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Posts posted by kumquat
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lets....not ...forget...the...snow...cut...off...date....
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OK - I'll start!
"It looks further North than progged!"
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There will be other bands and filaments of ppn off the SW low. Notwithstanding it going too far south, I think there'll be some interest for the south coast up to the M4 (so yeah SOUTH of the M4)
Separately, Cheshire gap streamers and even into Shropshire I can see some trough action happening right into the Midlands. Don't think this will be as dry as a lot of posters seem to think it will be...
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Please can we get this as a headline for the next Winter Snow Chase:
"Just b4? I rip through the eps throws like a hungry man going through a bin!!!"
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7 minutes ago, Don said:
Strange how the people responding to my post happen to be in more favourable locations for snow next week?!
I think you'll see some surprise developments coming in from the NW.
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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Even if you knew it only meant snow for mainly Scotland and zero for Gloucestershire?
Yep - plenty of potential in that no matter what the current NWP models are showing. All sorts of things can crop up in 96 hours with low T850's covering the whole country (incl. Eire / N.Ire)
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If you were to tell me back in October we'd be seeing charts like this mid-January at T96, I'd bite your hand off.
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10 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
How large we talking
About 150 miles north I'd say. Paris to Brussels kind of distance which brings it back to the far south coast.
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Looking forward to the cold dry weather that is progged up until next weekend. Plenty of little features will pop-up to give snow to lucky places prone to the north west especially up north, Scotland and Northern Ireland / Eire. Also anything sticking out from the East coast anywhere down. All of those NW facing coasts might do OK , Cheshire Gap Streamers and the odd dangler into Pembrokeshire and out the other side into Exmoor and south west peninsulars. Wishbone and troughs. Fun times might pop-up. Also think the northern extent of ppn from the SW low could come increasingly north as a wraparound from N France/ Belgium and hit Kent and the South East. Not ruling out a pasting into the far South coast and moving north more than progged into higher up South West into Cotswolds and as far as the Midlands This is my Pub Run and I'm sticking to it. Covering as many areas as possible and even a little bit into Oxon and Leics.
And of course when NickSussex gets off the plane.
Good luck all!
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All looks OK to me. Snowy breakdown where a large swathe of the country could see bucketloads of snow and the far reaches of FI on GFS 00z show heights building in Scandi, retrogressing back to Greeny out at the end, continuing the drama we all so love
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4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
Have a look at my post on page 234
Wow! Great post! Serves me right for skipping right to the end of the thread when I log in. Nice to see somebody keeping an eye on these modelling developments..
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What happened to that AI model that was touted about a month or so ago (maybe before, I probably just haven't kept up in here)? It seemed to be getting decent accuracy. I'll go google it but I think it was showing mslp at least.
Mogreps keep looking decent and the general outlook is pretty damn favourable and counter to the usual muck. Interesting times ahead.
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22 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Morning All, ready for a decent soaking, floods, blocked roads, power outages, yes, I thought you were. So here it is at the moment.
Think I'll go out the buckets out they need filling (!), anyway lets get on. The overnight low, well down in single digits was 3.1°C at: 08:20, showing with clear skies and no easterly the air is fairly cool. Currently 7.4°C, RH96% and no air movement at the moment.
From Above
On Golden sands, all is calm
Just hoping it pivots away as progged before it gets up here!
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Thanks for all the input peeps. Happy New Year all. All to play for in Jan. ECM 144 is a start!
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20 hours ago, The Enforcer said:
@Mapantz I know you're a bit of a weather station guru - would you mind taking a look at this please?
Thanks,
TE
I'd also be interested in any opinions. Looking to spend around £150 - £200.
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Holy Moly! The sun's out!
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Lol if it walks like a Bartlett and talks like a Bartlett.... just a j/k
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33 minutes ago, Spah1 said:Dry and cool from mid next week - I'd take it. Pieces coming into place for a decent Christmas period, heights into Greenland with PV in tatters.
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Heavier ppn about to hit me. Expecting rain. Temp 1.2C, DP now +0.8C so not much hope.
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1 minute ago, Big Gally said:
Heavy snow in Glasgow
Looks like a nice feed from the West!
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1 hour ago, Crackerjack said:
You called Matt ?
CrackerJack! How's yer frozen cabbages
Maybe we'll get a few flakes tomorrow night?
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Stuff goes under, stuff hits us, stuff goes over ( a bit ) - lots of cold stuff comes back.
Happy Christmas xxx
Love,
The Pub Run.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by kumquat
Yep 18Z shows a good outlook in this respect from 192 onwards as the last part of the vortex forced into our direction shreds off south into Iberia - some rain for them and the start of some higher pressure for us. Possibly going into the next couple of weeks cooling from the east and then warming again from the SW - but please let us have some sun and not just the grey skies of late. (NW coast Africa/ out to Azores SSTs not withstanding)