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johnholmes

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Everything posted by johnholmes

  1. Fairly cloudy now after slight rain earlier (0.6 mm since midnight) with a low of 8.6 C at the moment
  2. Overcast with mainly slight rain and a low of 8.3 C, not sure if any overnight rain although paths and road looked wet. Actually raining from just after 0800, 1.4 mm so far
  3. Overcast but dry now after 1.8 mm of rain from midnight on top of the 14.6 mm yesterday afternoon and evening, a low of 9.5 C
  4. I doubt it will last beyond 6-10 days, that is assuming it does happen. Beyond 2 weeks is out of my league c-n. For the 6-14 days I would be more convinced it is going to happen once/if NOAA show very similar height rises and indeed ridging as ECMWF-GFS is doing.
  5. Re the highlighted I would not describe the past 4 months in such a way
  6. The upper air pattern is starting, especially EC-GFS, to show indications of height rises rather than the deep upper trough as the main feature. So the synoptic models showing this type in the 6-10 day period are probably showing the most likely pattern> 500 mb anomaly charts below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV no idea why the NOAA link is showing as it is rather than its 'normal' way, anyway simply click on the www link please
  7. Overcast with very slight rain and a lot more to come looking at the radar, just 0.6 mm so far since midnight, a low of 10.8 C
  8. Cloudy with very slight rain, a trace only since midnight, a low of 13.4 C
  9. Great seeing these images. Way way back in the early 70's we got the basic black and white images in most Met Offices. That is if one of us had time to set up the machine as the signal started to come in. The clever bit came when trying to use the basic oversheets with one for most passes with any land mass one could see. Prior to that Central Forecasting at Bracknell sent out a composite drawing of the significant cloud masses on the faxsimile machine. Memories!
  10. In the years you quote basic modelling was still in its infancy for a few days ahead. LRF work had not started in any operational way.
  11. Some change that, I have seen similar in the Jungfrau region at 6,000 ft in August.
  12. Just look at the depth of the 'jet', say winds above 90-95, from 500 150 mb. Not often it extends through that depth.
  13. Mostly cloudy and dry after very slight rain/shower in the early hours, 0.2 mm since midnight, a low of 8.6 C
  14. Cloudy with a glimpse of the sun a while ago but clouded over again; rain last evening into this morning with 6.0 mm since midnight, 8.6 in total from around 2200, a low of 10.2 C
  15. I'm not sure I follow what you mean. The original post suggested a link between 'weather' in October to 'weather' the following winter. I responded that there was, as yet, no reliable link. weather not climate.
  16. Hi Paul Will make time to read this, possibly not for a week or so. Just back from visiting French friends and back to Geneva for a short walking holiday Friday 6am!! And thanks to Jo, there is also, if memory serves me correctly, an article on this subject on the Met O site. All the things mentioned do make a difference. I remember when as S Met O and being asked to check out prospective weather sites at several amateur stations the problems being so rigorous caused to a few folk who wanted to be official stations.
  17. Cloudy, dry and mild then yesterday morning at this time, with just 0.4 mm of rain since midnight, a low of 9.5 C
  18. I have to disagree feb, no one hasever shown any statistical correlation between October and subsequent winters. All that fits is that it gets colder from1 October into meteorological winter. That work/research applies to the main weather centres or any amateur work that has been done down the years
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