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virtualsphere

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  1. This article is interesting - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782 The research suggests a 0 - 2 year lagged response in late winter (...March 2018? February 2009? but March 2013 doesn't really fit with the pattern) and a 2 - 4 year lagged response in early winter (December 2010?). Perhaps there's a reverse effect with some of the mild zonal winters in the middle of the cycle too, e.g. 2013-14 and Dec 2015 after solar max. The article does say the results should be treated with caution, though, as the data only spans 58 years. This NOAA presentation mentions that early indications of solar cycle 25 suggest it may be as large as the current one (slides 21 - 23): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What Happened to Those Sunspots.pdf
  2. 16.6C and 89mm please.
  3. 17.4C and 70mm please.
  4. Whoops a bit late. 13.5C and 72mm please.
  5. 7.6C and 88mm please.
  6. virtualsphere

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Still all to play for based on these snow depth charts from the higher res models up to 6pm Friday, with quite large differences showing, so don't be too concerned over any individual model / individual run - if you're not expecting much, keep an eye on the radar / window tomorrow and you never know...
  7. virtualsphere

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Sadly I was only 3 in 1982, though my Dad tells me the snow was over my head and he had to carry me on his shoulders Some good video footage of the event here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-42615172
  8. virtualsphere

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Accumulation pattern fairly similar to the Hirlam model posted earlier - perhaps a bit high as those are for tomorrow only - here are the 48 hour accumulations predicted up to Friday lunchtime: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?ech=48&mode=45&map=430 Compared to the Arpege model which has less in the west but more in the east / mid Wales: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=48&mode=45&map=300 Either way, looks like quite an eventful couple of days coming up! Freezing rain is the other thing to look out for, Hirlam shows rain in western parts in the early hours of Friday.
  9. virtualsphere

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    HIRLAM is available to view here: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php Shows perhaps more snow than forecast overnight tonight for central areas of Wales and then more snow towards western parts tomorrow evening and night - so perhaps less of a snow shield here in Carmarthenshire...
  10. Is there still any chance of setting a daily CET record for 28th? When was the last time we set a cold record, was it 2010 or do we have to go back further?
  11. virtualsphere

    Winter 17/18 lowest min temp watch

    Could we get a lower minimum in spring than winter, if it's lower tomorrow night than tonight?
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