johnholmes

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johnholmes last won the day on February 25

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About johnholmes

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. My total today now at 24.4 mm after another band of shower/rain comes through
  2. Cloudy but just about dry now after a very wet overnight with 18.2 mm, a low of 13.9 C
  3. dry, mostly sunny start, some patchy cloud and a low of 11.8 C
  4. Yes I would agree with that sentiment, the 8-14 are more variable and do have to used with a great deal of caution. Usually, usually (!) IF they follow much as the 6-10 they are right more often than wrong. What degree of 'right' is another can of worms as well. On occasion they do flag up a change which the 6-10 have not yet done then the 6-10 follows but again hard to have any rules. The main one is 2-3 days of continuity the same as when comparing NOAA to EC-GFS outputs. Good fun though.
  5. I am not sure your comparisons are sound as far as I see it. But we each are entitled to our viewpoint so no big argument from me. I reckon the overall idea of the changes in the 500 mb flow in the 6-10 day time scale through the summer have been not far out on 70% of occasions. got visitors with me so cannot show the 6-10 day chart about a week ago to compare with the 00z 500 mb flow today. Not that I have any real idea if it is in the right ball park. It could be one of the 30% that were not really good guidance.
  6. Overcast and raining, 5.4 mm so far, a low now of 15.2 C, so a cooler day to come than for a good few days
  7. y but overcast with 8/8 low St, a low of 11.8 C
  8. Dry and mainly sunny, some upper cloud and contrails, a low of 11.6 C now up to 17.9 C
  9. Here we go again with the usual 'red herring' about no forecaster. In about 8 years of using these charts every single day I have, at most, felt that the weekend was somewhat different from either side of it, on perhaps 4 or 5 occasions. So forget lack of a forecaster. All it shows is a development, as a forecaster, I would expect, based on the previous 2 outputs. of course it may be wrong but I doubt it being far out when we compare the actual 500 mb charts over the period it is forecasting for.
  10. Anyone of a nervous disposition had best not look at the NOAA 6-10 recently issued!
  11. I am sure S will reply but my take on his comment is that he meant that there is no strong theoretical grounding, and UK senior forecasters I would assume would know this, not that they have a lack of same?
  12. what models, back in 1994-5, sat piccs and synoptic obs if we were lucky!
  13. picking up on what phil posts above, he has summed up the UK prospects pretty well in my view. I wrote this in my daily check on what the anomaly charts are depicting. And by Sat 15 July all 3 have +ve heights and ridging w of uk into trough just e of uk, so another change in emphasis; about the only thing not sown recently, say past 7-10 days, as an active Atlantic flow The fact that at 500mb the usually reliable and less prone to the often large variations in the synoptic models does suggest to me that some heat and sun and some rain or showers/storms alternating through the next couple of weeks is probably the quick overview of the weather much of the UK will get. It is also likely that southern areas of the UK will see more of any heat and any storms with a more changeable regime at times for the NW of the UK. links to 500 mb anomaly charts http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  14. Dry, mostly cloud but brief sunny intervals, a low of 13.6 C