johnholmes

I expect the anomaly charts will begin to reflect this pattern and we will get a better idea how far West any block will be In fact it was 2 days ago they began to move towards this pattern

Another eight days or so of HP over the UK which has been very consistent for a while so enjoy! As to 'enjoying' the current high it does depend where you live,since Monday the sun has been a rare visitor to the skies in this area. I would agree that the indicators do point to a more westerly upper flow starting from around day 5 from now. It may well be a rather slow process as this type spreads down from the NW.

dry and cloudy with a low of 9.6C just after midnight

as always V a first class and objective post from you-thank you

you could of course have zero hours either falling or lying, how would that feel?

sad - the end of an era!

thanks for that Fergie, always good to get fact rather than fiction

A place I have always wanted to visit but never made it, and I so envy you living out there, and being able to converse, languages was never my strong point but hey ho too late now.

almost certainly she will have been aware of Met O input to the BBC, via one of the forecasters, I would guess?

Just mulling over comments in the thread, and good to see constructive comments from folk with differing views. I never or very rarely post regarding the anomaly charts without having looked at the synoptic models and over the winter the MJO, also at times reading the technical bits from NOAA about how the models seem to be predicting the long wave pattern for the northern hemisphere. Without doing this then one is liable to get a rather blinkered view of the output. This maybe why, in winter with so much hope going on to snow and frost conditions, we see posts that are based solely on one model and one run then hypothesising on what might happen if one thing or another happens. Next thing we know the model thread descends into minor chaos for a short time, not unlike what the synoptic models are apt to do now and then over a 24 or 48 hour period before settling back down. Nothing wrong with this approach but do be aware it is less likely to be a balanced view than a more widespread, careful assessment, at all model outputs. Let’s just hope and all try this winter period to keep our posts respectful to one another and allow anyone posting charts to their viewpoint. End of jh plea! back to the outlook, say 5 days onwards. Not much change in the overall upper pattern close by the UK at first but slowly the more changeable/unsettled idea of the Atlantic beginning to affect more parts of the country looks like happening. The anomaly charts and the MJO (GFS) suggest this into early November, or do so according to my interpretatopn of their outputs, see links below http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php I would agree with phil above re no major Atlantic wind up on offer so far.

not snowing in the village yet but forecast to do so, first reasonable cover on the ski runs down to about 5500ft, but it will thaw probably once the current cold pool warms out. Fingers crossed for a good snow season though. Last season just made it prior to the Lauberhorn. http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/?langId=2

Dry, mostly cloudy, a low of 6.9C

what a wimp! I would think it preferrable, to me at any rate, to being chucked up and down 30-40 feet in mid Atlantic!

