virtualsphere

An excellent read - a well thought out and detailed forecast, thanks for sharing. Quick question: I notice you have both 1981 and 2010 in your Dec analogues which were obviously very cold compared to average. Do you think these are likely to skew the forecast - i.e. if these 2 years were pulled out, would the synoptics be broadly similar or would it affect the likely pattern?

You're right about 2014-15 being rather average for temperature and rainfall, but worth noting 2013-14 and 2015-16 were incredibly wet as well as very mild - the two wettest on record for the UK as a whole and by some considerable margin. I think 2015-16 was drier in England, but here in Wales it was our wettest winter on record since 1910, breaking the record set only a couple of years earlier. December 2012 also felt very wet at the time, I think here it was the wettest since the 1990s. We've not had a winter with below average rainfall since 2011, so I can sympathise with what John Hammond is saying - it definitely feels like we're due a dry one I remember thinking in 2011 or 2012 that we were overdue a stormy, wet winter after quite a few dry ones so these things do seem to come in cycles...

http://fim.noaa.gov/ Not sure how reliable it is, I haven't heard much about it so it would be interesting to get some views from the experts.

Possibly Buchan? http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179#Buchan

5.7C please.

It depends on the type of storm as well. I guess that an elevated MCS with mainly distant CC lightning and continuous heavy rain could well be relaxing although these are few and far between here. We're more prone to thundery hail showers and short sharp pulse storms in autumn and winter off the Atlantic, which usually involve the odd random loud close CG strike followed by heavy hail and sudden gusty winds - certainly can be exciting but not too relaxing

A cooler 9.4C for me please.

@Muffelchen ...here in west Wales we haven't had any thunder this week although we came close on Tuesday - the storms stopped being electrically active just east of us near Swansea. We've had 5 thunder days so far this year which is about average, this compares to the 14 thunder days we had in 2014 which is the most I can remember. So you have had quite a thunder drought in your area even by our standards

15.3C for me please.

Very strange bright orange sky here to accompany the heavy rain which has just started... I've attached a photo but it doesn't really do it justice.

16.1C for me please.

This one by John Gribbin? https://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Weather-Dioxide-Climate-Greenhouse/dp/0140224599/

Surprised its wetter than 2012? Wettest June here since 2012, but 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all relatively dry. A lot drier than 2012 here with about half the rain.

16.8C for me please

Friskney Show: Funnel cloud lifts inflatable slide - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-36511051 Apologies if already seen, couldn't see a link to it in here.

Spoke too soon- the thunder is back!

Never mind Brexit, it's usually hard enough getting European storms to 'Br-entry'! Gone quiet again here now, most of the activity looks to be to my east. If there's anyone north of Swansea it could be worth keeping an eye out.

Thunder here, heavy rain just started.

The video mentioned that the colder water could impede hurricane activity in a pattern that would otherwise likely deliver an active season due to La Nina developing. Effects on UK / NW Europe only mentioned briefly at the end - if the wind patterns continue as normal we're likely to see colder conditions as the wind tracks over the colder sea surface, but there is evidence to suggest the Cold blob could influence wind patterns and actually deliver drier and warmer summers to N Europe. Nothing further in the video as to why this is, or what the evidence is.

Ha ha, if only! I'd probably take it for granted eventually if it was the norm. The fact it is rare makes it all the more enjoyable.

Cracking start to June here, and indeed end to May, with plenty of sunshine, warmth and blue skies. The question is - will it last? June proved to be a great summer month here in both 2010 and 2013, but things quickly went downhill in 2010 while in 2013 we went on to get an even better July. I can understand folks in the eastern half of the country wanting to bring in a SW'ly to warm up conditions over there, but from my perspective the longer the westerlies stay away the better the weather is likely to be here - anything from the east is fine by me at any time of the year, especially after enduring Dec 2015

Dry here at the moment!

Distant lightning / thunder east of here towards Swansea.

Plenty going on this afternoon here in SW Wales. Currently in between towering clouds after the earlier storm. The photo doesn't really do justice to the size of the clouds. As someone else pointed out earlier we didn't really see any clearance of the overnight / morning cloud before the storm, so I wouldn't panic if you've not seen the sun today.

Thunder heard here in Carmarthen. No rain as yet.