johnholmes

Fairly cloudy and rather breezy with a low of 13.2C so far

Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

18.7C here just now, must look and see what my record is for November, more like late April or even some summer days, breezy but lots of warm sunshine

To me it seems the overall pattern for a couple of weeks is an unsettled westerly over the Atlantic and into Europe. So a mix of Tm and Pm air for most with the Pm air most noticeable and most frequent for more northern parts. If you like a nw-n/se-s split. Possibly some pretty deep lows passing between Iceland and Scotland at times so windy as well in association with them.

dry, breezy with areas of Sc cloud and a ridiculous temperature for this time in November, currently 15.8C and the 'low' is 15.8C! This is almost 3C above the average Min for the summer months!

before too many show 'like' for this post it is NOT anywhere a done deal yet, and I only suggested hours NOT days IF it does happen, and not a major pattern change!

Obviously the weather has not yet read that the month has changed,14.4C max which is about what is supposed to be the afternoon value a month ago. It sure will be a shock to plants and ourselves when we do get a bit below normal!

There are differences between the ECMWF-GFS upper pattern and that of NOAA. This in the ne Canada/Greenland area and further north. It is unclear just yet which pattern will be nearer the mark. It is not often that NOAA is wrong in these pattern changes but we have to wait and see. links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Wonderful orange sunrise through areas of Sc, dry and a low of 6.5C

don't apologise Paddy, we all have to learn and folk on here will be willing to help you. start with the most simple and gradually work up. Both with observing data and learning how to read the models. Try the Net Wx Guides for help with the models but don't leave. It's a fascinating hobby and almost all on here are 'weather nuts' regards John

The anomaly charts still show a generally westerly 500mb flow out to day 14/15 and perhaps beyond. The 'kink' that ECMWF-GFS showed in the flow yesterday has gone this morning. NOAA has so far not suggested that option. The only possible glimpse of this is the smallish +ve heights shown NE Canada-western Greenland. Nothing substantial enough to really excite any cold watcher. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php for slightly further ahead the MJO (GFS version) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml actual and predict show nothing more than 1-3. link to probable 500mb pattern for November for those below http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

fairly cloudy, mostly high level Sc and a low of 5.9C

Clearing up nicely with patchy Sc and Ci, very mild at 17.6C and dewpoint still over 14C; more like a warmish rather muggy September day.

Rain started around 0500 moderate/heavy around 0750-0800 (34.6 mm/hr), total so far=9.8 mm, a low before the rain of 9.4C now on 15.3C and dewpoint on 14.5C, each up around 5C since the rain started

I take your point MPG but if we look at the statistics for 10 days, using the data seen when Gibby posts, or available off the NOAA site, then GFS and for that matter ECMWF are little better than a 1 in 3 to 4 chance of being correct. UK Met have a great deal we don’t see as you rightly comment but the input from Ian’s TV discussions with the senior man at Exeter do help throw some light on why they at times make subtle changes to their 6-15 or 16-30 day outlooks. Today is an example, yesterday no mention of any change today, link below http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast But the bit which may interest those wanting cold is ‘..though tending to turn somewhat colder in the north later.’ All we have is the anomaly charts from various sources and looking at what the MJO, AO and NAO suggest. Within some bounds I find this input can be helpful to make me widen my checking of the data we have available to try and arrive at my own balanced view of how things may develop.

cloudy but dry, mild with the low on 12.6C so far

not really what he said, 'less mild, drier, was what I heard, no mention of a northerly unless I missed that? the link see what you believe John Hammond said http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34741548

The fact, assuming it is fact, that the models (synoptic ones) are showing, at times, a more unsettled/changeable set up has zilch to do with any prospect of a cold regime, from Greenland-Arctic northern Scandinavia. What might happen mid month is beyond my scope but what little I understand about longer term teleconnections does not suggest any major pattern swing by then. Of course we simply do not know with the data we can access. UK Met with their access to huge amounts from any model centre they wish to access, including their own, seem dubious, at the moment, of any marked change to deep cold out to early December. But it is fun to try and outsmart them which is why so many of us scan the models and try to look for signs of white falling from the sky at our our own location.So long as we respect one another's point of view and keep of the personal digs etc the upcoming months can be enjoyable and interesting.

overcast with spots of rain, a low of 10.0 now on 11.3C

And as such has a pretty low probability of being anything more than, IF it verifies, a 24 perhaps 48 hours burst of Pm air. Until the anomaly charts start to solidly show such development then what most folk on here want, lengthy cold is unlikely in my view.

for Cantley Cantley weather summary for October 2015 Maximum temperature 0.9C above average but the mean shows 0.3C due to slightly lower minimums. A fairly wet month overall but with 16 days showing no rainfall at all. Mean=11.6 (11.3) Avge Max=15.5 (14.6) Highest daytime=20.8 on the 2nd and the coldest day was 24th with 12.4 Avge Min=7.7 (7.9) the coldest night 25th with 3.2 and the warmest night was 6th with 15.0 No thunder hail or snow but fog on 3 mornings Rainfall 63.4 mm with the wettest day 6th with 20.0 mm; 10 days with 0.2 mm or more and 8 with 1.0 mm or more

Dull, damp, sky obscured in fog, a low earlier in the night of 9.3C, now 10.1C

roll on the Atlantic having more say, more variety then, 2 days of dismal, misty, murky conditions for here. another day with single digit maximum

not sure if the system will let me post this in the format I have created it. If not I attempted to equate the post above by Frosty for the same date with the 500mb chart Is the 06z for 12/11/15 that frosty shows, see below for 500mb chart anything like the 500mb anomaly for 6-10 days ahead? 12/11 GFS 500mb Looking at the output below the GFS version is more westerly with a source zone from NE Canada/West Greenland. The NOAA chart has the source from further south and a south of west flow over the UK. Fairly minor really and it is possible for a temporary shift in the flow over a 24-48 hour period. So it is a possibility but about 50:50 I would think for now. NOAA 6-10 current chart Nope but you can check yourself if sufficiently interested with the links below last evening from NOAA 6-10 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and Net Wx Extra for 500mb for 11 Nov