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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. The change in the upper air pattern from ridging being dominant to troughing taking over is now well underway. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  2. Cloudy, dry after 1.0 mm rain since midnight, a low of 10.5 C
  3. Dry with a lot of cloud and very mild with a 'low' of 13.6 C
  4. One has only to look at the 240h ))z outputs from ECMWF and GFS to see the mayhem a tropical storm/Hurricane causes with the models! https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/model-comparison
  5. Even the 500 mb charts, well EC-GFS, have a marked change but NOAA is just as it was 24 hours previously. Until it also changes then I will stick with the NOAA version of the upper air in the next 6-10 days. That said the 8-14 has shown quite a change from the last 2-3 days. Perhaps the upper air is going to show a different pattern from that predicted for the last 4-5 days. Certainly at this time of the year the enormous amounts of energy and moisture that tropical storms/hurricanes inject into the north Atlantic plays havoc with all weather models of varying lengths of forecast time. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
  6. Dry mostly sunny but with patchy Ci, coldish with a low of 5.8 C
  7. I'm afraid my vocabulary is not good enough to make a realistic comment on that video. Horrific, nature at its deadliest is all I can think of.
  8. Good grief are we going to have this kind of comment for the next 6-7 months, 16 days in advance and you are chatting about what comes after? For those new to this, with all respect to the poster, ignore these kind of comments if you value your sanity.
  9. Sry and mostly sunny apart from patchy thin Ci, cooler than last two mornings with a low of 8.0 C
  10. Latest ENSO out https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
  11. Yes most but not all do have central heating. However that needs power to make it work. Not 100% certain that the electricity supply would cope with a 62-63 winter or a 47 one. Also the UK infrastructure is totally different from those winters. We all rely on transport bringing our food and other needs to our own area. Again I do wonder how a 47 or 62-63 winter would be dealt with for roads, rail, air. Yes I am old enough to have strong memories of both those winters.
  12. Wed 11 Sept Ec-gfs Both continue to show (3-4th day I think) ridging from iberia area into uk with troughing either side;fairly similar shape and positions Noaa is fairly similar although eastern trough is not really showing. The 8-14 gives a similar pattern. Upshot would be for a fairly settled spell of weather for most areas; perhaps a nw-se split with the far nw more changeable than other areas. How much sun and temperature levels will come with the synoptic outputs but the GEFS ensembles give an idea, at least, for the next 6 days with an indication of surface pressure remaining around 1020 mb, at least for the SE. As good a guide as any when they show consistency. Beyond about 20/21 September then too much scatter to take much notice.Equally they indicate little in the way of rain for the SE in the extended period. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  13. Dry after 0.8 mm of rain overnight, partly cloudy, mild with a low of 12.2C
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