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BarnetBlizzard

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Everything posted by BarnetBlizzard

  1. BarnetBlizzard
    yeah that’ll do
  2. BarnetBlizzard
    That’s the 0z
  3. BarnetBlizzard
    ECM 6z control looks like a bit of an upgrade
  4. BarnetBlizzard
    GEM Mean though...
  5. BarnetBlizzard
    The GEFS mean isn't actually as good as 6z. GEM Mean on the other hand is brilliant at +162: and at +186... even better:
  6. BarnetBlizzard
    Example of what I was saying earlier
  7. BarnetBlizzard
    Whilst the GFS run looks a bit dodgy with that shortwave, it does show a potential option: If we can get that cut off low to travel ENE and maintain a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, it will accelerate cold uppers from the NE towards us. Not saying its likely, but I've seen it a few times on some runs/ensembles so one to watch. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4996502
  8. BarnetBlizzard
    GEM showing possible solution too. If the low can move ENE before the high pressure disappears/slides away we can get involved with much colder uppers.
  9. BarnetBlizzard
    Whilst the GFS run looks a bit dodgy with that shortwave, it does show a potential option: If we can get that cut off low to travel ENE and maintain a wedge of high pressure around Iceland, it will accelerate cold uppers from the NE towards us. Not saying its likely, but I've seen it a few times on some runs/ensembles so one to watch.
  10. BarnetBlizzard
    I've been viewing the charts every day in winter since 08 and there is an argument for these to be the best (consistently produced) day 10 charts I've seen. I think only Jan 10, Dec 10 and Feb 18 rival these. The fact these are being consistently produced across different models is a very good sign
  11. BarnetBlizzard
    Got it, thanks
  12. BarnetBlizzard
    Apologies If I'm being slow, what does AGW stand for? Something global warming?
  13. BarnetBlizzard
    Thanks! Phase 3 for Jan looks pretty good (taking your point about not being gospel). Some longer range forecasting suggesting a colder shot mid month might coincide with MJO hitting phase 3 around 5th-10th Jan as per some MJO forecasts: Realise I might be clutching at straws here!
  14. BarnetBlizzard
    I always thought Phase 1/2 at amplitude could mean low pressure into Europe and high pressure around Iceland? If correct, this would be decent for UK cold prospects? I might be wrong though, really struggling to find any info about these phases and how they influence UK weather. Lots to say 7/8 are good (for cold) and 3/4 are bad but not much about 1/2. Edit: I did find this:
  15. BarnetBlizzard
    Looks like some cross model agreement for MJO to go Phase 1 and 2 with some amplitude in a couple of weeks. Does anyone know what this might mean for the UK in an El nino winter? Thanks!
  16. BarnetBlizzard
    ECM joining some GEFS members and ICON suggesting this isn't a done deal yet
  17. BarnetBlizzard
    haha Yoda wants nothing more than a full blown Easterly! I'm definitely not saying an Easterly is likely but there are just some small signs that the Scandi high could have more influence on weather in around 8-10 days time then is shown on GFS OP/UKMO.
  18. BarnetBlizzard
    Mean GEFS 12z has more heights into Scandi at at 162h compared to 6z. Some similar to Icon 12z in that respect.
  19. BarnetBlizzard
    Hi mate, do you when thing might become more favorable for us in North london? Cheers
  20. BarnetBlizzard
    Very light snow in north london
  21. BarnetBlizzard
    Yep, GFS 12z still looks good. Something tells me we aren't going to know what's going to happen until its on the radar
  22. BarnetBlizzard
    yeah to be honest, the Icon keeps moving west and east from each run. lets see what the other 12z show
  23. BarnetBlizzard
    quite a big movement south east on the Icon
  24. BarnetBlizzard
    Am i the only one thinking GFS 12z and the ensembles are looking a bit iffy for those further south?
  25. BarnetBlizzard
    I actually think 6z will be an improvement.
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