Paceyboy

Lets hope UKMO is on the money. Potential for up 30c temps encompassing the midlands and not just the south east for a few days not just Friday. The maximum potential for extent of heat seems to be to Thursday 13th all output considered. Breakdown to lower pressure and cooler temps would not seem to fit in with the 6-10 day and 10-14 day anomaly charts.

Im not doubting that the European and Uk models get it right, every model has its day. However, when it comes to the crunch in a scenario where small changes are crucial ones and dictate the direction of travel, GFS leads the way. I am not trolling and am not bringing this thread down. I love the input from those with the knowledge and their analysis however there is distinct appetite to ignore the realistic outcome and ramp up the prospects. I have been following the models and this forum since 2007 and see promising situations fall flat time and time again, with the euros being lauded and other models discounted. I am of an optimistic outlook with things but to go from a heatwave to one day of hot weather north of Banbury, takes the pee!

A collapse of potential, typified by the spoiler from GFS shows again that it is top model. You can have your ECM/UKMO combo all you like but when GFS spots the crucial changes it shows its pedigree. Outside of the south east it is back to average for Saturday although potentially very warm again first half of next week. Weve gone from a high pressure 1020 - 1025mb in the perfect position and orientation just to the east and modelling a week of high 20s low 30s in much of central and south uk to blink and you miss it, again. The rest of August will be trash just like models are after 144 hours.

31.7c down garden and 30c on the patio. Taking into account microclimate bias i would wager at least 29c here in Tamworth, Staffordshire. Much warmer than forecast and thus potentially different in reality to what high res models were showing. 5 oktas cloud cover currently would say also - a fair amount of convection

Havent got a weather station however i have an electric thermometer positioned in the shade down the garden here and is reading 30.1c in Tamworth, Staffordshire. Even accounting for warmer bias of perhaps 2c microclimate of garden it is much warmer than forecast and feels as hot as hottest point yesterday. Thermo is shaded by a material gazebo but its not underneath it. Storm game changer? For those further north - i currently have odd towering cumulus/cumulonimbus to the south

Yes. One of things that has raised my eyebrows are the thicknesses/geopotential heights coming out of N.Africa and into Spain at around 10 days on both the gfs and ecm 00z runs! 28c 850s for Seville are probably not record breaking for there however that heat could be tapped into if a building high pressure aligns favourably for the UK and would make this spell look like a bit of hot soup with a red hot carvery on offer instead!

GFS has said no to the popular outcome sought after in winter (cold) many times. We all say or think come on GFS you are looking silly now just give up, it wont come off as shown, we will get the cold. Maybe GFS being stoic this time is the same. Or of course, murphys law suggests that because we want the hot outcome it will be wrong this time. When we want an easterly in Winter though we would want a trough to drop south through the country, no? If this GFS was happening right now we would have azores scandi link up and would have lost the first bite of the cherry/ first oppurtunity!

Again like my earlier post people not really looking at the broad spectrum outputs to see that certain operationals are the only ones shown cold unsettled whereas more muggy unsettled may be the reality (low pressure bringing drift of above average airmass from the east) NB. My preference is for dry hot weather however if we must have an unsettled spell it shouldnt have to be bone chilling northeasterlies does my head in!

Surprised by the lack of comments this morning regarding the unsettled period coming up and the seemingly widespread acceptance of a cold spell (by June standards). For me there is quite a bit of uncertainty creeping in for Weds/Thurs onwards. Some runs whether operational or ensembles across the model suite are pointing to a continuation of warmer airmass but unsettled. Quite a noteworthy alternative to a cold unsettled northerely. Whatever happens we appear to be heading for at least a few days of showers or longer spells of rain. It may be much colder than of late or quite muggy, pick your poison!

11 perhaps

Anyone else livid that this cloud ia over us at the moment!? Saw this modelled by almost all high res models last night so no surprise. Makes me laugh, we are inland, and we must get the most spoiling cloud when the coasts are clear!!

The negativity in this thread is more than justified. Im not sure many of us in here really get on board in the hunt for snow and cold for a week or two chase, only to be rewarded with a hard frost. Its like looking forward to going out to a nice restaurant and being served a ready meal with tinned food, despite the money you paid where you have invested in the experience; just like we invest our time looking for cold weather. The high amplitude phase 8 mjo is our last hope in all honesty. End of the month/early March most likely response... hopefully.

