SnowStorm(Jamie)
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Everything posted by SnowStorm(Jamie)
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I think the amber warning is more to do with the gusts of 50-60mph being more inland than perhaps usual, nothing exceptional here in Swansea gusts may peak at around 70mph in a few spots (mumbles for example) Still a powerful winter storm none the less with greater impacts towards NW Wales where peak gusts around 80-90mph. -
The west and south west look fairly well placed for some snow showers tonight some of which will be heavy as shown on the latest ICON: AROME also showing some intense showers: I'll be a bit to far east here in Swansea, maybe Llanelli will cop the odd snow shower.
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Some Met Office warnings in effect for the coming days mainly in the north and west: UK weather warnings - Met Office WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Latest ARPEGE shows a streamer during the early hours but it's mostly rain:
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ICON shows some wintry showers overnight, nothing massive but a few spots in the west could get lucky. These will tend to become reserved to the far SW as winds veer more northerly. Latest models keep that low pressure for Wednesday to the south for now but still uncertainty.
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Yep looks like the latest GFS has that low a bit further north again also. Perhaps the models are underestimating the shower activity over the Irish sea for us Monday/Tuesday, i remember years ago this use to be the case with some of the models but i imagine things have changed since then. Let's see if the ECM also brings that low a bit further north.
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Looks like the winds will turn to the NW/NNW for a time with cold upper air running over the Irish sea, normally in these cases showers train across parts of NW/W/SW Wales but can push further inland, the ICON model has been picking up on these the last few days ive noticed, one to keep an eye on. The low pressure system on Wednesday looks unlikely to impact Wales now, going further south. That being said this mornings GFS does have it clipping the S/SE corner of the UK...
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Snow has turned to rain here now, more precipitation to come later so more snow for areas away from immediate coast.
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My thoughts exactly id be surprised to see any snow here tomorrow. Sleet possibly.
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Much depends on how far north that front comes tonight into early hours.. just checking out the AROME 12z data now and it shows it making it into S Wales, focus of heavier snow towards E/SE Wales. Weather apps not really reliable in these situations as they will chop and change as new data comes in.
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Yes changes in the path of the storm will alter who see's the most powerful gusts as we have been seeing, but regardless 60-70mph widely tomorrow. Perhaps the most violent gusts will stay out over the bristol channel. But looking at the UKV it looks very nasty indeed....not sure if im looking at the latest run/data however...
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Yep especially this close to the event.
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Latest ICON: Met Office app showing rain for south west (Tenby) snow further east, maybe an indication of what is being shown on the latest UKV.
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Im not sure if the BBC weather uses the ECM data or not? I dont think they use the Met Office model (UKV) on tv anymore?
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Those automated forecasts should change soon to reflect this. Latest AROME does bring in some snow but again mainly light and patchy: Tough one to call really with some of this mornings early output, hopefully we will have some more clarity either way this evening one way or the other, but as we all know that doesn't always happen.
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Yep hopefully we still see some falling snow at least, im personally expecting more marginal conditions than shown by the likes of the ICON especially in the south west. It may not be the main event most wanted to end this cold spell but it appears to be all we are getting.
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Latest Met Office warnings are out, doesnt seem like they believe anything really accumilating on low ground in the south.
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Theres certainly a swing in favour today of a period of falling snow for Wales tomorrow going by 0z data. My guess is if this is continued to be shown they may extend their warning further south and east across Wales....we will see.
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Latest ECM for Saturday:
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Yep warning for Saturday also reduced, but they do highlight the uncertainty.
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ECM 12z for Saturday if anything makes less of the front but still shows a period of snow. GFS 12z view on Saturday, not much precipitation about. Goes onto bring in a more widespread risk of snow away from coasts early hours of Monday.
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Yes if you look at the GFS the front on Saturday is very patchy, it will be interesting to see if the other models start making less of the front. Thursday night it clips the far SW but thats it, all models pretty much agree on that now.
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ARPEGE similar to ICON for Sat:
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Latest GFS for Saturday: ICON is more promising for Saturday still but I think its being a bit generous with snowfall distribution, see what the ECM shows later.
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Im in neither warnings at the moment, things can change but at the moment i dont see the precipitation making it much further than Pembrokeshire.
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Models take on Saturday's front: GFS> ECM>ICON> ARPEGE Can certainly see the uncertainity there, how far north and east it gets, intensity, etc.
