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johnholmes

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johnholmes last won the day on February 25 2017

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    Male
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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Interests
    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. A frosty rather cloudy start, dry, a low of -4.9 C, the third lowest this winter
  2. This is the predicted skew-t for Doncaster on 27 th to fit the chart shown; tops generally to about 18,000 ft https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=060a79f6cf9d87937488f22e2618cc98 No not a ramp. Kids stuff being forecast really 1 week perhaps 10 days. Yes I vaguely remember 1947 and only too well 1962-63. 3-4 days may be fun beyond that come on spring, please.
  3. Little sign of spring on the latest NOAA 50 mb ideas http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
  4. Re the tracing the isobars back. If they originate from the Med then they will bring less cold, even milder surface air. However, that air will be brought over what may well be a snow covered countryside in Europe so that again would modify it from the Med. But when it reaches the UK it would be nothing like as cold as the air from northern Europe. That is the surface air or no more than the lowest 3-5000ft. Air above it would mostly remain with its Med characteristics. Hope that makes sense. Best you pm me if that is available to you to save diverting comments on the model thread from this post. thanks
  5. Met Office loses BBC contract

    This is an answer to a comment in the moan thread about BBC forecasts Not sure I understand what you are saying there, sorry Forecasts come from Meteogroup, how much if any human intervention before it gets to the BBC forecaster I do not know. The warnings are issued to the BBC by Met O Exeter. Which is why I suggest two sources using different data sources. A recipe at some stage for a 'cock-up', excuse the word! Anyway it is best to carry on this in the media area I think?
  6. Will post my reply in the media area re BBC as it has already been hidden by mods as being in the wrong thread.
  7. Not sure I understand what you are saying there, sorry Forecasts come from Meteogroup, how much if any human intervention before it gets to the BBC forecaster I do not know. The warnings are issued to the BBC by Met O Exeter. Which is why I suggest two sources using different data sources. A recipe at some stage for a 'cock-up', excuse the word! Anyway it is best to carry on this in the media area I think?
  8. Unless I am mistaken there is no major threat over the weekend! To add to that, BBC now only get warnings from UK Met, I suspect this anomaly is going to be fairly evident at times, both in the near future and when BBC have differing data from that UK Met use. Who would be a weather presenter in these situations, not an easy job.
  9. Dry, foggy with white frost and a low of -2.6C, blue sky with Contrails visible but not at airport
  10. In my view it does not. However, you may wish to test my comment by checking how oftensay, in the next 3 months, ppn charts at the same range verify. I have no actual data, but I would suggest about a 20% of it occurring to some degree.
  11. If you or anyone believes that at the time scale shown then you must have fairies at the bottom of your garden. Ludicrous to have belief in that happening. To any newcomers ignore such posts.
  12. Quite right Chris, thanks for your note to me. Any ppn charts summer or winter showing amounts/where/when are almost always wrong at time scales beyond 72 hours, sometimes even less. Rain is hard enough to get right, time/place/amount. Snow has at least 8 other variables in the mix. Forget trying to work out when it will snow for your, or any other, area, other than a general idea will there be ppn until 1-2 days before. The models will change the 3 dimensional structure of the atmosphere at least as much as they change the overall pattern. Yesterday the 12z for Doncaster (using Extra for the skew-t output) showed convection off the N Sea at I thin from 120-144h+ up to 12,000 ft. The 00z has none. Which is right, who knows. No point in getting wound up about individual runs. We know it is going to get much colder, it looks like last at least 7-10 days. Snow, yes for some and who/when/where is too far out to have other than a very general idea. Eastern+central areas as the flow develops from the east. perhaps SW and some southern areas IF the Atlantic tries to move in. Best I can do for you and anyone else reading this.
  13. And of course it is one run that you seem to be getting het up about. Was the 12 z yesterday suggesting this for instance? If you are expecting/hoping for a clear and consistent picture on ppn from any model at 120+ hours you will be disappointed on 9 out of 10 occasions. I'll add to that, even dow to T+24
  14. Dry with fairly cloudy conditions, a low of 4.3 C
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