SnowStorm(Jamie)

January 21

I think the amber warning is more to do with the gusts of 50-60mph being more inland than perhaps usual, nothing exceptional here in Swansea gusts may peak at around 70mph in a few spots (mumbles for example)

Still a powerful winter storm none the less with greater impacts towards NW Wales where peak gusts around 80-90mph.

January 17

The west and south west look fairly well placed for some snow showers tonight some of which will be heavy as shown on the latest ICON:

AROME also showing some intense showers:

I'll be a bit to far east here in Swansea, maybe Llanelli will cop the odd snow shower.

January 14

Some Met Office warnings in effect for the coming days mainly in the north and west:

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Latest ARPEGE shows a streamer during the early hours but it's mostly rain:

January 14

ICON shows some wintry showers overnight, nothing massive but a few spots in the west could get lucky. These will tend to become reserved to the far SW as winds veer more northerly.

Latest models keep that low pressure for Wednesday to the south for now but still uncertainty.

January 13

42 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Latest ICON seems to decrease any shower activity Monday Tuesday frustratingly compared to previous runs. However it also brings Wednesdays low further north. Some swings still to come with that maybe.

lets see what the others show now

Yep looks like the latest GFS has that low a bit further north again also.

Perhaps the models are underestimating the shower activity over the Irish sea for us Monday/Tuesday, i remember years ago this use to be the case with some of the models but i imagine things have changed since then.

Let's see if the ECM also brings that low a bit further north.

January 13

Looks like the winds will turn to the NW/NNW for a time with cold upper air running over the Irish sea, normally in these cases showers train across parts of NW/W/SW Wales but can push further inland, the ICON model has been picking up on these the last few days ive noticed, one to keep an eye on.

The low pressure system on Wednesday looks unlikely to impact Wales now, going further south. That being said this mornings GFS does have it clipping the S/SE corner of the UK...

March 8, 2023

Snow has turned to rain here now, more precipitation to come later so more snow for areas away from immediate coast.

March 7, 2023

29 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Well temps going the right way now 2.7c after a high of 7.4c. I'm still not overly optimistic for my location but a few miles inland and it's looking good!

My thoughts exactly id be surprised to see any snow here tomorrow. Sleet possibly.

March 7, 2023

Much depends on how far north that front comes tonight into early hours.. just checking out the AROME 12z data now and it shows it making it into S Wales, focus of heavier snow towards E/SE Wales. Weather apps not really reliable in these situations as they will chop and change as new data comes in.

February 17, 2022

5 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

It will be interesting to see how bad this actually goes, or if it ends up less severe, with the models swaying with its exact path still and wind speeds going up, then down, then up again etc. A selfish part of me would like to see an 80+mph gust as in my nearly 28 years on earth I can't recall really seeing any past 60-70mph.

Yes changes in the path of the storm will alter who see's the most powerful gusts as we have been seeing, but regardless 60-70mph widely tomorrow. Perhaps the most violent gusts will stay out over the bristol channel. But looking at the UKV it looks very nasty indeed....not sure if im looking at the latest run/data however...

February 12, 2021

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looks decent but it's always a worry when the Met Office don't agree.

Yep especially this close to the event.

February 12, 2021

Latest ICON:

Met Office app showing rain for south west (Tenby) snow further east, maybe an indication of what is being shown on the latest UKV.

February 12, 2021

Im not sure if the BBC weather uses the ECM data or not? I dont think they use the Met Office model (UKV) on tv anymore?

February 12, 2021

20 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Unfortunately that's in line with the latest UKV which keeps South Wales dry again tomorrow

Those automated forecasts should change soon to reflect this.

Latest AROME does bring in some snow but again mainly light and patchy:

Tough one to call really with some of this mornings early output, hopefully we will have some more clarity either way this evening one way or the other, but as we all know that doesn't always happen.

February 12, 2021

Just now, mattrout92 said:

Yeah a little bit underwhelming. But they did the same thing a couple of weeks ago only to change their mind and put a warning out on the day itself, so let's up for a repeat performance!

Yep hopefully we still see some falling snow at least, im personally expecting more marginal conditions than shown by the likes of the ICON especially in the south west. It may not be the main event most wanted to end this cold spell but it appears to be all we are getting.

February 12, 2021

26 minutes ago, bradymk said:

After a good 00z set, just to show that the uncertainty is still high for tomorrow, the short range models Arome, Arpege, Harmonie and ICON have all downgraded compared to 00z outputs. GFS not great too.

All part of the rollercoaster as normal and I'm sure what actually happens will still be slightly different to the models anyway. UKV looks good though as per Matts post. ^

Latest Met Office warnings are out, doesnt seem like they believe anything really accumilating on low ground in the south.

February 12, 2021

Theres certainly a swing in favour today of a period of falling snow for Wales tomorrow going by 0z data. My guess is if this is continued to be shown they may extend their warning further south and east across Wales....we will see.

February 11, 2021

Latest ECM for Saturday:

February 11, 2021

Yep warning for Saturday also reduced, but they do highlight the uncertainty.

February 10, 2021

ECM 12z for Saturday if anything makes less of the front but still shows a period of snow.

GFS 12z view on Saturday, not much precipitation about. Goes onto bring in a more widespread risk of snow away from coasts early hours of Monday.

February 10, 2021

20 minutes ago, bradymk said:

From glancing at the 12z's so far, there seems to be a slight trend (Icon & Arpege aside) towards Saturdays front potentially suffering from the same treatment as Thursday nights.

On a lot of the models it has trended further west and is weaker than previous runs. Of course this can be good or bad for us. If it stays intact and stalls over Wales, great. If it dissipates too quickly coming into the cold air, we may get left with very little, particularly further east. Although it may still colder for slightly longer.

Good to see ICON sticking with its output and the Arpege joining. All to play for Saturday still and on to the ECM.

With the Thursday night snow, more confidence tonight of this being a non-event unless you're in the far south west. Time for it to upgrade slightly but not many models at all showing any widespread precipitation.

Yes if you look at the GFS the front on Saturday is very patchy, it will be interesting to see if the other models start making less of the front.

Thursday night it clips the far SW but thats it, all models pretty much agree on that now.