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Everything posted by johnholmes

  1. Sunday 24 March Five days on so what are the anomaly charts showing? ECMWF-GFS and EC has a rather different slant on the upper air predicted pattern. More of an Atlantic flow and less ridging in the UK area, in fact troughing being suggested in the flow around the UK. GFS has a faily strong flow N of W into the UK with the Azores upper ridge quite noticeable and the troughing much more marked east of the UK than on EC. Neither suggests any prolonged settled weather for northern areas, perhaps more so for the southern-most parts? NOAA shows the biggest change from 5 days ago with no sign of any contour ridging or +ve heights anywhere near the UK. Its 6-10 shows a broad trough over the country with +ve heights way west. So overall then by 4-6 days from now we should expect a spell of less settled weather than some have had over the past few days. This part of the UK has had little rain for about a week now .Nor does the 8-14 show any signal for this pattern not to continue. Just how much of the Uk and how changeable/unsettled it will become will need the 4x/2x daily synoptic outputs to give that detail. The possibility in this predicted pattern would allow for brief colder bursts to the rear of any marked Atlantic depressions. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  2. Clear and sunny with a low of 2.0 C now 4.6 C, no sign, even earlier, of any ground frost though.
  3. Always, well usually (!) a more reliable model output when we get cross model agreement. Beyond that then there are differences both between models and from run to run.
  4. Indications starting to show on the 500 mb anomaly charts that the ridging being in charge for most is looking like the upper troughing will become the main feature over the next 6-10 days? Will try and post more with charts tomorrow, IF they still show a similar idea.
  5. Bright but almost complete cover of cloud at varying heights, a low of 6.1 C
  6. Dry and cloudy with a very mild start and a low of 10.7 C
  7. Dry, now mostly cloudy after a bright start, a low of 7.0 C
  8. With a time scale much as over the past 4-5 months and we all know how many times it turned out close to what actually happened!
  9. Certainly like summer here, quite small amounts of cloud at differing heights and the Airport showing 19C the highest around it seems, I've peaked in my very sheltered back garden at 20.0 C, currently on 19.2 C
  10. Looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts a week since I last showed them and Tuesday 19 March So 7 days later Ec-gfs shows, (both) similar re positions ridgfing, strength and also position trough although gfs looks a deeper affair, the result would be for uk reasonably settled although gfs looks maybe touch less so as perhaps shade more mobile into its version of the European trough; both have had similar charts for several days Noaa and again its 6-10 looks fairly similar with the centre of gravity of the +ve heights shown over/close by s’ern uk, again a similar idea to its last few days along with a ridge in the 500 mb contours, a nw-se split probable with little flow the further se one lives in the uk. Its 8-14 shows the ridge (less marked as it usually does at this time scale but also further east) with rather more flow in the se than earlier. Overall then the surface weather fairly settled for a week-10 days, especially so for the se quarter of the uk, but most places should be less changeable than recently for some and with temperatures at or above normal. Just one possibility if the ridge ends up east of the uk, the dreaded low cloud for some eastern parts might, note might, develop! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  11. Mostly sunny, dry with a low of 3.5 C, currently on 5.4 C
  12. Cloudy, dry at the moment after 5.6 mm of rain sine midnight, very mild now at 10.5 C now we are in the warm sector, the low was 5.9 C before this
  13. This must be one of the windiest spells of weather for the Doncaster area, no showers here with sunny spells and windy rather than breezy, several gusts in the low 50's mph at the airport, possibly the 3rd or perhaps 4th day this month.
  14. Dry and windy, gusting 51 mph at airport, sunny spells after a shower earlier, 0.2 mm, very mild on 11.4 C from a low of 7.4 C
  15. UK Met Fax deepens it considerably as it crosses the Borders area into the N Sea.
  16. Cloudy, some breeze with trees swaying, slight rain at times, just 0.4 mm since midnight and a low of 6.9 C
  17. The developing form horse does seem to be trending towards a more ridgy type of westerly flow, even NOAA 6-10 is showing a developing ridge idea from the SW.
  18. Dry and fairly breezy with sunny spells and variable CuSc, 0.2 mm overnight; Max gust at airport 50
  19. Just to divert for a moment from the model outlook to the here and now. Looking at the radar on. There must be some local evaporative cooling as the weather report frome can see the sharp line on the cold front shown on the forecast on BBC this morning. What it did not show, nor was it predicted, the very minor ripple on this cold front that has given more rain. The ripple shows on the 09Z chart (link=http://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?map=UK&date=2019031211&size=large&lang=en&area=uk) in the Bristol Channel area and by 1100 over Lincs. There must be local evaporative cooling as the Peak District, Leek observations and also from PM gave sleet or even heavy snow briefly at Leek. The web cam by the Cat and Fiddle shows this as does that by Flash Bar stores.
  20. I've not posted in here for some time with my usual 500 mb anomaly charts but 1 possibly 2 of them are at last showing some indication of a possible upper air pattern change. Tue 12 March Well some time (2 weeks) since I made a full comment on these charts, largely because they have shown not a lot of change over that time), this morning the EC-GFS variants perhaps starting to, more especially GFS. The trough so much in evidence for so long is showing some sign of being, at least, modified by being placed a bit further west rather than over the UK. At the same time this wave length shift is also allowing the ridge to become more noticeable and having more effect on the UK.; the main area is now over Europe rather than in the Atlantic in the Azores region, (where it has waxed and waned to some extent over the past 2 weeks or so. The European trough has also disappeared on both these charts. This along with the Azores ridging at times gave us the slightly north of west flow bring in coldish Pm air. Turning to the NOAA output from last evening and it shows nor much inclination yet to follow the other two. Still with the Azores very slight ridging effect=t combined with the slight troughing into Europe, such a feature of the 500 mb predicted flow for so long. No major signal from its 8-14 day mean chart either of any significant change in emphasis. Also supporting this idea, to some extent, is the Met O 500 mb predictions for out to the 18 th March showing a marked upper trough over the UK (NE-SW) and the upper ridge to the west. Not able to show this but follow this link and scroll to the bottom of the page https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 So on balance to me it is a waiting game for 2-3 days to see if all the 500 mb predictions settle down to a more or less similar pattern. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
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