-
Posts
2,047 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by kumquat
-
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
kumquat replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep 18Z shows a good outlook in this respect from 192 onwards as the last part of the vortex forced into our direction shreds off south into Iberia - some rain for them and the start of some higher pressure for us. Possibly going into the next couple of weeks cooling from the east and then warming again from the SW - but please let us have some sun and not just the grey skies of late. (NW coast Africa/ out to Azores SSTs not withstanding) -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
kumquat replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
lets....not ...forget...the...snow...cut...off...date.... -
There will be other bands and filaments of ppn off the SW low. Notwithstanding it going too far south, I think there'll be some interest for the south coast up to the M4 (so yeah SOUTH of the M4) Separately, Cheshire gap streamers and even into Shropshire I can see some trough action happening right into the Midlands. Don't think this will be as dry as a lot of posters seem to think it will be...
-
Looking forward to the cold dry weather that is progged up until next weekend. Plenty of little features will pop-up to give snow to lucky places prone to the north west especially up north, Scotland and Northern Ireland / Eire. Also anything sticking out from the East coast anywhere down. All of those NW facing coasts might do OK , Cheshire Gap Streamers and the odd dangler into Pembrokeshire and out the other side into Exmoor and south west peninsulars. Wishbone and troughs. Fun times might pop-up. Also think the northern extent of ppn from the SW low could come increasingly north as a wraparound from N France/ Belgium and hit Kent and the South East. Not ruling out a pasting into the far South coast and moving north more than progged into higher up South West into Cotswolds and as far as the Midlands This is my Pub Run and I'm sticking to it. Covering as many areas as possible and even a little bit into Oxon and Leics. And of course when NickSussex gets off the plane. Good luck all!
-
All looks OK to me. Snowy breakdown where a large swathe of the country could see bucketloads of snow and the far reaches of FI on GFS 00z show heights building in Scandi, retrogressing back to Greeny out at the end, continuing the drama we all so love
-
Wow! Great post! Serves me right for skipping right to the end of the thread when I log in. Nice to see somebody keeping an eye on these modelling developments..
-
What happened to that AI model that was touted about a month or so ago (maybe before, I probably just haven't kept up in here)? It seemed to be getting decent accuracy. I'll go google it but I think it was showing mslp at least. Mogreps keep looking decent and the general outlook is pretty damn favourable and counter to the usual muck. Interesting times ahead.
-
Thanks for all the input peeps. Happy New Year all. All to play for in Jan. ECM 144 is a start!
-
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
kumquat replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol if it walks like a Bartlett and talks like a Bartlett.... just a j/k -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
kumquat replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dry and cool from mid next week - I'd take it. Pieces coming into place for a decent Christmas period, heights into Greenland with PV in tatters. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
kumquat replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks like a nice feed from the West! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
kumquat replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
CrackerJack! How's yer frozen cabbages Maybe we'll get a few flakes tomorrow night? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
kumquat replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stuff goes under, stuff hits us, stuff goes over ( a bit ) - lots of cold stuff comes back. Happy Christmas xxx Love, The Pub Run.