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virtualsphere

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  1. Sorry, forgot to enter the precip contest and can't edit my original post - please can I add 132mm? Ta.
  2. SC25 likely to be slightly weaker than the current cycle - the authors evaluated the predictions previously made using a similar model in 2016 and were happy that observations have been in line with those predicted. They also ran simulations which indicate that the current weak cycle is not isolated but the first in a "modern Gleissburg minimum" (a 90 - 100 year cycle observed in various datasets, including those going back to 450AD) As for further in the future...
  3. virtualsphere

    WEDDING DAY WEATHER

    9th October 2004 - cloudy, but dry at least. Remember it being quite chilly while posing for wedding photos afterwards outside. Looking back on the charts for that period, it could have been quite an interesting one if they'd occurred in the depths of winter!
  4. Interesting prediction for SC25 - behind a paywall at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL078387 but there's a pre-print version here https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.04868 This compares to previous predictions that SC25 would be similar to SC24: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05106 This is another interesting paper on the longer term solar cycle, and predictability of minima: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JA019478
  5. This article is interesting - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782 The research suggests a 0 - 2 year lagged response in late winter (...March 2018? February 2009? but March 2013 doesn't really fit with the pattern) and a 2 - 4 year lagged response in early winter (December 2010?). Perhaps there's a reverse effect with some of the mild zonal winters in the middle of the cycle too, e.g. 2013-14 and Dec 2015 after solar max. The article does say the results should be treated with caution, though, as the data only spans 58 years. This NOAA presentation mentions that early indications of solar cycle 25 suggest it may be as large as the current one (slides 21 - 23): https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What Happened to Those Sunspots.pdf
  6. 16.6C and 89mm please.
  7. 17.4C and 70mm please.
  8. Whoops a bit late. 13.5C and 72mm please.
  9. 7.6C and 88mm please.
  10. virtualsphere

    Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Still all to play for based on these snow depth charts from the higher res models up to 6pm Friday, with quite large differences showing, so don't be too concerned over any individual model / individual run - if you're not expecting much, keep an eye on the radar / window tomorrow and you never know...
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