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About johnholmes

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. The anomaly charts show the first SLIGHT signal for 500mb height rises S and SW of the UK. Nothing to indicate yet any major pattern change but who knows? Away now until next Tuesday so be interesting to see if these are increased or dropped! So enjoy the weather whatever turns up in the next few days.
  2. Cloudy, dry now after some rain earlier (0.8 mm), a low of 16.4C so another muggy night
  3. The heat wave just receding, for many parts of England and Wales, was not well predicted in my view regardless of which model type one used. I openly admit to seeing no sign of several days of heat, let alone storms, using the 6-10 day anomaly charts. An odd day here and there was certainly to be expected with the flow being predicted but not what happened. Also one poster suggested the probability of anywhere exceeding 30C was beginning to look unlikely. So to have anyone suggesting that another spell of several days heat is unlikely before we descend into more autumnal weather is short sighted in my view. Nothing is showing in the anomaly charts so for 14 days or so no more than an odd day here and there, and most likely in the SE 1/4 of the UK but who knows, I certainly do not pretend that I do. Please don't think this is a dig at anyone it is not, it is just a post to suggest another spell of heat is certainly possible.
  4. cloudy and dry with a low of 12.7C, the lowest since 15th July with the max yesterday the lowest since 13th.
  5. highest so far today is 20.6C, which is currently the lowest since the 13th with a high of 20.7C, a lot of CuSc much of the time and a slight breeze, so much more pleasant feeling, at least to me anyway!
  6. Dry, warm and mainly sunny with patches of Ci, a low of 14.3C
  7. Dry and warm overnight again, sunny at times through layers of Ci with patchy Ac beneath, a low of 14.7C
  8. Just had a quick look at 16-18th and first glance, along with the daily charts I run when at home and nothing as I say at first glance would have said heat over 5+ days, one perhaps? I will do a pdf on it rather than clutter up the current model comments-thanks again.
  9. Many thanks MTB, yes it is consistency that generally matters, I will have a look when I get time. re the record T=no beaten into second place with 34.8C 22/08/15
  10. thanks TM and Pit, it is something that occurs on hot days from mid spring to early autumn; usually it does not matter as the temperature goes on rising anyway, as it has today before the Cu developed with the odd spot of rain a bit since. Re the highest=not quite that remains the 34.8C 22/08/15.(posted in the MOD thread)
  11. Been away for this period of heat for many, topped out at 34.5C here which may be my record in almost 20 years data, will check. What interests me, forgive mods for asking for data of old, has anyone got links or copies of NOAA 6-10 day charts in this period please? For sure to me looking at the data on 12th July I would certainly not have predicted what happened in that 6-10 day time frame. Can anyone help please?
  12. warm and mostly sunny, some Ci about, a low of 14.9C and already showing 22.1C, bit suspect I think?
  13. Providing you state where you are checking for then I see nothing wrong in choosing a central location, you chose Birmingham. To start doing, as has been suggested, will make it even more time consuming and complex. If you can show charts for the time you are checking then folk can do their own work for the area most interesting to them? I would stick with an overall assessment much as you have already done, that is unless you find you have a lot of time. You questioned if folk would be interested, I would have thought a lot would be very interested. No doubt you will get negative comments when you show something not hoped for but you will have to live with that.
  14. What a very good idea. So much better to do this type of research than try to use ones' memory. I have not had time yet to have a closer look but IF you can find time to do it for the 12z as well?. Even more to ask if you could do this routinely then it would be a big help in checking outputs at T+144, a lot to ask I know. Over the winter I can imagine it being a huge help in putting some factual evidence forward to try and counter the hype we see so much more of in winter. Thank you again.
  15. A clear blue sky with a low of 10.4C