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johnholmes

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Everything posted by johnholmes

  1. To rty and answer wb and mb Well of course the overall air movement is west to east at any level. It is the ridges and troughs that govern the type of weather we experience. So the pattern of the contours is what gives a clue to what the 500 mb pattern may be 6-10 or 8-14 days ahead. This in turn can give solid clues as to the surface weather in the same periods. As we all know the weather is an extremely complex beast. Even after following it for over 60 years 38 of them as a professional I learn things if not every day then most times I log on to the weather models or read peer reviewed articles about various aspects of meteorology, and also from folk on Net Weather. Going back to the comment from mb about the anomalies shown. They, even more than the contour lines, need very very careful use. Remember they are showing anomalies over what the average contour height is in any one place at any one time. They can be helpful but, I'm not knocking anyone for trying to make use of these charts, far from it I welcome this, but they do need a lot of experience to use them constructively. The anomaly mb mentions is around 150 DM and was sufficient for me to make comment about it. It was also very different from the previous several days shown by NOAA and consistency is something that is also needed in these charts, not much different from the synoptic outputs. Last evening is the first such chart so no definite knowledge that this could be a change. Helped though by EC also suggesting some moderate height rises in a similar area. I've perhaps not explained things very well but am happy to chat via pm rather than clutter the thread up if either of you wish to do this. regards John
  2. All 3 show an overall pattern in the contours that has a mainly westerly flow in the broad scale?
  3. A couple of days ago I very nearly commented on what, to me, seemed a mismatch of the forecast and the Met O Fax charts. But then BBC TV is based on Meteo outputs, which, I think, are a mix of EC and GFS?
  4. Yes it was a clearly marked trough on the 06Z Fax chart and fitted what happened over some parts. Odd that the lunch time BBC Met trained forecaster made no mention of this. Perhaps the senior man laid down the instruction. It does happen.
  5. Gawd a 'quick' skim through suggests it is a very complex paper. Interesting that they suggest more than one parameter, (if I'm reading it correctly).
  6. To try and move the discussion to the weather outlook, the 500 mb anomaly charts are not on the same page, well not all 3 of them anyway. Noaa interestingly shows +ve ehights, 150 DM, so a reasonable value centred to the WNW of the UK. Overall there is still some degree of concencus for the UK trough, shall I call it this (?), down to Iberia. Anyway have a look at the 3 charts and decide yourselves how the 6-10 day surface weather may pan out. charts following http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html The 8-14 Noaa, as is often the case, smooths most of this out to show a general westerly flow from what it shows as the main trough way out west. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  7. The reason I posted the chart last evening was to show how little difference there is between Kew and Heathrow. The argument crops up every year, every time Heathrow is shown as the hottest. Where does anyone want it sited? Maybe instead of the repeated comments in Net Wx you all write to the Met Office with your views. Oddly enough there was, I believe, none of this discussion about the London Weather Centre or the one in Manchester, both sited on flat roofs, close to air conditioning units, lots of tarmac type covering close by.
  8. Mostly clear skies but small blobs of Ac Cas, the low was 16.6 C now on 18.8 C
  9. I thought this might be of interest in the, what seems like, perennial discussion about the Heathrow temperature readings
  10. A difference between a front and a trough is that on a front the dewpoint will fall, not necessarily so on a trough, indeed quite often it does not
  11. It only needs to get to 36.5 C and in whole degrees it becomes 37C. Temperatures are always 'thrown' to the odd number, up or down.
  12. Look at the Met O Fax 0600 Z chart, the reason is clear, a trough from the low in Biscay!
  13. At last hardly any cloud to start the day, another muggy one with a low of 17.0 C
  14. I suspect many parts will see less cloud tomorrow, other than the ST variety on some southern coasts, not sure about that as I have not really been watching how the very low level is being modelled. The reason I suggest generally less cloud is that the overall wind flow will back so that the flow comes more off the continent than it has been over the past couple of days. So predictions of 30+C in the Midlands generally seem quite attainable, possibly 32 C or so.
  15. Which is why matching those with the nearest GFS or ECm is useful, the NOAA charts will give you an accurate idea of the mean pattern of troughing and ridging plus the mean upper flow. You can then extraploate surface detail off the nearest ops... This is a very successful method that ive been employing for some time now, and its certainly more stable and accurate for that timeframe then trying to decide which op has found a new trend. Very true mushy, as usual with a great deal of care, but for those interested it is worth giving it a go. Not just now but in the hectic search for cold come the winter!
  16. re this Anomaly charts are great for trends but they can't tell me what weather I might get on a certain day, which the NWP does very well (usually) within 6 days. I do agree that, good as it is to see folk looking and using these charts, sometimes the summary of what the poster says they show is, in my view, not really correct. As MWB posts they are not for surface detail at all. They can, when used carefully, give a very good idea of what the general weather is likely to be in the 6-10 day range and can be useful in the 8-14 day outlook also..
  17. Another muggy start with complete cloud cover but dry, the low is 17.6 C some 5 C above the 24 year average
  18. Mostly cloudy but with brief bursts of sun after rain overnight, 1.2 mm since midnight, muggy again with a 'low' of 16.6 C
  19. I would not disagree with your comments mushy, Noaa is usually closer to the 'average' chart in the 6-10 day period than GFS. It has, as you comment, also been the more consistent over the past few days. So yes I'd back the Noaa version if I fell off the fence! Its 8-14 keeps a similar pattern also.
  20. An early taste of winter, it is at 8,000 ft! Interaktive 360°-Webcam im Skigebiet Kleine Scheidegg-Männlichen - Webcam PANOMAX 360° PANOCAM.SKILINE.CC Interaktive 360°-Webcam im Skigebiet Kleine Scheidegg-Männlichen
  21. It is not surprising there are variations in the synoptic models. The 500 mb charts cannot agree from day to day. If the atmosphere's pattern is uncertain at 500 mb then hardly surprising that the surface has issues in continuity. All 3 this morning go back to the charts showing blocking and troughing such that the heat MIGHT continue for more than 1-3 days? Fence sitting time for jh!
  22. Dry but increasingly cloudy after a fairly sunny start, a low of 7.8 C lower than for some time
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