wysiwyg

Nice to see the old WetNether Region threads up and running and reporting days of endless NO. Hope you're all well - here's hoping for a whiter 14/15 than last year's mess! BR Wysi

Still seeing another big blob of snizzle heading for us on the radar - next 30 minutes or so eta. This event is refusing to lie down and be over!!

Veryveryvery very dark grey ....oh hang on..... Hehe! Yes it was a peachy orange colour here too just before dark

I believe you mate - just couldn't resist the joke

I'll have a pint of whatever you guys are drinking!!!!

I think a lot may depend on how much moisture is left in that.

Always the problem with a Scandinavian high. The NW will always be hovering in the milder side of the cold. We need a good solid Omega block centred over Greenland to really have a chance of snow followed by freezing daytime temps for west of the Pennines. Even then it's reliant on convection so very difficult to forecast in the medium timeframe. EDIT: You beat me to it CC

True. But without that warmer air around there would have been no snow at all!

SE Manchester very unlucky to miss out - I think you suffered the worst of the Pennine precipitation shadow effect

Behave!!!

The system is moving very slowly now and keeps pepping up all over the place. Could be more moderate snowfall anywhere in the region in the next few hours.

To be fair I think it was the BBC that were at fault (not speculating here as to why!). The MET office have been updating their forecasts and warnings all night and through today so far. And in weather terms that was a hard system to call. None of the models got it right in the reliable time frame. A small shift west 50-60 miles made the difference between "spot on" as originally forecast and "way off" as it turned out.

Example of NWx paid radar - 5 minute updates, NMM overlays, 2 hour Hi-res playback, archived back a long way further etc. etc. (please note I'm not receiving any consideration for this plug from NetW, I just think it's a great tool to "see for yourself" exactly what's happening in the here and now with this type of setup! ) Current shot shows today's setup perfectly with the help of the overlays. A low centred over mid wales is dragging warm air up over the cold air to the north on its NE flank. An occluded front (The warm air is floating over the cold air and does not touch the ground) is running roughly through the Scotish borders east to west. As more warm air is pushed into this system it rises over the cold air, the warm air cools with altitude and pressure drop, its moisture condenses out and immediately freezes falling as snow. I suspect this feature is so weak now that the warm and cold air is almost mixed out giving the slight thaw currently being witnessed in some places. The track of this low (where it goes next) will dictate the weather for the next few hours. Latest 06Z GFS has it heading towards the NNW and merging with the larger LP system out to the west of Ireland that is trying to slide towards the SSE.

I think the pepping up to the west that's currently being observed is due to the colder air meeting the slightly warmer air out to the west. Whether it all tracks back west or not will be down to where the current low tracks and if the warmer moister air out west can push back east. Very difficult to forecast from most of the models. Nowcast, radar loop watch and a big dose of Hopecast to see if it does.

Well that was all most unexpected. Finally got some sleep at about 4am. Seems I went just before the heavier stuff arrived. Although when I got up again around 8 it was still coming down nicely. On and off all morning since then. Still a steady but light fall now. Current depth estimate 2.5 inches (6-7cm). There's a slight thaw now - car showing 1C. Most side roads passable with care - main roads clear here. Just shows how random snow events are in this neck of the woods. Best falls in last 10 years or so have all been unforecast until within T-3. Some pics:

Take care driving in it in the morning.

I think it largely boils down to geography. The Pennines to the east, lakes to the N, welsh hills to the S and irish sea to the west. This means that all forecast events are highly modified by the time they reach us apart from when we have a NWly flow of frigidly cold air when the Irish Sea becomes our friend producing convective snowfall that is virtually impossible to forecast. We need the blocking high to be centred over Greenland for that to happen though. As for the current situation - it's coming from a flabby slack low and the modification from the Pennines is difficult to factor into the forecasts meaning that we are seeing more snow than might have been expected from conventional modelling and forecasting.

As expected the pennines are taking the real sting out of that blob to the east but still a chance of a heavier prolonged burst or two further west

Warnings updated too although I'm still not even in the yellow zone. But I too have heavy snow showing at 3am then light snow after that all day

The gap of lighter stuff between the two heavier areas has narrowed a lot in the last 30 mins

Agonisingly close to me as well. Still 30 minutes or so if it makes it here but even if half that intensity gets here then it could dump at least a couple of cms on top of the cm or so already down.

Well as HC has already said it's heading west and intensifying as it does - would be nice if it got here unmodified

Hehe yes - I'm not doing too well on hitting the right quote button tonight - I should've quoted the OP to add to your already good explanation

You'll also need to factor in any surfaces that have been gritted (salted) as this will need 7-8 degrees lower to freeze (i.e. -8 to -10C) will take much longer for snow to accumulate here at the current levels. Heavier falls will settle more quickly on gritted surfaces though.

Nice steady fall here for the last 30 mins or so. 0.5cm covering virtually everywhere that had melted away from last two days. Radars seem to be behaving now. Nice to see Preston and surrounding areas getting some too.