I've posted it before but do so again as it might be of interest to new folk, my comments on the 62-63 winter working just south of Nottingham. admin/mods please delete if it is too long. Data for RCAF Langar for the 1962-1963 winters, with a comparison with 1947 (Temperatures are all in deg C) Langar is about 10 miles ese of Nottingham in a slight ‘bowl’ with minor hills all around it. The diary as such starts on December 26th 1962 and finishes at the end of February 1963. General notes The ground was snow covered continuously (Met Office definition for =/>half cover) for 44 days from 26.12.62 until 8.2.63 (At my parent’s house near Chesterfield, Derbyshire that was extended until 27th February, A total of 63 days). The ground at Langar was continuously frozen from 22nd December 1962 until 4th March 1963, a total of 63 days. There was an air frost on every night, apart from 4, between 22nd December 1962 and 4th March 1963. (The only nights without frost were; 5.6.28 and 29th January) There were 32 consecutive nights with frost from 1st February 1963 to 4th March 1963. And there was a continuous frost(air temperature constantly below 0C) from 1500Z on 18th January 1963 until 0900Z on 26th January 1963(186 hours); put another way, almost a WHOLE week!! There was 3.73 inches of rain (and melted snow) from 1 October 1962 to 28 February 1963 This = 38% of the average. Monthly figures for the start of the cold spell on 22nd December 1962 Date min max mean 22 -4.4 2.2 -1.1 23 -6.1 0.6 -2.8 24 -9.3 0.0 -4.7 25 -11.8 -3.9 -7.9 26 -11.1 2.2 -4.5 27 -1.4 1.1 -0.2 28 -7.7 -2.2 -5.0 29 -5.1 -1.7 -3.4 30 -1.7 0.0 -0.9 31 -0.6 0.6 0.0 Mean temp for 10 days = -3.0C Values for January 1963 Date min max mean 1 -0.1 0.7 0.3 2 -1.3 -0.6 -1.0 3 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 4 -0.1 1.0 0.5 5 0.6 1.1 0.9 6 1.1 1.8 1.5 7 -3.5 1.3 -1.1 8 -5.7 0.7 -2.5 9 -8.0 1.3 -3.4 10 -6.6 1.5 -2.6 11 -10.4 -5.0 -7.7 12 -5.4 -3.3 -4.4 13 -8.3 0.0 -4.2 14 -1.4 2.8 0.7 15 -7.7 2.3 -2.7 16 -2.7 0.0 -1.4 17 -9.2 -2.1 -5.7 18 -13.8 0.9 -6.5 19 -5.9 -0.3 -3.1 20 -3.3 -0.8 -2.1 21 -4.1 -1.4 -2.8 22 -13.6 -3.4 -8.5 23 -15.4 -3.3 -9.4 24 -12.2 -5.6 -8.9 25 -8.6 -0.6 -4.6 26 -6.2 5.3 -0.5 27 -3.9 2.3 -0.8 28 0.5 2.4 1.5 29 1.4 2.9 2.2 30 0.1 1.3 0.7 31 -1.7 2.5 0.4 Mean temp for month = -2.4C Values for February Date min max mean 1 -3.5 -0.7 -2.1 2 -9.8 -3.5 -6.7 3 -6.7 -4.1 -5.4 4 -10.2 1.6 -4.3 5 -8.4 0.2 -4.1 6 -3.7 -0.7 -2.2 7 -1.6 1.6 0.0 8 0.0 2.9 1.5 9 -1.7 2.9 0.6 10 -1.4 1.7 0.2 11 -1.8 0.6 -0.6 12 -0.1 2.1 1.0 13 -0.7 4.1 1.0 14 -2.6 1.7 -0.5 15 -0.1 1.2 0.6 16 -1.9 0.4 -0.8 17 -1.7 1.7 0.0 18 -1.7 2.2 0.3 19 -1.5 0.3 0.6 20 -4.8 2.6 -1.1 21 -3.9 4.1 0.1 22 -2.1 2.8 0.4 23 -2.8 1.9 -0.5 24 -6.7 0.6 -3.1 25 -9.8 2.2 -3.8 26 -5.2 4.8 -0.2 27 -4.6 2.8 -0.9 28 -3.3 5.4 1.1 Mean temp for month = -1.1C Mean temp for January and February = -1.7C The average minimum for the whole 69 days=-4.9C Comparison of temperatures at Langar between 1947 and 1963 1947 January avge min=-1.0 avge max=3.5 mean=1.3 1963 January avge min=-5.0 avge max=0.2 mean=-2.4 1947 February avge min=-4.2 avge max=1.5 mean=-2.3 1963 February avge min=-3.7 avge max=1.8 mean=-0.9 So for the two months being compared 1947 showed a mean temp of -0.5 and 1963 gave -1.7C I cannot get data for frosts and snow for 1947 but for 1963 these were; days with snow falling= 20 in Jan and 19 in Feb; lying snow=31 in Jan and 19 in Feb. Air frosts in January were 26 and 27 in February. To add some comments on the above data. I lived in a centrally heated block with just a short walk to the dining and recreation area. Life was lived in short sleeves mostly with the bedroom window open a notch as the heating was so hot. Underground pipes went from the boiler house to all the buildings and snow/ice free areas showed their path. Once off the station then life showed up very differently, buses ran but occasionally stopped due to the intense cold, roads were usually passable in the Langar area. However, on my journeys home this was not the case. Although snowfall was not as high in terms of depth as 1947, some roads were impassable at times during blizzards when the winds picked up. Snow that fell in late December was still being blown around in February along with new falls. Data from Finningley shows it snowed on 40 out of 66 possible days from 26 December to 29 February. Thus the Chesterfield area may well have had a slightly higher figure. I do remember feeling very cold in bed at my parents with just one main fire in the house. Frost persisted throughout the day on windows away from the kitchen. When the snow started to thaw I did manage to drive my father’s car on to the nearest high ground, about 1,000ft up and some 6-7 miles from our house. The main road was a ‘tunnel’ with snow piled over 12-15 feet on each side of the road. So another tale of a severe winter which I have experienced. Just the 1947 one to try and dig some relevant data out. Sadly a diary I know my father kept has been lost. to end= NINETEEN ICE DAYS that winter at Langar, not sure how many at RAF Finningley, I'll have a look. only (!) 12

