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About kumquat

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    Winterbourne, South Glos
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    Astronomy, weather, engineering, geekery, sci-fi, cooking, Internet Marketing, life extension and all round bad-ass science.

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  1. Agreed Si. Loving the dry, bright skies and relative warmth now, but don't mistake this for spring. The way the PV is behaving could take us for fools.
  2. Hi sunnijim, think I remember you from met monkey days! I always look to these times of poor model outlook as slack, col-like periods. Things are about to kick off. Net migration north of warmth and no notable mid-latitude surface cold in Europe makes me think this year will be a late one. Maybe a dud one for cold but still time.
  3. Fair points but I do wonder whether you would have thrown it in if last week's event had been 150 miles further north. Still all to play for, for a couple of weeks plus model lead time. The weather patterns are a bit bizarre this season but I think our Winter has a sting the tail.
  4. Still think they will flip. You don't get all that warm air pushing into the Pole with no payback. It might take us a full revolution of the PFJ wavefront (to feb 25th) but I think we'll hit the paydirt on the next go-around. Atlantic/UK blocking won't do us any favours with cold air aloft until cross-pole flow around 240, but the surface cold under high pressure might help to season the ground. Can't see us hitting spring without a MAJOR cold incursion beforehand.
  5. kumquat

    Veil of Cirrostratus

    Great pic, knocker. Looking forward to being down there in March.
  6. As it's the Hunt For Cold... Been watching this for the last couple of days - Marginality at its finest for the South But maybe some interest for Scotland and the North and higher ground.
  7. Broad agreement on the 12Z runs at 144 hrs of high pressure ridging Northeast and low pressure moving into the Southeast Most lead to an Easterly of some description. Uppers not particularly cold as modelled, but that can change Some modelling transferring heights to the Northwest after this period. Quite a positive outlook for cold towards the last third of Feb, I'd say. ECM UKMO GFS FV3
  8. The current zonal pattern on the NWP looks bizarre. Those smooth-bottomed vortex incursions look suspect. I'm not having it. Take, for example, the UKMO output @ 144 That kind of slackness in thickness through the atmosphere, would be exploited. Except the Azores has weakened. Something is afoot. SSW effects might now be throwing the calculations out. (those Runge Kutta methods need an update)
  9. 13cm here. some got 20+ in Mendips, out Bath way and Somerset (add in further East overnight and today Wilts, Berks, Hamp.) Glos, Cotswolds, S Wales got into Northern Extent as did Ox) Further in town (Bris) probs a bit less but 10 to 12 cm widely. Cornwall, Devon got high moors action and unexpected sea level snow (include Dorset) - I saw Hayle and Newquay recording heavy snow - Main road over Bodmin got out of hand 100s put up overnight!. It was one of those nights where nowcasting was King and the models were "erratic". And it kept going all day today. Multiple, stalled and fully circulatory mesoscale features breaking away and feeding back into Occlusions and associated Upper Low fronts caused havoc (several times over the period)
  10. Haha - hey beka, if you do find out all of the above, please let the Met Office know, I think they're as bamboozled as the rest of us! Hope you get a good dumping next time and thanks for the laughs
  11. Just went out to smell my snow. Can confirm - it's not as good as when airborne.
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