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About virtualsphere

  • Birthday 15/06/78

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  1. 16.2C please
  2. It would be a nice change for the dry conditions to continue through the summer and for the correction to take place in early September. We've had some very wet summers (2007, 2008, 2012) and winters (2013/14 and 2015/16) recently, but we usually seem to get at least one decent autumn month. 2014 and 2015 were particularly frustrating wet Augusts followed by dry early autumn weather when the kids were back in school. At least we've had some drier summers since 2013 though.
  3. Difficult one to call but I'll go for a cooler 10.2C.
  4. Nice to top the monthly competition - thought I'd gone way too high but turns out I was slightly on the low side!
  5. March actually finished as quite a wet month here (certainly compared to many recent Marches) - the wettest March in Wales since 2006 (also after a dry winter) and second wettest since 1998. It was also the wettest month since last September and the second wettest month since January 2016, although not a complete washout as some of the intervening months have been quite dry. Looking at this graph, I'm glad I don't remember March 1981!
  6. 9.8C please
  7. 7.8C for me please.
  8. This one still brought the deepest single snowfall I can remember, on 9th Feb. As @I remember Atlantic 252 mentioned the snow had been predicted to turn to rain, but all fell as snow, and we ended up with nearly a foot. My workplace closed early due to the weather but I couldn't get home as the A48 had closed. We had a similar depth of snow in 2010 which accumulated over a couple of weeks, but as a single event I don't think we've had anything like it since January 1982, which I sadly can't remember well as I was only 3. As @CreweCold says, the winter was very memorable for that one event. Sadly it rained on the Saturday and the snow melted fairly rapidly so we never had a chance to go out and enjoy it properly.
  9. 4.9C please
  10. That's an interesting observation - it reminded me of this post from @Catacol I read earlier which suggested that based on MJO forcing we may see an increasing likelihood of high lat blocking into Feb. I'm not sure what the MJO evolution was in Feb '91, could it be a similar evolution to that currently being modelled perhaps?
  11. 6.4C please, I feel it could be a disappointingly warm month but hope I'm wrong!
  12. I completely agree that lying snow has become less frequent, but surely the 1981 - 2010 chart for December would be skewed by the inclusion of both Dec 1981 and 2010 in the data? So it wouldn't really be that realistic to expect that much lying snow in December anyway?
  13. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a better chance at an easterly spell during this winter - this is just a guess, but I've noticed a few notable easterly charts pop up throughout the year with some quite unusual synoptics. In May and June, for example, we had several days of home-grown thunderstorms here in SW Wales due to a convergence zone setup within an easterly / north easterly flow and sea breezes from the SW - this is very unusual and I can't remember it happening before, certainly not in the last 10 years or so. e.g. We had storms on this day: Some other examples: In general, since last winter we've seen some strong blocking anomalies to the NE and quite a muted signal elsewhere: ...which certainly compares to the same period last year, preceding that record warm December: Obviously this isn't a scientific observation and it doesn't mean the setup will occur again during the winter season, especially if the polar vortex strengthens and introduces a greater chance of a zonal flow, but if there are no strong drivers to push the atmosphere into a different state then I wonder if we'll have a greater chance of a continental easterly this season than in recent years? Compare this to 2010, preceding the exceptionally cold December - notable heights over Greenland throughout the April to November period: As a caveat I should point out this doesn't always work - in 2014 a similar anomaly to this year didn't result in an easterly winter. I've just watched Gav's winter forecast (posted by Summer Sun above) and interesting that he's going for a possibility of Scandinavian blocking as well.
  14. A couple of links to some excellent posts by Roger J Smith from the Seasonal Forecast thread a while back which could be relevant to this discussion: Also worth reading the NW winter forecast if you haven't already, with some discussion of solar flux and the impact on UK winter:;sess= The research would seem to indicate that sunspot peaks aren't necessarily a bad thing for colder UK winters, e.g. 1947 - but the descending phase of the cycle seems to have more of a link to a +NAO and therefore a reduced chance of cold for us. I'm sure I've read previously (but can't find the link at present) that increases in solar activity can actually affect the synoptic setup in different ways depending on other background factors such as ENSO / QBO etc., and so while an uptick in solar activity now might change the outlook towards a colder set-up, the same uptick might actually increase the potential for a colder outbreak if other teleconnections are in a different phase.
  15. I wonder if my 5.7 is in with a shout. Hopefully a few downward corrections come into play!