johnholmes

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point. The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Late to send this today Dry,variable fairly large amounts of cloud with a red/pink sunrise, the low was 4.6 C. No sign of the strong gusty winds yet, even the large trees are hardly moving here

Dry, clear, min shows as 3.6 C but roofs white?

Metwatch Re your comment about heights over Newfoundland. That area is often close to or withing the main major trough so all the heights show is that the trough is not centred over that area. It is shown east of Newfoundland on the 6-10 and west on the 8-14.

Dry with lovely red-orange sunrise through Ci cloud; a white ground frost with a low of 0.2 C, just missing an air frost

Cloudy, had 0.2 mm at 0400 on Davis, mild with the current low on 6.2 C

Raining here and a low of 7.8 C, rainfall since midnight=0.8 mm

Sunday starts with a lot of cloud, dry and on the cold side with a low of 2.8 C

Dry with variable cloud, even see the start of sunrise at 0700. actual here is 0759, a low of 3.1 C less mild than for about a week

Upper air analysis 26 January 2024 One week on so another update; not done earlier as nothing was showing on any of the 3 charts to suggest anything even slightly different from our weather this past week. NOAA 6-10 has slowly over the past week changed troughs/ridges, or at least, some aspects in the far west. In the UK area/Europe then the European ridging, more especially, the position of the +ve heights has shifted from way east to a more westerly point ( on the 6-10 it is now centred 50N 20W at 210 DM. This movement is not dissimilar to how it developed prior to the last cold spell! I’m not saying this will happen again simply stating facts. The 8-14 edges it a shade further west but, as is almost always the case, with a lower +ve height value. ECMWF shows a general flow just north of west on its output (31/1-4/2) with a flattish upper ridge over central/eastern Europe being replaced by a flattish trough in much the same place. Its 850 temperature values eventually by day 5 the 0C lying from N Wales to the Thames estuary. UK Met on their 3 day charts from T+144 30/1-1/2 a mainly westerly flow with an upper ridge finally settling just west of Portugal So all 3 show a similar upper air pattern developing over the relevant periods of their forecast period. As is often quoted on the model (forecast) thread, more charts are needed to see what is likely to transpire. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5024623

Much the same in Wengen, here by the village railway station; fine at altitude (by the start gate for the Lauberhorn DHO Live Cameras and Weather - Downhill Only Ski Club DOWNHILLONLY.COM From Wengen and the surrounding area. Time to think about Insurance ? MPI brokers provide members with a discount, click on the link above to obtain a further online discount. […]

@Terminal Moraine About the same time here for similar according to the Davis

Upper air analysis 26 January 2024 One week on so another update; not done earlier as nothing was showing on any of the 3 charts to suggest anything even slightly different from our weather this past week. NOAA 6-10 has slowly over the past week changed troughs/ridges, or at least, some aspects in the far west. In the UK area/Europe then the European ridging, more especially, the position of the +ve heights has shifted from way east to a more westerly point ( on the 6-10 it is now centred 50N 20W at 210 DM. This movement is not dissimilar to how it developed prior to the last cold spell! I’m not saying this will happen again simply stating facts. The 8-14 edges it a shade further west but, as is almost always the case, with a lower +ve height value. ECMWF shows a general flow just north of west on its output (31/1-4/2) with a flattish upper ridge over central/eastern Europe being replaced by a flattish trough in much the same place. Its 850 temperature values eventually by day 5 the 0C lying from N Wales to the Thames estuary. UK Met on their 3 day charts from T+144 30/1-1/2 a mainly westerly flow with an upper ridge finally settling just west of Portugal So all 3 show a similar upper air pattern developing over the relevant periods of their forecast period. As is often quoted on the model (forecast) thread, more charts are needed to see what is likely to transpire. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

Rain overnight, some cloud gaps but still bursts of rain, total 2.6 mm since midnight, also breezy, gust to 27 mph o/night, current low shows 5.6 C

A cloudy dry and rather cold start; a low of 3.5 C, Ocnl slight rain since

Dry with variable cloud, lowest is 10.8 C, hoping to change battery today but data seems ok again, gust to 29 overnight and 35 late yesterday

A gust to 37 mph here, close on Sunday and the temperature is 14.7 C

Would you be kind enough to put your nearest town in your posts, that helps us all understand the local weather in your area thanks

I am pretty sure that meteorologists and climatologists will probably already be preparing learned texts explaining why certain meteorological parameters are now different to what we remember, in my case, 60+ years ago. Just whether they will be proved correct is something that will be evident in a decade or several decades time. I'll watch with interest from my 'perch' up above!

Cloudy and dry at dawn but ocnl light rain now, the low was 4.9 C. No reports now until I get round to changing the battery in the gear outside.

Very well said C, as an ex senior forecaster for the often maligned Met Office much of what you discuss was barely seen in my days, an occasional very complex item in the more learned scientific magazines certainly nothing in practical meteorology. The science of meteorology has come a long way since then but some of you on here, yourself included, absolutely amaze me with your depth of knowledge. Keep going at it you will never, in my view, get a total answer but you will become more accurate as will the professionals. Thanks for all the hard work you and others on here do, way above me much of the time but well done.

Dry with variable cloud and breezy, worst of the wind was last evening gusts to 45 mph, now down to 27 mph gusts. No rain since the early hours with 0.6 mm since midnight; current low is 8.4 C

Gusted to 45 mph here which is pretty unusual

Sunday starts dry with variable cloud, bit breezy already; a low of 3.9 C but up to 6.8 C now

Dry and I think mostly cloudy, min temperature=2.1 C now up to 3.4 C