NorthernRab

Have the Cairngorms shifted 400 miles south without me realising? I'd have thought I'd have noticed. It really wouldn't take much at all for this particular operational run (never mind the ensembles!) to give some significant snowfall for Scotland and even parts of northern England. The "huge" difference between yesterday's operational 12z and today's should be teaching folk a lesson about how knife edge this sort of set up can be and how it could possibly turn more favourable quite quickly.

Oh God it's the first wave of despair on that thread.

And for good measure, strong heights approaching Greenland. All completely just for fun, but the important part is the general pattern for early next week. Anything after is a case of trying to work out vague indications for the macro situation in the longer range.

The jet visiting the Azores here, pretty amazing stuff! And on its way to say hello to Cape Verde soon after.

Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run.

This weather 👁👁

^ Aye, it's -5°C at Tulloch Bridge and it's only 4pm. -10°C tonight certainly seems possible.

We're lucky we even have weather stations. Joking aside, I think there will be something close to this. It'll be somewhere in the Met Office figures as we do get Scotland specific figures. Edit: happy 10,000th post when it comes by the way.

Ice day here with temperatures failing to get above 0°C, very cold overnight and a hard frost which remained throughout the day.

I'm assuming NorthernStrath won't mind me answering but unless he's flitted recently, he's just south of here by about 10 mile or so. I believe he lives in an igloo between Moy and Tomatin.

Cold here at -3'C, think there's a chilly night to come!

Ah yes I see what you mean, sorry. For clarity, it looks like there were around 25 ground frosts with 15 of those being air frosts. Does that make more sense?

Not at all! Do you mean that air frosts include ground frosts?

According to the records 15 air frosts here (or at least nearby here at the airport at sea level) with around 10 ground frosts and a lowest minimum temperature of -10°C. So almost every single day producing a frost - it was a cold one! Struggling to find data for Dalwhinnie, Loch Glascarnoch, Altnaharra and so on though.

Hair ice / frost beard in Inverness this morning link