johnholmes

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johnholmes last won the day on February 25

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About johnholmes

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
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  1. It was a cloudy dry start after some rain earlier, the sun breaking through at times now; a low of 7.8 C; 0.8 mm rain since midnight
  2. The above post from Nick is well supported by the 500 mb anomaly charts I inferred yesterday. They have not been consistent which is why I have hesitated to post them about a week ago. Latterly though they are coming to a more reasonable concensus to the ridging developing in the upper air pattern to the north west of the UK. See the links below for how they show this in the past 24 hours. NOAA 6-10 link and the 8-14 is very similar, hence my comment 24 hours ago that it may be a spell of colder weather say 5-10 days or so. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and the ECMWF-GFS output this morning now supporting this view, with regard to the ridging positioning.. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php On both sets of charts the actual height of the contour immediately south of the UK looks to be about 552 DM so not desperately cold for early March at height and with a very long sea track. Remember though these are 'average' charts and individual charts over a 24-35 even 58 hours could well be from a more NW area and thus colder. One thing it does not look like being a 'warm' 2 weeks which is what some of us would prefer!
  3. Cloudy but dry after rain overnight, 5.0 mm, a low of 5.8 C
  4. Looking more likely for some kind of blocking Iceland towards Greenland on the 500 mb anomaly charts, regardless of the variations of the synoptic outputs. Will post the links tomorrow morning. Period 6-10 days from now, possibly 5 days or 120 h for it to start showing. Possible for 5-10 days duration as a first estimate looking at how they have moved over the past few days. Not my cup of tea so it s not a biased cold view. I would prefer a warm spring!
  5. Dry with patchy Sc and a low currently at 1.6 C, no sign of much ground frost
  6. I did work there for 12 months, loved it
  7. Cloudy with rain, mostly light at the moment, not windy, a low of 7.5C, rainfall since midnight= 5.2 mm
  8. Met show it as an open wave about 46/47N 29-30W at 12z, central pressure a bit below 1020 mb
  9. hard to say Jo but coastal areas if it corresponds to high water; and the Mersey tends to funnel winds if around 250-280 with the tide in. Never did work out what the mechanics were on this. The high ground east of Manchester could also be in line for additionally strong gusts. But we could say that for areas north of Manchester as well. Areas to the lee of the Peak and Pennines may also be more prone to high gusts but with such an active and fast moving system this effect may not be too pronounced. It does look pretty unpleasant for the Amber area Met have issued, but you will perhaps be able to tap into their latest thoughts?
  10. high and might=comic Pit, you post the most negative comments about just about anything on here. If I feel they are in the wrong then I post as such, plenty of evidence over the years about that. Nope don't use smilies pal, me age you see, approaching 80 and some things are beyond me!
  11. Have you ever had to do something similar Pit? I can assure you trying to juggle umpteen balls in the air and get them all down correctly is far from easy. Might help to be a bit less critical!
  12. Dry with a patch of Sc and about 6/8 of Ci, a low of 8.4 C, and no wind, but by 0845 this is now picking up
  13. Rather disappointing that the obsession over cold and snow excludes some fascinating weather over the next 72 hours. This is the deepening low, not yet even formed. It is due to begin to develop in the main upper trough in mid Atlantic during tomorrow. Initially on the right hand side of the developing jet stream; the trough becomes diffluent and thus the surface feature deepens quite rapidly as it transfers across the jet to the left exit area. It is a classic wave development into a major storm, even being given its own name under the system brought in a year or two ago. It certainly has the potential to cause disruption with the winds. Snow on higher level routes on its northern flank also along with the gale or sever gale force winds. No major rainfall problems though, I would imagine, other than local surface flooding as the low does travel quite swiftly. Its actual track and depth will be interesting to watch,well it will to me. No charts but just refer to the GFS output on Net Wx, look at the 500 mb and msl chart and compare it with the chart for 300 mb to see what I have mentioned above. Just back and read 62-63's post, thanks for the comments, not time tonight, and I had not realised there was a dedicated thread either, mods please transfer if you feel it appropriate
  14. Dry with patchy Ci and a low of 5.9 C
  15. Got to 15.2 C here, highest since 8 December 2016, if there had been no breeze it would have felt really warm