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virtualsphere

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  1. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    11.4C please
  2. Brief power cut here - now back on again after 2 or 3 minutes. Winds really picked up over the last couple of hours.
  3. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    1950 is an interesting comparison also. I'm not old enough to remember, but the data shows a warm June and notably wet September. The August CET also identical to 2017 and overall spring and summer rainfall totals are very similar (June appears to have been more anticyclonic despite the similar CET value). October 1950 was warmer than 1992 but was much drier after the wet start to Autumn, but like 1992 it then turned wetter into November. Both 1992 and 1950 featured a colder December than we've been used to recently (1.2C in 1950 and 3.6C in 1992).
  4. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Yes, note the general increase in activity at the end of 2006 (crudely highlighted in the graph below) at a similar point in the cycle to currently. Although the graph doesn't yet include September, it looks like we are still on the descending curve of the cycle towards minimum. To my limited knowledge, even in more active cycles you'd expect to see a greater descent before activity picks up again: This article suggests we saw the first SC25 spot back in December last year, but that the cycles actually overlap over a 4 year period http://www.stce.be/node/359 ..and it's worth noting the comments in this forum which quote the NOAA as announcing the first SC24 spot has appeared back in 2008- before the minimum of 2009/10: https://www.ssca.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5208 Some researchers believe that the next cycle could be more active than the current one, however - e.g. http://www.spaceclimate.fi/SC6/presentations/session2a/Dean_Pesnell_SC6.pdf (slide 13)
  5. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Since the year doesn't end in 5, 6 or 9 I don't think it'll be in contention for the warmest September, so I'll go with a rather average 14.1C please.
  6. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    Yes, there was some interesting research mentioned in last year's Netweather winter forecast which showed that the biggest connection between the NAO and solar activity is actually a trend towards +NAO and the declining part of the cycle. Original forecast here with more info: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2016;sess=# Based on the graph, we're still in declining and likely to be until 2019. Winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 both look to have been in the minimum phase, once activity has bottomed out and is very gradually increasing. Interestingly even Feb 2009, the first significant cold spell for many years here, was just after activity had hit rock bottom if I've read the graph correctly. The other fascinating thing about this analysis is that while many associate solar minimum with a greater likelihood of -NAO and the potential for colder UK winter weather, historically it seems both ascending and solar maximum are just as likely to result in -NAO, this just hasn't occurred in maximum for a couple of cycles. The isolated dark blue -NAO in the descending phase of cycle 17 is an interesting exception and seems to correspond with winter 1939-40.
  7. Summer 2017 Discussion

    Yes - it certainly feels like that, and although we don't yet know for certain August will be a washout, the outlook doesn't look promising. Where we have had decent summer weather in recent years it seems to have fallen outside the school holidays. I don't remember this being the case when I was in school (I remember warm sunny spells in the holidays in 1989, 1990, 1991 and 1995) or the weather improving dramatically in September, so I've had a look to see if I was lucky or if this nasty run of late summer weather is a recent trend / unfortunate coincidence. Notice in these graphs the lack of any notably below average rainfall in August since 2003: Recent sunshine average for August is also down: Temperature is generally up, although with nothing notably hot since 2004: Either side of the main school holiday month, after a poor run of Julys for sunshine between 2007 and 2012 we had two very sunny ones in a row in 2013 & 2014: ...and September sunshine seems to have gone the opposite way to August, with an upward trend and 2008 standing out as the only particularly dull September since around 2001: We've actually not had a notably wet September since 2000 - in fact September rainfall has been significantly lower since then with 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1995, 1999 and 2000 all being wetter than anything since the turn of the century. So yes, those kids who've been in school since about 2004 really do seem have been unlucky when it comes to the summer break! The longer term graphs don't show any reason why this trend should continue, though, so hopefully it will even out in the long run... maybe after a wet start August 2017 will buck the trend? Graph source: Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
  8. Summers of 1980 and 1987

    We had a 3 week family holiday travelling around Scotland in August 1987 - I was only 9 at the time but remember parts of the trip well and one thing I can recall is the lack of heat. I remember feeling cold dressed in shorts & t-shirt and have photos in which I'm wearing a large duffle coat! Having said that I don't remember any problems with rain spoiling the trip, we did manage a lot of outdoor activities although being a kid it is possible my parents planned these around any rainy days without my realising. Of course the weather in Scotland doesn't necessarily mean it wasn't a scorchingly hot month in England, Wales or Ireland, but given the recollections of others here I doubt it!
  9. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    17.2C please.
  10. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    16.7C please.
  11. June 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    16.2C please
  12. It would be a nice change for the dry conditions to continue through the summer and for the correction to take place in early September. We've had some very wet summers (2007, 2008, 2012) and winters (2013/14 and 2015/16) recently, but we usually seem to get at least one decent autumn month. 2014 and 2015 were particularly frustrating wet Augusts followed by dry early autumn weather when the kids were back in school. At least we've had some drier summers since 2013 though.
  13. May 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Difficult one to call but I'll go for a cooler 10.2C.
  14. March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Nice to top the monthly competition - thought I'd gone way too high but turns out I was slightly on the low side!
  15. March actually finished as quite a wet month here (certainly compared to many recent Marches) - the wettest March in Wales since 2006 (also after a dry winter) and second wettest since 1998. It was also the wettest month since last September and the second wettest month since January 2016, although not a complete washout as some of the intervening months have been quite dry. Looking at this graph, I'm glad I don't remember March 1981!
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