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johnholmes

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Everything posted by johnholmes

  1. Dry with fairly small amounts of CuSc after alight rain overnight=0.2 mm since midnight. A low of 4.1 C
  2. Dry with variable cloud at the moment after rain earlier, 3.4 mm since midnight, and a low of 3.3.C.
  3. Dry and mostly cloudy but a few breaks visible, a low of 4.3 C
  4. Dry with variable cloud, a low of 2.4 C but no sign of any ground frost
  5. Looking at the surface pressure, IF it is close, then a definite fall to the 13 th with a rise thereafter but becoming totally unreliable after a further few days?
  6. Please remember the NAO is not a predictor, it simply tells how the surface pressure in between north of 60 north and around 40 north is being predicted by the models.
  7. The 500 mb anomaly charts, yes I know some of you do not like them. Anyway they show what it says on the tin but they do also show a 'mean' of what the 500 mb contour flow is predicted to be 6-10 days and with NOAA out to 14 days. It is less complex trying to predict how things may turn out on these time scales at 500 mb than at the surface. So what do they suggest? ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Much as they both have for a number of days now, some kind of flow from S of West on this morning's charts This is a bit of a change froma week ago when the flow was shown as N of West. The constant is their view that troughing and unsettled is the theme rather than a settled one with any upper high close by. NOAA is not that different either a week ago or last evening and its 8-14 day chart continues with a flow off the Atlantic , somewhat less strong than the 6-10 charts show, especially in the north. They are of course 'mean' charts so day to day there can be variations but the overall pattern will be similar. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV I honestly cannot see any major change in pattern or wavelength for the coming 7-12 days at least. Possibly as the predicted decrease in the flow in the north may allow heights to try and build along with a rise in surface pressure in the longer term, 10-14 days poerhaps? This would mean less in the way of gales in the NW. Temperatures at the surface, with mainly Pm type air then average to below, so some snow on hills from about the Peak District north with a possibility of brief snowfall further south ahead of frontal systems. But no real sign to me of any lasting cold. Do feel free to tell me different, it is only my attempt at a broad brush treatment using 500 mb predictions.
  8. One only with two that show +10 or so, being a bit choosy are you not?
  9. A cloudy, dry and mild start with a low of 11.2 C It is the mildest night since 11 October!
  10. Dropping the latest 500 mb anomaly charts in along with my comments on them Wednesday 4 December A while since I made any comment, this morning both ec and gfs showed a similar pattern with very –ve heights and deep troughing in much the same place=nw of Norway-uk-down to n Africa, slightly different angle though Noaa shows a not dissimilar pattern, some ridging in w atlantic and the fairly –ve heights troughing the other 2 have. Overall the 3, over several days seem to have been moving to this pattern, rather more mobile than recently but with a tendency perhaps still for features developing e of n America to run s of e rather than the more usual n of e? Also surface temps probably around or even below at times. The 540 dm line runs just s of uk and originates from fairly high latitudes! Time will tell I suppose. Wednesday 4 December A while since I made any comment, this morning both ec and gfs showed a similar pattern with very –ve heights and deep troughing in much the same place=nw of Norway-uk-down to n Africa, slightly different angle though Noaa shows a not dissimilar pattern, some ridging in w atlantic and the fairly –ve heights troughing the other 2 have. Overall the 3, over several days seem to have been moving to this pattern, rather more mobile than recently but with a tendency perhaps still for features developing e of n America to run s of e rather than the more usual n of e? Also surface temps probably around or even below at times. The 540 dm line runs just s of uk and originates from fairly high latitudes! Time will tell I suppose. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  11. Dry, cloudless with a lovely orange sunrise and a low of 0.7 C, patchy ground frost
  12. Yes I did wonder what sort of reaction it would get. But like you say Paul quite entertaining. A 'good' forecast is one which folk want to see regardless of how accurate it may turn out. No one knows re that from TWS until next spring but god him for doing a forecast as he sees it rather than pandering to the hope brigade.
  13. Dry with small amounts Ci, milder than recently, nice orange sunrise and a low of 2.8 C
  14. Quite a lot of cloud around, dry with white frost in places, a low of -2.0 C and currently on -0.8 C
  15. I honestly don't know f. I reckon provided none of us get up tight about anyone elses' use then we should be fine. Maybe say something like 'general w'ly Atlantic flow but mainly Pm air or if it is predicted milder than average mention Tm air from time to time'?
  16. Re is the flow zonal, here is the Wilkipedia definition, you may agree or disagree, I think it is about right, but we probably are best to agree to disagree perhaps rather than risk getting into discussions/arguments Zonal and meridional - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
  17. To my untutored eye using these charts I would suggest anything could happen beyond 6-7 December, or am I posting rubbish?
  18. Not a clear start this morning, a lot of cloud around, dry with plenty of white frost, temperature now on 0.7 C with a low since midnight of -0.7 C, below zero C by 1845 yesterday evening
  19. A cold sunny day with frost all day in some shady spots along with ice on a bird bath and some ice persisting on the small pond in the shade. A max of 5.1 C
  20. The possible trouble is ECMWF shows a rather different chart for a similar timescale http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html As does NOAA Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV I wonder which will be correct. At the time scales shown, quite often some kind of half way house is what the actual chart often ends up with?
  21. Well, at last, things are opening up, from about 5500 ft it looks so about 5 or 6 lifts, and the cafe bar still not got a proper roof on it after the severe storm last weekend, well just prior to the weekend some links below BERGFEX-Webcams Jungfrau Ski Region Grindelwald - Wengen - Webcam Jungfrau Ski Region Grindelwald - Wengen - Cams WWW.BERGFEX.COM Jungfrau Ski Region Grindelwald - Wengen : Switzerland - Jungfraujoch - Live pictures - Webcams - Webcam - Bernese Oberland - Livecam - Cams - Weather camera - Ski resort - Ski area -
  22. Cloudless with a lovely red sunrise, white frost everywhere with a low of -3.2 C
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