Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

253 Excellent

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location

Recent Profile Visitors

5,899 profile views
  1. Storm Georgina - Atlantic Storm 7

    Potential squall line nicely illustrated on the MetO forecast rainfall charts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1516730400&zoom=6&lon=-2.65&lat=52.48
  2. The mention of 1932-33 is interesting. Round here that winter is legendary for producing one of the biggest blizzards the area has ever seen. One thing missing from even the recent colder winters has been a severe individual snowfall event (Feb 2007 is actually the biggest in recent memory; we had similar depths in 2010 but this built up over several days). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8209333/Britains-coldest-winters-on-record-in-pictures.html?image=19
  3. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    I'll try 8.8C please, and hope I've gone way too mild!
  4. My memory might be playing tricks on me but I'm fairly sure 2014-15 was wet and stormy here in the west too. It may not have felt as stormy, being book-ended by two of the wettest and stormiest on record, 13/14 and 15/16, but I'm sure it was generally more cyclonic / zonal than anything from around 2008 to 2012. I remember thinking last year was a welcome respite from storms after several years, despite the lack of snow. I'm not expecting anything noteworthy in the way of cold this year but we're probably overdue a winter with a short sharp cold snap or northerly toppler after several very mild ones preceded by a few with more significant cold (eg Mar 2013 / Dec 2010) - seems unusual we haven't seen anything in between the two extremes recently.
  5. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    11.4C please
  6. Brief power cut here - now back on again after 2 or 3 minutes. Winds really picked up over the last couple of hours.
  7. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    1950 is an interesting comparison also. I'm not old enough to remember, but the data shows a warm June and notably wet September. The August CET also identical to 2017 and overall spring and summer rainfall totals are very similar (June appears to have been more anticyclonic despite the similar CET value). October 1950 was warmer than 1992 but was much drier after the wet start to Autumn, but like 1992 it then turned wetter into November. Both 1992 and 1950 featured a colder December than we've been used to recently (1.2C in 1950 and 3.6C in 1992).
  8. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Yes, note the general increase in activity at the end of 2006 (crudely highlighted in the graph below) at a similar point in the cycle to currently. Although the graph doesn't yet include September, it looks like we are still on the descending curve of the cycle towards minimum. To my limited knowledge, even in more active cycles you'd expect to see a greater descent before activity picks up again: This article suggests we saw the first SC25 spot back in December last year, but that the cycles actually overlap over a 4 year period http://www.stce.be/node/359 ..and it's worth noting the comments in this forum which quote the NOAA as announcing the first SC24 spot has appeared back in 2008- before the minimum of 2009/10: https://www.ssca.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5208 Some researchers believe that the next cycle could be more active than the current one, however - e.g. http://www.spaceclimate.fi/SC6/presentations/session2a/Dean_Pesnell_SC6.pdf (slide 13)
  9. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Since the year doesn't end in 5, 6 or 9 I don't think it'll be in contention for the warmest September, so I'll go with a rather average 14.1C please.
  10. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Yes, there was some interesting research mentioned in last year's Netweather winter forecast which showed that the biggest connection between the NAO and solar activity is actually a trend towards +NAO and the declining part of the cycle. Original forecast here with more info: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2016;sess=# Based on the graph, we're still in declining and likely to be until 2019. Winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 both look to have been in the minimum phase, once activity has bottomed out and is very gradually increasing. Interestingly even Feb 2009, the first significant cold spell for many years here, was just after activity had hit rock bottom if I've read the graph correctly. The other fascinating thing about this analysis is that while many associate solar minimum with a greater likelihood of -NAO and the potential for colder UK winter weather, historically it seems both ascending and solar maximum are just as likely to result in -NAO, this just hasn't occurred in maximum for a couple of cycles. The isolated dark blue -NAO in the descending phase of cycle 17 is an interesting exception and seems to correspond with winter 1939-40.
  11. Summer 2017 Discussion

    Yes - it certainly feels like that, and although we don't yet know for certain August will be a washout, the outlook doesn't look promising. Where we have had decent summer weather in recent years it seems to have fallen outside the school holidays. I don't remember this being the case when I was in school (I remember warm sunny spells in the holidays in 1989, 1990, 1991 and 1995) or the weather improving dramatically in September, so I've had a look to see if I was lucky or if this nasty run of late summer weather is a recent trend / unfortunate coincidence. Notice in these graphs the lack of any notably below average rainfall in August since 2003: Recent sunshine average for August is also down: Temperature is generally up, although with nothing notably hot since 2004: Either side of the main school holiday month, after a poor run of Julys for sunshine between 2007 and 2012 we had two very sunny ones in a row in 2013 & 2014: ...and September sunshine seems to have gone the opposite way to August, with an upward trend and 2008 standing out as the only particularly dull September since around 2001: We've actually not had a notably wet September since 2000 - in fact September rainfall has been significantly lower since then with 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1995, 1999 and 2000 all being wetter than anything since the turn of the century. So yes, those kids who've been in school since about 2004 really do seem have been unlucky when it comes to the summer break! The longer term graphs don't show any reason why this trend should continue, though, so hopefully it will even out in the long run... maybe after a wet start August 2017 will buck the trend? Graph source: Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
  12. Summers of 1980 and 1987

    We had a 3 week family holiday travelling around Scotland in August 1987 - I was only 9 at the time but remember parts of the trip well and one thing I can recall is the lack of heat. I remember feeling cold dressed in shorts & t-shirt and have photos in which I'm wearing a large duffle coat! Having said that I don't remember any problems with rain spoiling the trip, we did manage a lot of outdoor activities although being a kid it is possible my parents planned these around any rainy days without my realising. Of course the weather in Scotland doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't a scorchingly hot month in England, Wales or Ireland, but given the recollections of others here I doubt it!