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kumquat

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About kumquat

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    Winterbourne, South Glos
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    Astronomy, weather, engineering, geekery, sci-fi, cooking, Internet Marketing, life extension and all round bad-ass science.

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  1. I think you're spot on. However, I'm holidaying down near Plymouth next week and I'm pleased to see that I'll be in the right place at the right time at least for a couple of days midweek. The Azores wants to pay a meagre visit to the South West and I will tap into that as a beach/BBQ day, possibly... albeit a tad windy but pleasant in the sunshine. Tues 3rd ECM UKMO GFS Pub Run Most of next week seems relatively dry in between the weekends (a bit imby) and away from the far NW (sorry about that ppl in NW Eire, NI, NW Wales and Scotland) but with showers and decent early autumnal sunshine interspersed. I will raise a (first of the summer wine) glass to you all and see you post equinox. With Dorian looking like it will go nastily into Florida / Georgia I also wish our international visitors and friends well.
  2. Something building around Shepton Mallet last couple of frames. Could come into Bristol area soon, Hope it builds up more! Edit: Snap! Andy ^
  3. Watchet is taking a pasting with more to come! http://www.camsecure.co.uk/watchet webcam.html
  4. Agreed Si. Loving the dry, bright skies and relative warmth now, but don't mistake this for spring. The way the PV is behaving could take us for fools.
  5. Our SW/Central event will be forgotten.... like tears in rain.....
  6. Hi sunnijim, think I remember you from met monkey days! I always look to these times of poor model outlook as slack, col-like periods. Things are about to kick off. Net migration north of warmth and no notable mid-latitude surface cold in Europe makes me think this year will be a late one. Maybe a dud one for cold but still time.
  7. Fair points but I do wonder whether you would have thrown it in if last week's event had been 150 miles further north. Still all to play for, for a couple of weeks plus model lead time. The weather patterns are a bit bizarre this season but I think our Winter has a sting the tail.
  8. Still think they will flip. You don't get all that warm air pushing into the Pole with no payback. It might take us a full revolution of the PFJ wavefront (to feb 25th) but I think we'll hit the paydirt on the next go-around. Atlantic/UK blocking won't do us any favours with cold air aloft until cross-pole flow around 240, but the surface cold under high pressure might help to season the ground. Can't see us hitting spring without a MAJOR cold incursion beforehand.
  9. kumquat

    Veil of Cirrostratus

    Great pic, knocker. Looking forward to being down there in March.
  10. As it's the Hunt For Cold... Been watching this for the last couple of days - Marginality at its finest for the South But maybe some interest for Scotland and the North and higher ground.
  11. Broad agreement on the 12Z runs at 144 hrs of high pressure ridging Northeast and low pressure moving into the Southeast Most lead to an Easterly of some description. Uppers not particularly cold as modelled, but that can change Some modelling transferring heights to the Northwest after this period. Quite a positive outlook for cold towards the last third of Feb, I'd say. ECM UKMO GFS FV3
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