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johnholmes

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Posts posted by johnholmes


  1. 16 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    Yes but you've said that we would need the zonal winds to drop. Which is it? The zonal or the blocked Euro high? The two aren't mutually compatible with halting cold over the UK until February March

    It's December 9th. 

    FI looks tasty on some ensembles. That's the -10C over London.

    881664489_Screenshot2019-12-09at07_12_56.thumb.png.da1b0af37363be0de2435595de89cf27.png

     

    Meantime a lively week of weather with plenty of sleet and snow around.

    One only with two that show +10 or so, being a bit choosy are you not?


  2. Dropping the latest 500 mb anomaly charts in along with my comments on them

    Wednesday 4 December

    A while since I made any comment, this morning both ec and gfs showed a similar pattern with very –ve heights and deep troughing in much the same place=nw of Norway-uk-down to n Africa, slightly different angle though

    Noaa shows a not dissimilar pattern, some ridging in w atlantic and the fairly –ve heights troughing the other 2 have.

    Overall the 3, over several days seem to have been moving to this pattern, rather more mobile than recently but with a tendency perhaps still for features developing e of n America to run s of e rather than the more usual n of e? Also surface temps probably around or even below at times. The 540 dm line runs just s of uk and originates from fairly high latitudes!

    Time will tell I suppose.

    Wednesday 4 December

    A while since I made any comment, this morning both ec and gfs showed a similar pattern with very –ve heights and deep troughing in much the same place=nw of Norway-uk-down to n Africa, slightly different angle though

    Noaa shows a not dissimilar pattern, some ridging in w atlantic and the fairly –ve heights troughing the other 2 have.

    Overall the 3, over several days seem to have been moving to this pattern, rather more mobile than recently but with a tendency perhaps still for features developing e of n America to run s of e rather than the more usual n of e? Also surface temps probably around or even below at times. The 540 dm line runs just s of uk and originates from fairly high latitudes!

    Time will tell I suppose.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

     


  3. 5 minutes ago, Paul said:

    It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway!

    Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely. 

    Yes I did wonder what sort of reaction it would get. But like you say Paul quite entertaining. A 'good' forecast is one which folk want to see regardless of how accurate it may turn out. No one knows re that from TWS until next spring but god him for doing a forecast as he sees it rather than pandering to the hope brigade.


  4. Well, at last, things are opening up, from about 5500 ft it looks so about 5 or 6 lifts, and the cafe bar still not got a proper roof on it after the severe storm last weekend, well just prior to the weekend

    image.thumb.png.5a9d285ac441a61ef963a467c1e16fa4.png

    some links below

    86c0812ca96b5fde_58535108a1d1c23a.jpg
    WWW.BERGFEX.COM

    Jungfrau Ski Region Grindelwald - Wengen : Switzerland - Jungfraujoch - Live pictures - Webcams - Webcam - Bernese Oberland - Livecam - Cams - Weather camera - Ski resort - Ski area -

     

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