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johnholmes

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johnholmes last won the day on December 24 2019

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
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  1. Ovecast with N Sea ST, very humid/muggy with the loest temperature 16.4 C, that is seven consecutive nights like this, the lowest 14.6 C, and the highest 17.6 C
  2. It is also a fact that we all have tendency to be either glass half full or glass half empty in our atttude to the weather!
  3. Sunny with very little patchy Sc and Ci, muggy again with a low of 14.0 Cup to 16.2 C now
  4. Well a glimpse or two of the sun early afternoon but only less than 3/8 of FCu from low ST in the last hour or so, disappointing but the warning was on the Watnall 00Z ascent with some 60 mb of cloud to burn off.
  5. Looking at that ascent there seems to be about 60 mb of ST to shift, and to complicate matters there also seems cloud above it. Not seen an infra red sat picc if it confirms this. But this sat link for infra red (needed to show middle and high level clouds) suggests there is none! Satellitt: Europa – Yr WWW.YR.NO Værvarsel for 9,3 millioner steder i verden! Looking a bit closer and the Ac shown on the ascent could have been the cloud seen exiting the bottom right? So fingers crossed, for those of us in the east, there is no cloud above the ST and visual sat piccs do suggest the ST is thinning already. The sun is out at Leicester on the live cricket Leic V Derby
  6. Sunday update 9th July Ec-gfs and ec has the atlantic trough further east into the uk with a low over the uk; gfs has an area of +ve heights where it had none before, from just e of Greenland over the uk and ne, with a noticeable trough w of and another over se uk and france. So neither is consistent Noaa shows less _ve heights and somewhat further east than the previous evening; the trough out of and s of Greenland is now shown less sharp and somewhat further east, and the slack flow into the uk is even more slack, in fact there is none other than a fairly slack one off the atlantic for the far nw. Overall with charts showing changes as outlined then the anomaly charts give no clear guidance for 6-10 days time as of this morning. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html The 8-14 suggests a fairly benign Atlantic flow
  7. To rty and answer wb and mb Well of course the overall air movement is west to east at any level. It is the ridges and troughs that govern the type of weather we experience. So the pattern of the contours is what gives a clue to what the 500 mb pattern may be 6-10 or 8-14 days ahead. This in turn can give solid clues as to the surface weather in the same periods. As we all know the weather is an extremely complex beast. Even after following it for over 60 years 38 of them as a professional I learn things if not every day then most times I log on to the weather models or read peer reviewed articles about various aspects of meteorology, and also from folk on Net Weather. Going back to the comment from mb about the anomalies shown. They, even more than the contour lines, need very very careful use. Remember they are showing anomalies over what the average contour height is in any one place at any one time. They can be helpful but, I'm not knocking anyone for trying to make use of these charts, far from it I welcome this, but they do need a lot of experience to use them constructively. The anomaly mb mentions is around 150 DM and was sufficient for me to make comment about it. It was also very different from the previous several days shown by NOAA and consistency is something that is also needed in these charts, not much different from the synoptic outputs. Last evening is the first such chart so no definite knowledge that this could be a change. Helped though by EC also suggesting some moderate height rises in a similar area. I've perhaps not explained things very well but am happy to chat via pm rather than clutter the thread up if either of you wish to do this. regards John
  8. All 3 show an overall pattern in the contours that has a mainly westerly flow in the broad scale?
  9. A couple of days ago I very nearly commented on what, to me, seemed a mismatch of the forecast and the Met O Fax charts. But then BBC TV is based on Meteo outputs, which, I think, are a mix of EC and GFS?
  10. Yes it was a clearly marked trough on the 06Z Fax chart and fitted what happened over some parts. Odd that the lunch time BBC Met trained forecaster made no mention of this. Perhaps the senior man laid down the instruction. It does happen.
  11. Gawd a 'quick' skim through suggests it is a very complex paper. Interesting that they suggest more than one parameter, (if I'm reading it correctly).
  12. To try and move the discussion to the weather outlook, the 500 mb anomaly charts are not on the same page, well not all 3 of them anyway. Noaa interestingly shows +ve ehights, 150 DM, so a reasonable value centred to the WNW of the UK. Overall there is still some degree of concencus for the UK trough, shall I call it this (?), down to Iberia. Anyway have a look at the 3 charts and decide yourselves how the 6-10 day surface weather may pan out. charts following http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html The 8-14 Noaa, as is often the case, smooths most of this out to show a general westerly flow from what it shows as the main trough way out west. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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