The major difference between any other warming is the number of folks on the earth, not too many 400,000 years ago, now several billion, all need feeding, all needing somewhere to live and not be flooded by possible rising sea levels etc etc. Rare for me to venture into this type of discussion as I find stereotyped mind sets are often to the fore!

It is interesting amongst all the discussion about model accuracy to look regularly at how statistically this is showing up for the northern hemisphere at 500mb. I refer to the usually daily input from Gibby, see below for this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECMshow at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts toUKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.1 pts over GFS's 50.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.0 pts to 29.9 pts. If we look at this data then none of the models are better than about 50:50 after day 5 or so and by day 10 not much more than 1 i 3 are correct. Something to bear in mind when posting about any of the big 3, well 2 as UK Met does not go public beyond their 120h Fax although there is a public extension out to 144h. This leaves us with the 500mb anomaly charts as our best guide to what may happen. Everyone knows the 3 I use but there are others which are used on here. As with the synoptic models ignore single outputs and watch for continuity from day to day and between models. Even then out at day 10 and beyond great care is needed but it does provide the best guide in a 2 week slot as to what airmass is most likely to affect the UK. Beyond 2 weeks then, in the winter, some reasonable guidance is available from the MJO signal provided it has a reasonable orbit, close to the origin and it provides little help, in my view.

Can we try and keep posts in their correct threads please? Several above are more suited to the winter thread rather than the model, or am I in a minority here? Nothing wrong with the discussion though.

Drty but mostly cloudy, a low of 5.1C, at about 0100 before it turned cloudy, now 7.1C

The NOAA output supports that idea k, the 6-10 is still solid in the block with actual contour ridge and marked +ve heights but the 8-14 is a marked change on the last issue I have stored, 2 days ago. If it remains with this theme then the idea of blocking for 7-8 days or so slowly changing to a 500mb flow from about WSW encroaching from the NW looks about right. Temperatures recovering to give mean values about or a shade above normal for late October. Also likely to become less settled over all parts, spreading from the W/NW. NOAA link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

This thread bodes ill for the model thread when we get the first 528DM line within reindeer distance of Scotland!

Dry but cloudy, showers late evening, a low of 6.8C

Not quite a ground frost, curreent low is 3.9C, clear sky, no wind, and 3.9C is the lowest since 28 April.

Some striking model output on offer so far today, which is a nice progression from the fairly uninspiring charts of the past couple of days. This is largely down to the high looking to have more of a chance of retrogression west of the UK for a time... but what are the odds that the changes to a more zonal regime not only manifest but do so at just the right time to topple the high before anything much comes out of it not if the anomaly charts are anywhere near correct between 6 and 14 days!

Beautiful from mid morning and practically cloudless this afternoon, very little breeze in my back garden,max of 16.4C and saw XH558 on finals into Doncaster, maybe another flight before it finishes?

sorry my memory is not up to that sort of filing, someone else may be able to say though. It is different to what we saw at this time last year. Caution though, for you or anyone else, trying to match October patterns to the coming winter. The huge computer facilities at NOAA, UK Met and ECMWF have never been able to get enough to be able to use this, on its own, as any indicator. The issue of 3 month or more forecasting is still in its infancy and it may well take decades before anything shows usable results in my view. That said the model output from UK Met IF looked at objectively is not bad. Well that is my opinion over the last couple of autumn into winter periods. So long as folk look at it like I say objectively and as a background idea. just read the post by chio above, should have done this before I posted, very interesting comments there. apologies to admin and mods if this should really just have a link after the first sentence and be put in the winter thread?