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johnholmes

Retired Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by johnholmes

  1. Thanks for that info k, think I'll ask my library to get it, if not then I'll have to buy it j
  2. Dry, a lot cloud, milder than 24 hours ago, the low is 7.6 C, currently up to 9.7 C
  3. Dry now after rain or showers earlier, 2.0 mm since midnight, much colder than recent nights, current low is 4.2 C actual down to 3.9 C
  4. A view of the probable weather using the 500 mb anomaly charts Wednesday 20 October Long time since any charts copied and commented on! Ec and still a trough dominated chart, fairly tight contours over uk with minimal ridging effect to south;main trough 40W Noaa and similar pattern to ec, small +ve anomaly w of Iberia, trough similar position but more rounded Surface weather looks fairly unsettled if these two charts are anywhere near what happens; any ridging at the surface will be brief between weather systems; 500 mb temperatures are a shade higher than they have been over the past week but on both charts the air is over n of Hudson bay before looping back just s of Aleutian islands, so never very mild other than in warm sectors of weather systems. The 8-14 Noaa suggests little major change in the 500 mb pattern. This would suggest that the surface weather will also show not much change. Possibly a nw-se split for most of the 6-14 day period=less unsettled in the se; fog may be a problem some nights where winds are light and skies clear ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  5. Dry and mostly cloudy, a low of 12.7 C currently, rain showing on radar in Nottingham area
  6. Mild and dry at the moment, but the radar shows it raining all around, a low of 13.8 C the highest this month
  7. Became mostly cloudy by 0900; what a change in temperature and dewpoint; T from 2.3 C to 15.1 C at the moment with Td from 1.7 to 10.7 C
  8. The comment about Ian is quite wrong. He was in fact the senior forecaster on duty that night at London Weather Centre.
  9. Dry and cold, variable cloud, not sure if I got a ground frost but the current low is 2.3 C, the coldest night since early May
  10. Dry after 1.5 mm of rain since midnight, current low is 6.6 C and falling slowly now down to 5.9 C with no cloud at all
  11. Don't bet on that, 4 is a better number for either very slow moving patterns or even stationary in my experience.
  12. How cold was it in 1963? simple=chuffing cold pretty solidly from just before Xmas '62 until into March 63 I worked SE of Nottingham with central heating so that was great. However the two buses home to Chesterfield were awful. The surprising fact was that on the weekends I went home every bus ran! Most of you will have seen the statistics I have posted more than once for RCAF Langar where I worked. I think the lawn at home was snow covered from late Boxing Day until mid March, from memory.
  13. Dry with variable cloud amounts and a low of 8.6 C
  14. permafrost-wow, until I noted your town, here we are lucky if we get a frost to even freeze the soil albeit briefly!
  15. Well the second line of rain/showers on the radar has just gone through here, briefly close on very heavy I thought, checked the Davis and it suggests 20.8 mm/hr at 1254, total 2.4 mm
  16. The latest 500 mb anomaly outputs with comments on how useful or not and a comment on the hype already developing in this thread for winter! I don't suppose I will be popular but as with any of us I am entitled to make comment using the models. Tuesday 12 October Ec=overall is trough dominated for uk, at 10-20W with ridging over Greenland, then trough-ridge-trough for n America and far w trough quite marked off west coast, flattish over pacific Noaa=it has dropped any ridging in uk area, this has happened slowly over last 2-3 days. It does seem to be ‘following’ ec rather than the more usual other way round. It was not very good in predicting the ridging we have had when ec was. This makes using Noaa less definite at the moment. Not sure if this is a brief decrease in confidence in it or something more lasting? Anyway much as ec in uk area, some indication of very slt +ve over Iberia, ridging over Greenland much less marked compared to ec, it shows just w of Greenland with marked +ve anomaly. (This is probably partly/largely due to it being where the main vortex usually is). Further west similar to ec So it looks like a more changeable period is developing for the uk 6-10 and 8-14 probably similar, so maybe 2 weeks, but how unsettled not clear just yet, although the 500 flow on both (s of w) is quite strong which suggests fairly unsettled for many. As to the comments using synoptic chart s for beyond T+240 and suggestions of these effects for an early winter. I do despair of some folk year on year trying to make the models shows what most want, cold and snow. ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  17. Sorry no one has answered you Ron, it is unusual for this to happen. Perhaps me posting may trigger help. Sorry I cannot give you any guidance, no knowledge at all of your problem. Good luck though.
  18. Dry with variable cloud amounts and another warm night, the low so far is 13.3 C
  19. Dry and overcast (low ST) and quite 'warm', the current low is 14.3 C, well above average
  20. What a beautiful day, hardly any breeze, blue sky and patchy Ci, T=22.1 C and Td=17 C ( to whole degree)
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