NorthernRab

Unsettled incursions in the NW of Europe, who'd have thought!

If this was January you'd be raging! Until tomorrow night:

In the spirit of Billy Connolly's mantra "no such thing as bad weather only bad clothing, get yourself a sexy raincoat and live a little", went for for a wee 9k walk this evening and it wasn't too bad really! Don't mind a wet and windy spell from time to time in the summer as it helps everything grow. Haven't been on at all recently but the early part of the week and last week were stunning with a fair few days in the mid twenties and a couple days of 26C with feels like temperatures a couple degrees north of that. I'm optimistic about the coming summer and fairly confused by the dramatics in the model thread with talk of 2012. Then again I'm often confused by that thread so not change there!

Pretty decent for much of Scotland actually, could produce quite a few nice warm days after the cooler uppers are filtered out.

It hasn't happened yet. Many a time we've seen the GFS right where all other models were wrong and this is one set of runs. Simmer, as we say up here

Very unusual for me to cheer the downgrade over a northerly, but there's a significant move away from the potency of any incursion between the 6z and the 12z. 6z 12z

The Highlands and the North East (the Scottish one) quite often do very well in these set-ups, ARPEGE has 28'C for my neck of the woods on both Friday and Saturday so keep an eye on the Highlands and Islands Weather page on Facebook as @MKN says. You used to be able to access the weather stations (of which he has a lot) independently but I think that feature might now be removed.

It's snowing.

It's snowing.

Met Office even going for snow down to sea level across Highland and the NE for a time on Sunday morning with temperatures just above freezing and a feels-like temperature of -4. Then dry with occasional sunny spells and 10C by Monday. GFS seems to corroborate this: A very odd and brief return to winter on the cards!

Don't think I'm alone in the north in saying that I have absolutely zero interest in seeing anything white falling from the sky or anything like -7 temperatures at this time of the year. The garden with all the fruit/vegetable plants and flowers is doing really well after such a beautiful April. Hopefully the 12hz is just going off on one and reverts to the 6hz (pictured below) to conform with the ECM and we see the high collapse over the UK to bring a recovery in temperatures and more warm sunshine.

Scotland had a very frosty November due to the southerly tracking lows with snowfall at times. If we are to return to a period of southerly tracking lows, there's a lot more cold to the north given the time of year.

The past few days were lovely in their own right, frosty and lots of frozen icy surfaces and snow remnants alongside thick freezing fog, very seasonal. Pretty precarious walking conditions in parts of the city but very much the reality of winter. Going by that thread you'd think there was nothing to enjoy about the weather just because we're not in the grips of a big freeze.

Quite heavy snowfall here for a time with a covering, now sleet and very slushy out there. None too bothered as we're not locked into a cold pattern so wouldn't have lasted anyway, but was lovely to see!

Have the Cairngorms shifted 400 miles south without me realising? I'd have thought I'd have noticed. It really wouldn't take much at all for this particular operational run (never mind the ensembles!) to give some significant snowfall for Scotland and even parts of northern England. The "huge" difference between yesterday's operational 12z and today's should be teaching folk a lesson about how knife edge this sort of set up can be and how it could possibly turn more favourable quite quickly.

Oh God it's the first wave of despair on that thread.

And for good measure, strong heights approaching Greenland. All completely just for fun, but the important part is the general pattern for early next week. Anything after is a case of trying to work out vague indications for the macro situation in the longer range.

The jet visiting the Azores here, pretty amazing stuff! And on its way to say hello to Cape Verde soon after.

Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run.

This weather ??

^ Aye, it's -5°C at Tulloch Bridge and it's only 4pm. -10°C tonight certainly seems possible.

We're lucky we even have weather stations. Joking aside, I think there will be something close to this. It'll be somewhere in the Met Office figures as we do get Scotland specific figures. Edit: happy 10,000th post when it comes by the way.

Ice day here with temperatures failing to get above 0°C, very cold overnight and a hard frost which remained throughout the day.

I'm assuming NorthernStrath won't mind me answering but unless he's flitted recently, he's just south of here by about 10 mile or so. I believe he lives in an igloo between Moy and Tomatin.

Cold here at -3'C, think there's a chilly night to come!