SnowStorm(Jamie)

Not much change in my eyes to the outlook Thursday/Friday's front mostly light and patchy, the ICON may have made more of it last night but the trend is generally lighter stuff with heavier bursts over Pembrokeshire. Saturday looks the most promising as per what ECM/UKV/ICON shows but again very uncertain in relation to rain/snow distribution. Curious if the Met Office will issue any advance warnings today

Yep never been a big fan of easterly's here, it seems like its been a long time since we had a decent cold shot from the north west, especially this time of year it normally delivers. 2009 was probably one of the better easterly's for our location but that was mainly due to an area of low pressure moving north. I think Thurs/Friday's front is going to struggle to make it any further than Pembrokeshire, Saturday is the next potential shot for something more widespread but introduces more marginal conditions towards SW parts.

See snow more than likely but mainly light, seeing anything more significant starting to look less likely, obviously the ICON 12z would be best case. Unsure what UKV shows this evening.

Unlikely any warnings will be issued for us just yet, more than likely a day before the event (if any) - Unless things change in favour of more widespread precipitation /accumilations.

Latest ICON not making as much of Thursday/Friday's front on the 06z run - Mostly pembrokeshire: GFS and ECM have it reaching us but very light and patchy. UKV still looks good from what has been posted here. So still very uncertain for the end of this week.

ICONs latest view on Thursday: Its still rolling out at the moment but Pembrokeshire may end up being the sweet spot Thursday...not often that happens. Then shows heavier precipitation moving into S/SE Wales Friday am.

ECM keeping things on the cold side again, the above chart is a long way off and by no means anything special but it does show potential as energy from the altantic going under the block.

Indeed latest ECM: Not sure what the latest UKV shows. Pembrokeshire looks best placed at the moment, unless the models continue to make less of this front.

Latest ICON has the front on thursday struggling to reach SW Wales, GFS 12z does have it reaching Wales but mainly light precipitation. Await the ECM next to see what it shows....

Indeed, Id still be cautious of any front making it into Wales at this stage, the ECM and UKV do look promising at the moment. The apps chop and change like no tomorrow as they are fed new data. Liam Dutton did a good write up on his Facebook page with regards to this cold spell and he mentioned the weather apps. Just recently had a few tiny flakes here.

Same here in 2018, Amber warning over Swansea but got very little snow but to be fair i think the warning in this neck of the woods was mainly for wind rather than snow. The weather models often struggle with these breakdown situations and often the GFS is to quick to bring in systems off the Atlantic. If anything id say in the last few any breakdown has been delayed and high pressure is holding more than initially thought.

Latest ECM keeps things cold but that front for Thursday/Friday not as intense and struggles to make it much inland, a sign that the block is holding strong.

The colder air was delayed by a few hours, but is now starting to feed in, wouldnt be suprised to see a few lucky locations there with over a foot of snow. End of this week is still very much up in the air, its likely the atlantic will try and push in but uncertainty around how far any frontal systems will get.

Had some sleet here today, around about 150m there was some proper snowflakes, making it the 3rd weekend in a row that it has snowed here. This winter for my own location so far has comfortably exceeded previous winters since about 2010. The ECM for mid week onwards shows what happens when the energy from the atlantic goes over the block rather than attempting to go under it, high sinks into Europe and we end up with a cold SE flow but largely dry.

Just after mid week and you can start to see the possible battleground situation taking form. Heights building over Spain/France but you can still see the high over Scandi on the GFS: Ive just looked at the GEM and to my eye it keeps the high over Scandinavia stronger and further west - so the block holding out against the Atlantic more so than the GFS.

ICON showing this feature for early hours of Sunday, moving south west (gradually weakening) main interest will be over east Wales but wouldnt rule out a few flakes even in the south.

Indeed for most of Wales it looks to be dry and cold with the possibility of snow showers across eastern parts of Wales, maybe something more organised as we go into Sunday but again for those west of high ground I wouldnt expect much. The ECM does show the best case situation if you want snow, but In the past ive put much hope in the possibility of a snowy breakdown only for it to go wrong, for that much depends on how lows make their way into the UK. At the moment it looks like the jet will stay to our south so there's the possiblity of 'slider' lows, I would urge people not to pay much attention to snow charts for next week they will change drastically from run to run.

I havent been in the model thread for years and dont intend too because of things like that, shame really because there is allot to be learned from some very knowledgeable people on here. If its not a Kent clipper or a Thames streamer then it dont count. On another note, some very nice looking snowfall charts for eastern parts of N England and Scotland.

Some pictures and a video from me: Poor quality I know but you can almost make out the snow line on distant hills I'm guessing 150m possibly. 20210131_133703.mp4

I agree, seems like fairly light precipitation with sleet/snow turning gradually to rain on low ground as the day progresses. Thats going by the ECM at least. Might be why the Met Office have not issued a snow warning for tomorrow because while there may be snow falling its unlikely to accumilate away from hills.

Latest ICON going for the front coming further north rain to coastal areas of the south with snow inland.

Latest ICON going for the front coming further north rain to coastal areas of the south with snow inland.

Im quite suprised theres no snow warning from the Met Office tomorrow for anywhere in Wales, given what the GFS and ECM are currently showing. Usually in such circumstances they put a warning out but in their warning matrix they select "Unlikely"......I trust they must be fairly confident that the front will not make it this far north.

Didnt do to bad after all:

Latest ICON still looks good for most a little marginal for immediate coasts as has been mentioned: