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johnholmes

Retired Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Posts posted by johnholmes

    2015 - The Year's Notables

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    6 days of snow in January with 3 days lying, 2 consecutive, not bad for this area

    May was pretty wet with 15mm on one day along with a coolish month

    June had a very warm end with a mean of 19.0C for the last 6 days and a high of 31.8C the last day

    This continued into July with my highest value in 18 years on the 1st with 34.8C, and this has only once been exceeded, as far as I know in this area, RAF Finningley 3 August 1990 with 35.5C

    August was very wet with 91.8mm and 22.1mm on 22 along with a fairly impressive couple of storms that evening.

    September was notable for the number of consecutive mornings with fog=6, probably the highest in a very long time

    so some notable weather for me so far

    2015 - The Year's Notables

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A very interesting year its been as far as weather is concerned,

     

    But at least my cobweb covered electric fan got a chance to do the twist and shout for two days on June 30th, hopefully next year it will be doing more of the same. But apart from that:

     

    The dreaded North/South devide dominating all summer giving headache as im in the North.

    Watching fantastic thunderstorms on July 1st

    Sudden snow fall in Janurary

     

    your weather means little to anyone else as you have no town in your avatar, so sadly we have no idea where you are?

    any chance of you putting your location in your avatar please?

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    Winter 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Im glad this Continental HP cell is here now and not deep in Winter.......Im looking forward to a Pattern change come end of November with a lovely backed West Scandi High cell allowing for fog frosts and colder weather, then migrating North North West for a lovely snowy Mid December NE to occur bringing snow and ice and cold...........Yum...and staying in place until March :D

     

    I expect you believe in Santa Claus as well!

    • Like 11

    Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The anomaly charts and synoptic ones mostly seem to have got the idea of an upper ridge E/SE of the UK and the main trough well out in the Atlantic. This gives overall a flow from south of west into the UK, so on the mild side most days. How unsettled is for the synoptic models to give detail.

    links below

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    For those who might like to see how the upper air pattern is being predicted on the 500mb anomaly charts I use, see links below

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    These two have varied over the past few days on how to deal with the trough/ridge pattern, this morning it is GFS which has more ridge showing, yesterday it was EC, so to me they, while giving an idea of a flattish pattern westerly at 500mb they are not consistent enough to be really reliable.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    Prior to the last 2 outputs the NOAA suggestion was for a rounded type trough just about over the UK with some extension into Europe and little sign of any ridge. The last two days and it has gone down the road you see in the link above. Again consistency over more than 2 days is lacking. So again it would seem prudent to me to reserve judgement. If the pattern is similar again this evening then, on the experience of using these charts over 4-5 years, then I would 'go' with the NOAA pattern. If they show some marked change then forget all 3 for a bit!

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I made these notes earlier after looking at the NOAA 6-10 day chart

     

    noaanoaa

    on FRI and the 6-10 has reverted back to the idea of ridging/building anomaly heights fairly close to the uk, see below

     

    notes from Wed below

    Noaa 6-10 much as one above but slight increase in +ve heights over uk with slightest indication of ridging e of Iceland towards Greenland; this is increased in both on 8-14

    Also on both trough is w of last prediction

    Missed Thur

    link

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    Not too sure as it is quite a change over 48 hours but it is supported by the 8-14 chart.

    As to what effect the very large Hurricane almost on to Mexico will have, who knows, we have to wait for 2-3 days to see how the anomaly charts behave let alone the synoptic models.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This has to be about the most depressing season I can remember. Lots of sunshine during the week when stuck at work then miserable grey/wet weekends. Absolutely sick of it. Be as well being horrible all the time like last autumn which, despite being the dullest since 1968, gave more weekend sunshine than this hideous season.

     

    Four awful grey Saturdays in a row and what's coming up is just even worse. A vile wet day to make it five horrors in a row. Only one good Saturday all autumn so far in fact (19th Sept). Over 5 hours sun average per week day this month and under 3 at the weekend which will get even worse with the upcoming write-off. Just abysmal :wallbash:

     

     

    thank you for your usual up beat report Richard. I do hope you are a little more happy when at home with your family. Life sounds so depressing for you from a weather point of view. Quite often too your comments are somewhat different from other posters in your area. You mention work, just where is that and how far from Aberdeen. genuine interest Richard.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    highly unusual for me to do this and I apologise for doing so but it is to show that the anomaly charts, for all the negative comments about them at times, are often the most reliable, if they show consistency, for the 500mb pattern over the 6-15 day times range.

     

    post from last evening

    I think it is fairly clear that starting today the weather is going to be more changeable in most areas, more so the further W/NW one lives, quite windy, looking at the mean 500mb charts which suggest some fairly deep lows at times. ECMWF-GFS are not very 'stable' at the moment but the NOAA output, in spite of NOAA comments about their domain, the 500mb anomaly charts have given consistent charts for several days. Just how the Pacific will play out with the input from typhoons is just as likely to be inconsistent at the surface as a result as it is when Hurricanes/tropical storms, arrive in the N Atlantic. It looks obvious, however the surface actually ends up in the 6-15 day time frame, that more wind (gales-severe gales) will be most felt in the NW and perhaps W as well.

    NOAA link

    http://www.cpc.noaa....10day/500mb.php

    AS to how the models are dealing or not dealing very consistently with surface lows over the next week does make for interesting model watching.

    • Like 6
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