observations twice daily (at 0000 and 1200 UTC). The network is predominantly land-based and favours the Northern Hemisphere.