SnowStorm(Jamie)

Yep especially this close to the event.

Latest ICON: Met Office app showing rain for south west (Tenby) snow further east, maybe an indication of what is being shown on the latest UKV.

Im not sure if the BBC weather uses the ECM data or not? I dont think they use the Met Office model (UKV) on tv anymore?

Those automated forecasts should change soon to reflect this. Latest AROME does bring in some snow but again mainly light and patchy: Tough one to call really with some of this mornings early output, hopefully we will have some more clarity either way this evening one way or the other, but as we all know that doesn't always happen.

Yep hopefully we still see some falling snow at least, im personally expecting more marginal conditions than shown by the likes of the ICON especially in the south west. It may not be the main event most wanted to end this cold spell but it appears to be all we are getting.

Latest Met Office warnings are out, doesnt seem like they believe anything really accumilating on low ground in the south.

Theres certainly a swing in favour today of a period of falling snow for Wales tomorrow going by 0z data. My guess is if this is continued to be shown they may extend their warning further south and east across Wales....we will see.

Latest ECM for Saturday:

Yep warning for Saturday also reduced, but they do highlight the uncertainty.

ECM 12z for Saturday if anything makes less of the front but still shows a period of snow. GFS 12z view on Saturday, not much precipitation about. Goes onto bring in a more widespread risk of snow away from coasts early hours of Monday.

Yes if you look at the GFS the front on Saturday is very patchy, it will be interesting to see if the other models start making less of the front. Thursday night it clips the far SW but thats it, all models pretty much agree on that now.

ARPEGE similar to ICON for Sat:

Latest GFS for Saturday: ICON is more promising for Saturday still but I think its being a bit generous with snowfall distribution, see what the ECM shows later.

Im in neither warnings at the moment, things can change but at the moment i dont see the precipitation making it much further than Pembrokeshire.

Models take on Saturday's front: GFS> ECM>ICON> ARPEGE Can certainly see the uncertainity there, how far north and east it gets, intensity, etc.