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johnholmes

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Article Comments posted by johnholmes


  1. On 10/07/2018 at 10:04, Paul said:

    @knocker & @johnholmes - thought this article may be of interest :) 

    Hi Paul

    Will make time to read this, possibly not for a week or so. Just back from visiting French friends and back to Geneva for a short walking holiday Friday 6am!!

    And thanks to Jo, there is also, if memory serves me correctly, an article on this subject on the Met O site. All the things mentioned do make a difference. I remember when as S Met O and being asked to check out prospective weather sites at several amateur stations the problems being so rigorous caused to a few folk who wanted to be official stations.


  2. the idea of some kind of meet up, mind you it would need paying for, has been discussed on the open forum and elsewhere, both for synoptic meteorology and the teleconnections side.

    There are enough quite well qualified people to make it feasible.

    Best you pm Paul and see if it could be put up to test reaction.

    I would be happy to do day to day synoptic meteorology.


  3. thanks Stewart

    I think!

    Taking your points 1), 2) and 3).

    If I summed it up thus for numpty's like me would my overall idea be correct?

    Low GWO means that northern blocking in winter is more likely than an active Atlantic?

    and this in spite of the QBO having a westerly component?

    but with a low solar minimum?


  4. Stewart a question

    we all know what did not happen with the Stratosphere warming. The fact that at 30mb, its almost back to normal?

    Is there any link with this and what you are reporting and now forecasting in your view?

    If so what is your view on why we got no real effect, well most of the northern hemisphere got no real effect from this huge warming event?

    answers in simple English please, none of your exotic science if possible for me as a simple soul!

    many thanks


  5. Only just noticed the post from Steve and the comments from GP (Stewart)

    First let me say I've never done any other than repeatedly, if anyone reads my lrf outputs, said anything other than its a new area to me. I find it fascinating trying to give a general idea for 2-3 weeks ahead. Like GP I'll be here Steve, through the whole year, God willing, to carry on, as I did through the whole of last year Not just Winter, trying to improve the lrf idea, trying to learn more about the topic.

    I thought I had said enough times that no single link is the way to forecast, you have to look at every item that may impact over the time scale you are trying to forecast for. That is what I try to do. I try not to be selective. I try to post things as I see them honestly and I'm pretty sure my lrf's over the past 13 months show that. I continue to believe that, be they CPC charts, ECMWF hemisphere charts, Stratosphere input, ENSO etc etc, all have a part to play and all of us, I hope, accept that we are learning. No one gets it right and I've already put my hand up regarding the prediction of deep cold by now. I have been forecasting for far too long to be afraid to say I got it wrong.

    All of us have something to contribute to this forum so lets just do that and not, as winter (officially) draws to a close get a bit niggly with one another.

    As, I think most of you would find, if you apply the Mr D winter index for the station nearest you, many of us have had a fairly memorable winter in terms of length of cold, some even for extremes of cold, and some for length of snow on the ground.


  6. thanks Stewart for another fascinating read, most of which I THINK I understood.

    Interesting that several of us, from not the quite same direction, tend to feel that the models are not really showing what is 'around the corner' so to speak.

    I agree that cold or at least below normal is the most likely temperature level for the Uk as a whole, and into March as you say. How far in I have no idea just yet.

    thanks again Stewart.


  7. I'm posting this here in response to the discussion regarding this paper http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-046...69-22-6-597.pdf .....in the Model Output Thread.

    However this paper begins by talking about a mid-Jan 63 warming as contibuting to that phenomenal winter that I remember so well.

    Len

    re the above link Len.

    I'm not convinced by that article, although I am fairly well convinced by the general argument that events in the Troposphere are linked to what has happened in the Troposphere. Their argument, if it is to try and explain the severe winter of 1962-63, falls down as by mid January the severe cold had been in existence over much of the UK since just after Xmas.


  8. can't argue with that reasoning Stewart and we, to my amateur eye, need the 30mb Stratospheric temperature to start climbing on the actual chart not the forecast one.

    I still reckon we are at the end of the first week in February perhaps the second before any really marked northern ridging develops?


  9. interesting posts as usual from our lrf gurus, even if some of it is difficult for me to get hold of.

    I tend to agree with the summary by Stewart that high pressure is likely to be not far from the UK, maybe over or just ese of UK but then I'm only a beginner at this.

    Seems not much chance to me, at the moment, from what I read in the signals of any northern blocking until into February at the earliest?


  10. thanks GP, as ever some of your theory is above my old head but much of it I understand and agree with your final paragraph. Unsettled but overall not mild. I feel there is a short 'window' as I suggested last evening around 15-20 January but then believe we have to wait for early February for most support for a noticably colder interlude.

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