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johnholmes

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johnholmes last won the day on November 30

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
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  1. johnholmes

    Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

    Ed we can all read without the colours and large bold print=thank you! sorry my mistake, should read everything rather than bits!
  2. Thick fog rolled in before 0800, sky obscured, it lasted until a bit before noon, with blue skies following, T up to 6 C
  3. Dry with fairly small amounts of cloud, patchy ground frost with a low of 0.7 C
  4. Winter highs, especially if they are centred ENE-NE of the UK are and always have been very difficult to predict when they will break down. Remember that the longer they are there the colder, usually, the air becomes. Basic physics explains it all, cold air is dense, frontal zones have 'warm' air involved and thus tend to slide up the cold boundary. Sometimes they drop rain but often they drop snow, the so called 'battle-ground' situations. At times the cold pushes the warmer air back west or south west. This is the scene we have during this week. Hence the uncertainty in the models and thus in the forecasts. Looking at the upper air predictions (500 mb anomaly charts), then even at that height there is uncertainty, sometimes suggesting the Atlantic will dominate, other times a kind of status quo. Overall they seem to suggest high latitude blocking and beneath this a fairly mobile Pm type westerly. links below for the latest http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php The NOAA output is less seemingly committed to the EC-GFS versions below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html It may suggest overall that a fair number of you are going have to manage with not much sleep day or night as you disect every frame of every output!
  5. Dry with half cover of cloud, there was more at dawn with a low of 3.2 C
  6. Dry with sky almost clear now after rain earlier,1.0 mm after midnight, low currently on 5.8 C
  7. 'primed' after day 10', says it all. Honestly try checking like for like at those time scales it will be rather more consistent , honestly!
  8. Almost comforting to discover that the Swiss Met service get forecasts wrong. Supposed to be snowing heavily in the village this weekend, the latest shows it is going to rain! And just now it has updated again, more to snow than rain!
  9. Cloudy with slight rain, 3.4 mm since midnight, temperature still falling now down to 8.8 C, the lowest at 0700 was 9.0 C
  10. Cloudy, slight rain, 3.4 mm since midnight, temperature falling since 0700, now down to 8.8 C
  11. Not only are the synoptic 6 or 12 hour models swopping from run to run. The anomaly charts are not showing any real solid consistency, 2-3 days with charts suggesting an upper flow pattern, then a change, see links below. I suggest that the NOAA 6-10 with its large +ve heights and ridging over N Norway is unlikely to show on the next 6-10. Already no sign of it on its 8-14 version. The Atlantic, in some form, looks the most likely to me amid all the differing outputs from any source. Probably more Polar than Tropical in terms of weather type. Windy at times as well as surface features deepen as they run across the Atlantic. Beyond 14 days, not my area so I leave to others. Do not take much notice of the synoptic 6 and 12 hour outputs much further than 144 hours at the moment, and again as I mentioned earlier try comparing like with like at that time scale, perhaps down to 120 hours?
  12. In the crazy up and down world of chasing cold, not always but quite often, beyond 144h, do any of you compare like with like at these times scales? So 00z with 00z for 24 hours nearer T+00 etc? It will give a more genuine pattern of how a particular model is developing a particular pattern than comparing each run with the last 06 to 00 etc-honest. Once down to 144h then, yes, the latest data is more important at decreasing time scales. Try it and see how it works over the next few weeks. I remain convinced that the idea of a Scandinavian block was never really likely. At least initially. The more likely event from a mobile Atlantic would be pressure rises behind a travelling low, possibly linking to the Azores semi permanent ridge, and further back warm air advection out of northern Canada helping a build of heights in the Greenland area. Just my take on things.
  13. Cloudy, dry with a low of 8.6 C, 14.4. mm of rain yesterday
  14. The weekend looks like the first large snowfall for the Jungfrau region according to the Swiss Met Office, around 75 mm of ppn being predicted at village level for Wengen, heaven knows what that equates to in snow depth, with temperatures, again at village level, roughly 4,000 ft, not above 3C from early Saturday. link type 3823 wengen https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/home.html?tab=overview&date=6days
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