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About johnholmes

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. Looking at the anomaly charts the EC-GFS version continues to change emphasis between ridging having more effect and troughing. Indeed this morning the EC version has much as the chart above suggests posted by sb. NOAA on the other hand has, at least over the last two days, stayed with the idea of ridging being the most important player for the surface weather. In all my detailed checking over the years of these 3 anomaly charts, and at this time of the year, I cannot recall any such lengthy period with so much variance between hem. Even the NOAA outputs have been far from steady. No doubt much of it is due to the input from several tropical storms/hurricanes. Possibly also some kind of basic difference in the overall northern hemisphere upper air pattern as that which is giving such an unusually prolonged spell of blocking at 60N + in the main. Just why we have this feature this year I have no idea. Anyone out there with positive theories about this?
  2. A shower around 0500 (according to the radar) gave 0.4 mm, dry now with some sunshine at times with quite a lot of CuSc around, a low of 5.8C
  3. A fairly cloudy dawn start with even a few spots of rain, all cleared away with plenty of sun now and a few small Cu clouds, a low of 5.6C, the lowest for a week.
  4. Dry, mostly cloudy, a low of 7.2C
  5. thanks for the title. I am willing to bet IF a 47 or 62-63 winter in intensity and length occurred most of you wishing for it would be sick of it by the end. But no harm in each of you fantasising, makes fun reading. Maybe I will change my name and photo to what you suggest!
  6. Unable to copy and paste the picc which Carinthian has shown in the model thread, if you read this C (Paul) please drop it in here. The depth and photo are impressive as is the forecast. Only a light covering in the area of my interest=Jungfrau region
  7. Dry and the area of CuSc is clearing with the sun out, a low of 9.1 C
  8. Dry and bright with glimpses of the sun through CuSc, a low of 9.8 C
  9. This is the actual link to the Met O output
  10. I see as winter approaches we are getting unnecessary comments at one another. Why do we have to have this in winter folks? Yes disagree but keep the personal digs out can we PLEASE? From a very personal view point it would be good practice to use the model thread to discuss say out to T240 hours rather than using any model to suggest what may or may not happen 3 weeks or even longer ahead. I suspect IF this could be kept to then the minor spats already showing no doubt escalating as we get into winter causing the mods ever more work MIGHT be avoided. To me the outlook is far from clear post 5-6 days ahead. When the 500mb anomaly charts (gawd here he goes again) are unable to string more than 1 sometimes 2 charts in similarity then postulating beyond 15 days is likely to lead to much nashing of teeth. But of course it is only my view so have a go at me if you wish. 500 mb links below these are reasonably consistent but not totally over the past 5-6 days Much less consistency here although the EC output is less variable than the GFS version.
  11. Slight rain and cloudy with a low of 8.1C before the cloud came in, 0.8 mm so far
  12. Dry, bit of a breeze, just a few patches of Sc and Ci with contrails now, gave a lovely orange-yellow sunrise, a low of 9.3C, milder than recently
  13. Faily bright start at sun up but soon clouded over, rain began 0930, a low of 5.9 C
  14. The models continue to grapple with post tropical storms/hurricanes. This is mirrored in the normally less volatile anomaly charts. They remain inconsistent as they too try to work out where to place the main troughs and ridges. links below It will be a while I suspect before a more obvious pattern emerges.This is in the 6-14 day time frame not any further. In my view, shoot me down if you wish, November ideas and beyond should be in another thread! What happens in October has little or no bearing on the winter. Attempts to link data over a short time scale to suggest something could happen have little statistical support. They could have if similar data over such short time periods were found in the past 100 years and they led to a particular weather pattern through the winter. Just my view of course.
  15. Dry with variable cloud amounts, mostly high level, a low of 5.9C