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virtualsphere

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  1. Probably a coincidence but it's interesting how Mar / Apr / May were all set within 5 years of each other between 1775 and 1780, and then June and July were set within one year in 1947 / 1948.
  2. I wonder if it is due to ocean temperatures rising more quickly than land temperatures? Therefore the period more prone to westerly / Atlantic driven conditions would see a greater chance of higher temperatures and April - June, being more prone to continental weather, and continental weather itself being more likely to deliver record highs than in winter, would be less affected?
  3. If I remember the research correctly, I think there may actually be more of a correlation between the descending part of the solar cycle and +NAO periods (bringing a higher chance of milder UK winters) rather than solar minimum reliably bringing -NAO and colder weather, although this has happened at minimum in several of the last few cycles such as 2010, winter 1995/96. So we could think of the period leading up to the cold spell in late Feb / early March 2018 as the milder period associated with the descending cycle and we're now moving out of this into minimum bringing a greater chance of -NAO and therefore potential colder UK synoptics - similar to the milder winters in the descending cycle leading up to the cold spells starting in Feb 2009 last time around. Worth looking at where Dec 2010 and March 2013 sit on the charts Yarmy posted above, which are more in line with the ascending or even max phases of the cycle. You could even argue that last winter's late cold easterly is more towards the end of the descending phase of the cycle and we're now where we were around the end of 2008 or early 2009. If this is the case, there's still more of a chance of colder winter periods over the next few years than we would have seen in the descending period from 2014 to 2018. If I remember correctly I think there were also some -NAO winters associated with solar max periods although we've had more +NAO in recent maxima. Obviously there's also the much colder periods associated with long minima in the past such as the Maunder and Dalton periods, but in terms of variation within individual cycles we're not completely reliant on flatlining to bring colder weather. e.g. early 1979 was the ascending part of cycle 21 and Dec 1981 was around or just after solar max. Frustratingly I don't have the papers to hand so hopefully someone will correct me if I've misremembered though.
  4. Yes, although the next week or so isn't look promising for cold, we've seen how quickly things can change either way - e.g. from a progged deep cold setup never materialising in Dec 2012 or earlier in Jan this year, to the unexpected extension of the cold in Jan 2013 - so not worth writing anything off after day 7 - 10, which still only just takes us past the first week in Feb. The Atlantic systems aren't with us yet and the models could be overestimating the strength and / or longevity of the pattern. We've also seen how areas of low pressure have corrected south on the models closer to verification this season, like the system which brought the snow this week. Worth keeping a watching eye out for changes if you like cold weather I think.
  5. Also worth mentioning we've experienced significantly cold December (2010), January (2010) and March (2013) CETs in recent years, so there's no reason we shouldn't see a cold February either despite the overall warming trend.
  6. Maybe not the wettest summer bit though! I wasn't around in 1956 but it can't have felt much worse than 2012 surely - wouldn't want a repeat of that...
  7. Certainly seems so, though we were spolied with some nice wintry Decembers in the 1990s and 2000s culminating in the rather epic 2010 - so perhaps the disappointing early winters since then are just nature balancing things back out again. Although I enjoy snow at any time, there's something quite magical about wintry weather in the run up to & over Xmas - even if it's just a hard frost followed by a crisp sunny day.
  8. According to this, there have been a few spots already observed from SC25 - http://www.stce.be/news/422/welcome.html The curve in the graph does appear to rise a little quicker than I would have expected given the curve between 2008 and 2010. I'm not sure how accurately drawn the prediction curves are though if you look at the one at in the image at the top of this article: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-24-status-and-solar-cycle-25-upcoming-forecast This article suggests we shouldn't expect to see much cycle 25 activity "before the middle of 2019 at the earliest" http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=2626
  9. Roger, I wondered if you are intending to post an update on your winter LRF? From my novice perspective it seems your timings have been quite accurate (switch from mobile to blocking aroind Xmas) but perhaps the block hasn't set up as far north as you anticipated? If so, does this impact your original forecast for a second cold spell towards the end of January? Any thoughts welcome, always enjoy reading your LRFs.
  10. Anything exceptionally wet and windy - winter 2013/14 the worst, particularly unseasonal weather in the Christmas holidays, and having our chimney blown off the roof on New Year's Day was the last straw. Don't recall much sunshine here either, but in the far west of Wales south-westerlies tend to be dull and showery. Also summers 2008 and 2012 for the incessant rainfall and lack of any sunshine.
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