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NorthernRab

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NorthernRab last won the day on February 13 2017

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    Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
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    Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.

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  1. Oh my! That's screaming very heavy snow for central Highland. Most of northern Scotland in fact!
  2. A week today - and look what's peering over the North Sea at us! I swear if HC, Northern Strath and I don't get a beautiful north easterly event out of this then I'm going to have to leave this thread and starting hanging out in the model one.
  3. Cold air advection, i.e. cold air in places that it normally isn't (in this context).
  4. Think GFS will still develop a Greenland / Icelandic high of some description, small trigger low (seen forming over the Azores) to encourage warm air up towards Iceland via high pressure but we shall see.
  5. Seems to be up to -3'C above Cape Dorset now?
  6. Would it not be wiser to wait for the ensembles to see the broader picture? Not sure we should be talking about the wheels coming off due to one run?
  7. All very speculative at the moment, but great to see some very potent north easterlies modeled out in stupid territory. @Hairy Celt @Northern Strath @Northernlights Take note, the fabled Moray Firth streamer might be on the cards!
  8. Well I see they have utterly lost their minds on the model thread again.
  9. All white here! Lovely sunny but chilly winter's day
  10. Slightly puzzled by the mood of despair in the model thread this morning considering the next week looks like a polar maritime airmass will dominate and going forward there seems to be clear signals for blocking at high latitudes. Considering the SSW doesn't even occur until early next week and the fact that any downwelling from the stratosphere leading to more favourable tropospheric conditions will take weeks as opposed to days, why on earth are they all complaining that an easterly isn't showing in the medium term? Especially given the fact that NWP is so volatile at the moment! Feeling very positive about the coming month and early March but baffled, as always.
  11. I have indeed. I said that major urban centres could well see snow and disruption (certainly nowhere near feet of snow!) but some might miss out. It's so difficult to tell at this range and the ppn charts are merely illustrative. GFS 06hz Glasgow, Inverness, Stirling, Belfast, perhaps Perth (over 2.5 million people) potentially seeing a spell of snow there. GFS 00hz corroborates GFS 06hz: Northern England and Northern Ireland (again) in the firing line there. Ppn charts at this range are somewhat academic as the closer we get, the more we'll know but certainly I'd say there's potential there. What we do know though is that a NW flow with cold to very cold uppers (for the air direction) is likely from Tuesday. Snowfall to be confirmed but certainly there is the potential for some disruptive (if not exactly record breaking) snow next week.
  12. Large swathes of the UK and Ireland might well see significant snow - the detail can't be pinned down at the this range. Certainly though Scotland (including the cities with a combined urban population in the millions), N.Ireland (Belfast) and parts of Wales and Northern England (again, millions in the urban areas) are in the firing line. I certainly would not call this a fuss over nothing.
  13. Stronger sun / longer days doesn't really become such an issue here until mid March, as you'll discover next week
  14. Is that the distant sound of a certain Masterpiece I hear? GFS 12hz...
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