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BarnetBlizzard

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Everything posted by BarnetBlizzard

  1. bluearmy I'll presume this GEFS member has got it right then
  2. bluearmy Possible the Atlantic jet could fire up and head below the UK into Europe and trap High pressure above us resulting in an Easterly? Or am I living in fantasy land
  3. Not normally this miserable but I think this has been the worst winter I've ever lived through. Never I have seen so many good charts at day 10-15 turn to mild mush once it gets to day 0. I had a 10 min snow shower in January and that was it. A mild winter is easier to take when its expected and predicted but this winter has just drained me. It's the hope that kills you.
  4. nick sussex GEFS mean a slight improvement - more energy disrupting south east. I understand I might be straw clutching...
  5. It would seem more natural for the low pressure to disrupt southeast, high pressure to meet near Iceland and winds to veer from the East as per my badly drawn red arrows But the low pressure is absorbed north west (albeit less so than the 0z)
  6. bluearmy haha! Ok what about Scrussia - how does that do for us?
  7. bluearmy If you were to choose a location for the PV to displace to increase chances of a cold spell for the UK, where would it be?
  8. bluearmy Agreed - I think the chance of a snow event for the South Thurs-Sat is close to 0 now unfortunately. I just want the low to move East/South east of the UK rather than stay to further West/North West as per GFS. It'll help snow/cold chances moving forwards IMO
  9. Low and colder uppers slightly (and I mean slightly) further south on the ECM mean 6z compared to 0z at 72hours.
  10. I think this sums it up well - not sure I've seen a winter with so many good day 13-15 charts. It feels like we've been in with a chance multiple times but the pieces have not quite fallen in place. As you said though, we've still got a couple of tickets remaining - lets see if we can win the raffle right at the end.
  11. This is the mean precip chart at 174h on GFS: I wouldn't give up hope quite yet...
  12. Not a bad start on the ICON - energy disrupting south-east. Can we keep a wedge of higher pressure in the area circled?
  13. True... but it did go very right in a similar set up on one occasion
  14. For us in the UK the GFS 6z mean is a bit of an improvement in comparison to the 0z mean. More energy sliding SE across UK into Europe - the more the better. You can bet if we were still in the 70s and 80s then you'd get more energy disrupted south east as we got closer to T0 - unfortunately it's 2024 and what can go wrong normally does. If i were to look at my glass half full, I'd say we're in with a chance of something exciting in the next 10-12 days.
  15. @Daniel* With MJO moving to phase 7 and a relatively strong vortex, you'd hope this could be a realistic possibility.
  16. I've noticed that wedge of high pressure to our northwest around Iceland being suggested on a few runs. If we can get the wedge there then the low pressure from the Atlantic gets forced south-east and it could bring in easterly winds for a time.
  17. @bluearmy Where can you see the latest MJO forecast early? I keep waiting for this page to update: CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Madden - Julian Oscillation WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV But doesn't normally update till around 2pm
  18. Is it me or have there been some small upgrades to MJO forecasts in last day or two? Edit: Just seen Battleground Snow's post agreeing that there has been some amplification in some forecasts towards phases 6 and 7
  19. Quite a large of the south east did pretty well from December 2022 cold spell - in fact, it was way better here in north London than BFTE 2018 in terms of snow accumulations. also feb 2009 had a Thames streamer which I (think) had the met office giving a red warning for the London area due to snow totals
  20. I'm quite excited by the idea of a scandi high that keeps appearing at the end of GFS runs. The GFS model still has its downside but an upside is sometimes it can detect trends in FI.
  21. Not the most popular models, but JMA and Arpege look decent
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