As it stands so far this winter here in south Staffordshire i have not had lying snow. Thats not even an average winter. Tediously poor, outrageous considering the SSW and certain background signals. I also see the MJO index means absolutely nothing for our weather. I know there are no guarantees with good teleconnections but it is notable for the utter failure. What else is at play here folks? The colder weather shown in the latter stages of the GFS and somewhat the ECM is virtually standard output at around 300h plus range for this time of year. Soon it will be March and this output will turn into mild and dry continental influence. I sure hope that if the SSW does not yield cold, it then produces a summer like last years. More intense heat preferred, though. We have until mid march to see bitter cold, as per last year, if we are still here in late Feb and the blocked and cold outlook is showing at 300h plus - forget winter- look forward to continental influence in summer ie drier/warmer.

Thank you for all the knowledgeable input to this thread on this event so far. More patience needed but when significant changes appear in the models it will be at day 5-6.

If ever there was a model run that demonstrates to me that the SSW event is now beginning to show its influence on the trop modelling, its pertubation 20 on 12z GEFS. Shannon Entropy in full swing in that run. There are so many different patterns going through the motions its as if a child has used all the different colour crayons in a drawing and has drawn every random pattern imaginable! When models are all over the place like this then something major is afoot as per previous notable weather events.

We should hope for a settled warm August with some more rainfall. It would be nice to have a decent August for once but doesnt need to be record breaking for lack of rainfall or heat. We may well come to miss the lovely weather we have had. I and probably others have a feeling that if this current pattern holds for many more months we will have to endure a severe winter (not sure what the projections are for Autumn/Winter yet). Thing is it has been the type of summer where a warm, settled but not especially hot airmass has resided over the UK at the time of maximum solar output and hence consistent mid to high 20s day after day. It doesnt technically have to be an extremely cold airmass to create a severe winter in the UK at the right time over late Novemeber to late January. So if we do experience patterns similar to this summer in the form of a continental influence, we could be in trouble with regard to very low temperatures this winter. Not good for farming with the extremes of seasons or the economical aspect for people everyday lives - food prices, energy bills, dangerous roads

I dont know about anyone else but id have much preferred a longer period of deep cold convective weather on a brisk easterley than it to be all over by saturday with a blizzard. I think for this we would require at least a 300 mile shift of fridays low south. Disappointing we could have been seeing ice days from wednesday through sunday. And yes i wanted the best for this spell as it just does not come around often.

I think after 4 or 5 days of deep cold and the channel low blizzard even the die hard fans will have had enough. Serious cold and snow showing from that sunday through to the friday. Will most likely look different by 1st weekend it March, we may be looking at a longer period of cold with retrogression.

GFS 12z ensembles shows operational is one of the milder members for that warm sector for Thursdays band. Mean as 850s of -2/3c for the midlands. And saturdays band actually.

I dont agree. After wednesday it may not continue but sunday to wednesday has trended colder. We will just have to see however upgrades *appear* to be the trend.

The trend is towards colder though Chevron. We have gone from seemingly nothing to at least a 4 day cold spell over 36 hours of modelling.

MattStoke I would not worry as Stoke is in a fantastic place here - bit of high ground in NW midlands. The reason for the potency is not just uppers it is the thicknesses, source of air and cold through the other layers to 500mb. Have you seen some of the dewpoints projected! *currently modelled* Circa -2c max in the day down to Wiltshire over about 4 or 5 days! 850s are slightly higher than the Dec snow showers spell but this time all others factors seem to favour snow to counter the perhaps not so spectacular 850s.

So any modelled Pm blast shows -4 /5c 850s! No snow in that for the vast majority of the population. Waste of anticipation unless you are on a hill north of Manchester. Waste of time and certainly miserable days ahead. Watch the postive teleconnection musings become watered down as we close in on end of Jan. We really need to see a SSW so that we are not chasing the pot of gold until March.

Re Mr Hammond and time: Are we talking about creating dinosaurs or the potential for a cold spell?

Over the last 24 hours or so we have seen constant strengthening of the modelled Scandinavian high , especially in the euros. Ultimately I am encouraged by the timescale at which this is occurring - 120 hrs onwards. As this gets even nearer into the more reliable timeframes i think a significant spell of cold weather will materialise. It has the feel of a classic build up to a synoptic pattern that is quite so rare - the familiar story of its development. It differs from previous(poor) attempts since 2013 in that more robust heights over the scandi region are continually being modelled. 850 temps really only need a day or so of modelled upgrades to become much more noteworthy, it has happened. The failed easterly of Feb 2012 was an example of incredible promise then let down. I would not like to see modelled -10c to -15c modelled only to be let down. As long as things keep trending positiveley tomorrow then i think we will be surprised by what may start to show regarding depth of cold. Finally: ECM 12z De Bilt ensembles really starting to show agreement on the type of frigid weather we are looking for.