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Jeremy Shockey

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Everything posted by Jeremy Shockey

  1. we had a low here of 2.8 c last night in East Yorkshire. ( and a few of my mates in North Yorkshire recorded lower with actual grass frosts e.g Vizzy at Kirkam Priory)
  2. UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs UPPERS UKMO 12z @ 144 hrs It could be quite pleasant by Thur according to the UKMO 12 z
  3. GFS 0Z @ 192 hrs blimey that would be a bit of a shock !
  4. GFS 6z @ 294 The SE could be in for a late cold shock on 23rd !
  5. according to the radar the band of precipitation extends much further South than the earlier MetO forecast had suggested. I'd say parts of Yorkshire above 200 m will get snow out of this ( North York Moors for example .....where is Vizzy ? )
  6. Nice covering on top of the Wolds and still snowing now ( pics later )
  7. Sleet here at North Newbald. Will head up over the Wolds shortly to see if it turns to snow up there
  8. We need a small correction North for the majority of Yorkshire to get lucky with snow on Thur.........it could happen though. The snow will be on the Northern flank and the uppers look cold enough ( and it all comes in the very early morning so the timing is right ) We just need a 100 mile correction N
  9. The Yorkshire Wolds were beautiful this morning. A166 totally blocked for a few hours near Fridaythorpe at 7.30 a.m.
  10. GFS has been indicating a cold Northwesterly shot around 26th Feb for some days now. I'm not holding my breath because it doesn't really result in snow for much of the UK and doesn't currently have great support from other models. Nevertheless with a bit of an upgrade it could deliver something Wintry GFS 6z @ 192 Projected Uppers at 192
  11. GFS 6z at the very end ! You have to laugh ( ironically ) when GFS 6z shows a potent Northerly in its last few frames.
  12. Welcome to Yorkshire Kentspur ......it looks pretty good above 200 m either Monday or Tuesday to be honest. The uppers are better on Tue ( around -7 ) but probably less precipitation as you say. It could be a case of chasing the radar ! ( i wouldn't rule out some fun on Thur either with a bit of luck ) Ill be up on the Wolds tomorrow and in the Pennines on Wed. Good luck
  13. Tableaux GEFS 6z 850 hPa GEFS 6z have actually upgraded the uppers for the period 11th - 12th Feb with a lot more of the -7 isotherm across the UK. Surprise snowfall for a few i expect ( especially at decent elevation ) GEFS 6z mean @ t102 and not a bad mean either.
  14. GFS 12z @ t108 Uppers @ t108 GEFS 12z ensembles Surely some good probability of snow showers starting at t108 ( for a couple of days ) with decent uppers. Elevation probably required so i will be heading to the Yorkshire hills in my location , but chances exist above 200 m across the country i would expect.
  15. GFS 6z @ 144 GFS 6z @ 144 Wed 12th looking very windy and very cold with uppers that will deliver some snow to many in the North and West ( and perhaps others down South too if this upgrades ) .
  16. GFS 12z @ 120 ECM 12z @ 120 UKMO 12z @ 120 GEM 12z @ 120 Comparing the main 4 @ t120 . It is not great viewing . All we have is a 24 hour cold shot on 4th Feb ( maybe stretching into 5th ) . Cold down the East coast for a time but that is about it. All over by Feb 6th and back to South Westerlies thereafter,
  17. GFS 6z @ 144 Uppers @ 144 A slightly better effort from the GFS 6Z , showing the 2 day Northerly before the High moves over the UK and then slowly collapses. Likely to be very chilly down the East coast of the UK ( Feb 4-6 ) and still time for upgrades if the High is orientated slightly further West.
  18. ECM 0z @ 192 ECM 12z @192 ECM 12z is not as good as the ECM 0z. The high collapses and the very cold uppers are lost quickly. Might be ok for a brief Northerly for those in the East of the UK around t168 ( Feb 5th ) but overall it is a bit disappointing. There is still hope as ECM is very similar to UKMO and GEM at t144 but the real Boom charts have gone for now.
  19. UKMO 12z @144 Much improved from the UKMO 12z. Decent amplification. Would be interesting to see the day 7 chart later to see if the ridge collapses. ( and where it collapses to ) A Northerly still likely , just a shame that the high is not slightly further West. ( GEM 12z similar for what it is worth ) If the ECM 12z looks anything like the ECM 0z i will be happy.
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