johnholmes

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About johnholmes

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    just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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    weather, hiking, skiing, golf, gardening
    Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own

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  1. Another humid night with a low of 15.7C and almost clear blue skies at the moment
  2. you are showing your cold bias mate, the phrase was 'according to this one run' You are, in my view, being a bit OTT in your assessment using Camborne, only my view though. Just what may happen over the Friday into next Monday is going to give all of us lots of interest and differing emphasis from run to run on all the models.
  3. Dry and mostly sunny apart from bits of Ci and Contrails, humid with the low only 17.4C
  4. Dry at the moment but cloudy after a wet night, 8.4mm since midnight and 5.2 mm yesterday, muggy again with a low of 15.9C
  5. It started fairly cloudy with showers but has now changed to just small amounts smallish and plenty of sunshine, a low of 14.9C with 0.6 mm overnight after 1.0 mm yesterday
  6. without wanting to clutter up the model thread the link below gives you the Met O link to modelling and some of the research that goes into trying to improve things. Headache making very quickly! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/numerical-models No idea about ECMWF or GFS but I am sure if anyone wishes to delve then GFS at least will give similar information on how the US treat modelling.
  7. Cloudy dry and breezy with a low of 13.2C
  8. In terms of what the models 'do'. Beyond obvious differences in how different models are set up with the hugely complex formulae they use no model has predispositions to any outcome, be it extreme or average. They are all bound by the same thermodynamic equations with the initial data. That data can differ which may seem odd. However, before each run on each model the model itself has a programme that is devised to try and give the best possible initial set of data, if that makes sense. It might be an idea for all of us to either read or re-read Met Office information on how their model treats data and if it is available for the same thing with GFS and ECMWF. Highly complex but some folk might understand it, I did once but it is a bit beyond my old brain these days. In terms of which model may be nearer the mark at time scales that fit the anomaly charts. Then whichever model fits the predicted upper air pattern on the anomaly charts nearest is most likely to have the nearest idea and thus to have the best chance of getting the bottom 18,000 ft correct! That is IF the 3 main anomaly charts are pretty much the same for the 6-10 day period AND the synoptic models cope correctly with the bottom 500 mb of the atmosphere. Not easy as the hugely difficult factor of moisture becomes more and more important in this bottom 500 mb.
  9. Cloudy, dry with a low of 13.1C
  10. from Tamara The synoptic response to further falling angular momentum as reflected by Phase 1 GWO would be the de-amplifying of heights over NW Europe and mean that the amplified ridge in the western Atlantic becomes the main player further east and invites (relatively) much cooler air from the west or north west and quite possibly less settled in general too. However, as mentioned in the last post, much can interfere with these processes whichever way, not least hurricane development and trajectory beginning well away in the tropical southern Atlantic that can never be modelled reliably at any range. I think the above 2 paragraphs are pretty important as to whether much of the UK gets a late summer heat spell or a cooler flow from N of West. To me I would back the latter option at the moment, I stress at the moent. The anomaly charts I use, taking us out almost to the end of August are below. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html They do not show a huge amount of similarity in how the major troughs/ridges are aligned. NOAA below, and it has, over the last 2 days, very slightly increased the +ve signal in the western Atlantic as well as showing just a slight indication of ridging in the same area. Of course all it needs is one of these, link below to get into the North Atlantic proper and all best (sorry forecasts will be off). Interesting trying to decide just how the BH weather will turn out for most of us. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php And just for another slant the latest Met O 6-15 day outlook. To me they appear to be trending by BH weekend to a NW-SE split with the changeable weather extending SE in that period? I may have misinterpreted it though? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast apologies to the team for putting an actual forecast in but I hope I have entered enough model comment to let folk see the Met O output in model context?
  11. Dry and mostly cloudy with a low of 12.0C
  12. Dry and mostly cloudy with occasional glimpses of the sun, mainly Sc cloud, a low of 10.1C
  13. This comment in the post above by Tamara is very valid, and probably so for a good few weeks to come We have the wildcard of seasonal hurricane development within an environment of an enhanced sub tropical jet flow and continued tropical convection signal in the Pacific. That is plenty enough to ponder over and discourage any sweeping generalisations on detail for the next 10 days, let alone the rest of the month Whenever a Tropical Storm or Hurricane get into the Atlantic then every model, short or longer term struggles to cope with the enormous amounts of moisture and energy they put into the northern hemisphere area. Forecast acuracy at any length becomes almost woeful at times. But it does make for interesting model watching whichever model type any of us spend most time with. For the anomaly charts then when this happens I just take a break from trying to predict 6-14 days ahead!
  14. clear skies other than bits of Ci and Contrail, cooler than the previous night at 8.8C
  15. sunny apart from bits of Ci and contrails, coolest night for a while with a low of 9.1C