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johnholmes last won the day on November 30 2018

johnholmes had the most liked content!

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Interests
    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. Ditto here reef, 18.8 C reached in my sheltered back garden, tea and cake outside for the first time this year, probably back to early/mid November, almost no wind either although breezier as usual at the airport 3 miles away.
  2. The warmest day in my back garden since mid November, 18.8 C and very little wind either. The airport, some 3 miles away showing winds up to 20 mph at times with temperatures reaching 17.5 C
  3. It does begin to look, from the synoptic models, that some kind of Pm airflow is going to develop beyond about 6-7 days. The anomaly charts though still do not show a concensus out to day 8-10, see below https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php NOAA is showing nothing like the upper air pattern required for this really. The air, at 500 ,b, is shown to originate from quite well south in the Pacific for northern Scotland. Nor does the 8-14 show much change. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html The EC version does show a more Pm westerly type flow with quite cold air for northern Scotland. Also some indication that heights may be rising in the Greenland area. The GFS version does not though, although I find over the years I have compiled these charts that the EC is more often closer to what we get than the GFS. However the proviso has always been that all 3 need to be suggesting about the same pattern before any reliability can be placed on them. I'll come back to this, on here, in 3 days time!
  4. But as you remark Paul, it is one run. Did the same set of charts show similar yesterday once beyond say t+144?
  5. Dry, mild with variable cloud and the sun just appearing, a low of 9.2 C
  6. Tragic news of a the avalanche above Crans Montana. It happened across an official piste, almost unheard of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47297445
  7. Dry now after slight rain a short time ago, and rain last evening and overnight, 2.6 mm, glimpses of the sun and a low of 7.0 C
  8. Tuesday 19th feb Ec-gfs has actually linked both ridges across the pole since the above, noaa not quite but all 3 look pretty similar in uk/Europe area with quite strong atlantic beneath major trough there So quite mild and dry looks the main feature, temporary spells of rain chiefly for nw’ern areas, ? record T values in places. No sign at all on the charts below of any real cold 6-10 nor on noaa 8-14 outlook charts https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  9. Dry with a fair amount of Sc cloud, current low is 5.7 C
  10. Dry with patchy upper cloud and a low of 6.4 C
  11. The 4th consecutive day with 14 C+, mostly sunny but a bit of a breeze at times, still a beautiful day.
  12. Dry with clear skies other than bits of Ci and Contrails, current low is 6.3 C
  13. Another glorious day, just 0.1 C below that for yesterday, but the 3rd consecutive day with a max of/over 14.5C, about the April Max