johnholmes

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About johnholmes

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Interests
    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. dry and bright with a lot of upper cloud, a few sunny spells, a low of 10.8 C
  2. GFS and have the ex hurricane in about the same area by 120h, close by the Faroes, depth 980 maybe 975 mb with UK, EC has it further north. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html sorry my pc playing up and will not open Net Wx version
  3. Blue sky, no wind and a low of 7.4C, my lowest since 27 May this year
  4. Looking at the possible development for the ex hurricane I would expect that it will tend to deepen again as it gets into the jet flow. How much will depend on its position within the jet. As Nick F shows above if it does come in that position then it will deepen. Its track is again up to how it interacts with the jet, indeed how the jst develops is not yet clear with the 00z and 06z runs showing how much difference there could be. Best estimate this far oft for its track is somewhere between the Faroes and the north of Scotland. Probably near enough to NW and N Scotland for severe gale force gusts at least. Interesting to see just what does happen to Karl.
  5. One output only. They are switching from Upper ridge being in control to more in the way of, either a westerly flow or the trough idea. So nothing in stone at all in my view just yet. Below are the 3 main anomly outputs I use, the morning issue from EC-GFS and below that NOAA. I collect/check these every 24 hours and there is not enough total consistency across all 3 to give a confident 6-10 day assessment other than there is neither any signal to a cold outburst of any duration nor a heat spell. But judge for yourselves with the two links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php The 8-14 day chart keeps the idea of a broadly westerly flow but still with a small 'signal' for some +ve height anomaly WSW of the UK. On top of all this we have the probability of the latest Hurricane getting into the mix within the 4-6 day time scale so even less confidence in just what the upper flow, let alone that at the surface, may be post 6 days.
  6. Cloudy, dry now but slight rain or a shower recently, a low of 13.5C currently
  7. The second quote is the ECMWF-GFS output from this morning? The overall trend does seem to be some kind of ridging veering the flow at 500mb to be north of west into the UK. That does not necessarily mean a NW flow at the surface, if that is what you meant? All 3 output centres have been reasonably consistent over the past few days but with some variations and of course the ever present risk of a Tropical Storm/Hurricane getting into the N Atlantic to upset things.
  8. Very slight rain around 0300 then thick fog and sky obscured with a low of 9.4C
  9. awful day here, outbreaks of rain and/or drizzle much of the day, barely saw the sun until just before sunset, rain=3.2 mm, max 15.5 C
  10. Cloudy, dry after rain earlier, 1.4 mm since midnight and 2.6 mm yesterday; a low of 11.3C near midnight, now on 12.7 C
  11. Keep it going Matt, nicely presented for experienced and less so is how I see your postings-thanks It could be even more read come the 'silly season'-which we all know is getting closer.
  12. Cloudy with ocnl light rain after slight rain overnight, a low of 14.3C with 0.6 mm of rain
  13. autumn

    3C at Arboyne according to Wx Online and 1C there on the ground
  14. Dry and partly cloudy start with a low of 8.4C, soon sunny, still is with no cloud and T=22.6C now with very little breeze
  15. Cloudy, dry with a low of 12.6C