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  1. I've been teaching myself data visualisation in Tableau for work, so thought I'd also have a go at plotting some CET data against ENSO / QBO data. Here's a chart showing the mean winter CET for all years since 1951 (on the horizontal axis) and mean ENSO ONI data for the winter (on the vertical axis). The symbols indicate QBO data averaged for the winter months, circles are EQBO, squares are WQBO, filled are stronger values, unfilled are weaker, and an asterisk represents very weak / neutral values. The year shown is for January / February, so '2010' represents winter 2009/10. It's a bit crude as it covers the whole winter and so doesn't indicate (for example) whether a winter is front-loaded or back-loaded for cold, and I could only find the ONI data for ENSO which covers the Nino 3.4 region, so this doesn't indicate the impact of Central or Eastern Pacific La Nina / Modoki El Nino for example. A couple of interesting observations from the chart: (1) aside from 2009-10 which is a bit of an outlier, it seems that coldest winters tend to be clustered closer to ENSO neutral, and while it doesn't seem to make much difference whether it is El Nino or La Nina, some of the warmest winters have been associated with the strongest events: e.g. 2015/16 and 1988/89. (2) the QBO doesn't seem to make a great deal of difference to the outcome, with both EQBO and WQBO of varying magnitudes at either end of the scale, at least when averaged over the winter here. I'm still learning so it would be interesting to know if there are any other datasets that would be better to use, or for example whether using previous autumn or OND / NDJ values for ENSO / QBO would be more helpful if there is likely to be a lag in the effect on UK weather.
  2. I remember Autumn 2000 as being very wet, I was learning to drive at the time and had to negotiate standing water on several occasions... interestingly I can see this thread was originally created in 2013 and I believe winter 2013/14 and possibly winter 2015/16 were just as wet if not wetter. Autumn seems to have become drier after 2000 while winter seems to be getting wetter, especially since 2011. Last Autumn was quite wet here, especially October, but nowhere near 2000 or both those winters.
  3. I was interested in @SqueakheartLW's post about weak WQBO last month, here's the 500Mb anomaly for those years which suggests heights over Scandi which interestingly ties in with @jules216's thoughts above re ENSO. And taking the two years which didn't feature cold CET anomalies, 1973/4 and 1992/3 we seem to end up with @jules216's example of the Sceuro block.
  4. September does seem to have been more settled recently - in the last decade our average rainfall in Sept is 140mm compared to 180mm in both August in October. Interestingly September is also the only month apart from April I've recorded no thunder days since I started keeping track in 2012. The Met Office rainfall series shows that Sept has been wetter in the past, we're currently going through a dry September period but not as dry as the early 1900s 1959 appears to have set the benchmark for September sunshine and despite some nice weather in recent years, nothing really comes close. Personally I remember nice weather in Sept 2002 & 2014, a rather wet one last year and a particularly wet period when my son was born in 2008. Also the heat in 2011, but more so for the 1st October when I visited the beach and it was 20C by 10am! Otherwise most recent Septembers here seem rather benign but not dry / warm enough to be memorable.
  5. Well I had high hopes at the start of the month, but despite the impressive heat at the beginning of August we're still above average for rainfall and below average for sunshine here - the hunt for a good August continues... Still we did get a very impressive lightning show at the start of the month and with 'only' 201mm of rain last month here it was drier than last August by 34mm, and slightly drier than June 2020 as well! Wettest summer overall here since 2012.
  6. MetO app shows new cells forming to the east of the Gloucester storm and moving east / south east towards S Wales then eventually to the east of Swansea area before moving offshore around 9-10pm. It's not been very accurate today but it has consistently shown something similar.
  7. Storms seem to have cleared and sky now brightening up again. Some interesting cloud formations on the back edge.
  8. Very dark for lunchtime here in SW Wales. Cars now going past with headlights on. Distant rumbling all morning, nothing overhead as yet but had several downpours. Had a video call with a colleague earlier based 15 miles up the road, loud thunder heard in the background!
  9. There definitely seems to be more regional variation in August during recent years - I had to check my stats after reading your post and my memory of last year being fairly poor in the west seems right, we had 235mm rain and only 9 dry days - for comparison in July 2020 we had 158mm and 13 dry days (and in May 2020 for example, 32mm and 25 dry days). The Met Office anomaly maps back this up - the last 12 Augusts (bar 2011) all show a similar pattern (source https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps) The sunshine maps are more telling: we have to go back to 2005 to see the yellows over our part of the UK in west Wales in August. For every other month between April and October we only have to go back to 2018 to see the yellows... so a dry sunny August has definitely been a rarity here and hopefully this will be the one that bucks the trend!
  10. Could this be due to reduced air traffic in recent months leading to less high level cloud - clearer night skies giving lower minima?
  11. 17.9C and 53mm please - going for the long awaited sunny and fairly dry August this year
  12. At 202mm this has been the wettest June here since 2012, we'd need another 30mm to equal 2012 which isn't looking too likely. We have had 7 dry days so far this June though, which is one more than in 2012.
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