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Jeremy Shockey

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    North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
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    golf , cricket , tennis , NFL , Bob Dylan , snow !

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  1. yes , GFS 18z looks ok @216 with a Northwesterly flow ( but nothing to get over excited about just yet )
  2. Tableaux GEFS 12z GEFS Ensembles 12z GEFS Control 12z @216 GEFS uppers 12z @216 A bit of interest from the GEFS for 28th / 29th Jan still. ( but can those uppers deliver anything away from high ground ? )
  3. ECM 0z @ 240 ECM 12z @ 240 ECM 12 z uppers @ 240 A little bit better at the end from ECM 12z in comparison to the 0z but hardly enough to get carried away with yet. The good news is that the GFS has been pointing at a cold Northwesterly for 28th / 29th Jan too for several runs . So there is still hope GEFS 12z control run @ 240
  4. GFS 6z for 28th Jan For a number of recent runs now GFS puts the High in a favourable position on Jan 28th for a short cold Northwesterly blast. -8 uppers flooding down ( but probably watered down by the time we get there ) It will be interesting to see the control for the GEFS 6z shortly since that has been very good recently for this date also.
  5. GEFS 12z control for 29th Jan GEFS 12z control still keeping the faith for a cold Northwesterly blast for the North
  6. GFS 6z @ 258 Actually i don't think its all over for a cold Northwesterly shot around 28th Jan.( as shown by GFS 6z ) It would only need a slightly better orientation of the high for the cold uppers to come flooding down. ( for the North of the UK at least ) Still a few very cold options on the GEFS Lets see what the 12 z's bring shortly.
  7. ECM 12z @ 240 At long last the PV lobe over Canada takes a hike thus allowing our HP the opportunity to move West and North a bit without getting flattened. With this favourable orientation of the High we probably get a decent cold Northwesterly or Northerly ......but for how long ?
  8. GFS 0z control @ 240 The GFS 0z control @ 240 is the absolute best scenario we can hope for in terms of the position of the high. ( with the current PV set up ) Most models suggesting a flow from NW but for how long ? .....and will be uppers be watered down in reality ?
  9. GFS 12 z control @ 240 So what happens after our dry , settled , hopefully frosty spell of about 7 days duration dominated by the 1045 UK High ? I wouldn't mind the GFS 12z control @ 240hrs.
  10. ECM 12z @ 192 i think most us us are expecting a cold UK High now ( which could last 7 days or so according to most models ) It doesn't look as if it can get far enough North ( yet ) for Easterlies Maybe some cold PM shots later ( which could be potent and deliver decent snowfall to the North ) We have come quite a long way in the last 4 days of model watching. Plenty of Winter remains.
  11. GFS 0z @144 UKMO 0z @144 ECM 0z @144 GEM 0z @144 So a cold UK High looks the most likely outcome around 19th Jan according to most of the 0z runs. Can the High then orientate into a more favourable position for longer term cold after that ? The GEM tries to build a ridge NE at 168 but then flattens. ( below ) GEM 0z @168 The GFS 6z ( just out ) looks to do something similar @ 168 ( below ) GFS 6z @168 Overall Summary , Cold , Dry , Frosty with further chances down the line towards the end of the month.
  12. GFS 12z @ 168 GEM 12z @ 168 ECM 12z @ 168 It is unfortunate that we cant see the UKMO 12z @ 168. At least we have some amplification within the 7 days period from most of the models ( which was totally lacking 3 days ago )
  13. UKMO 12z @144 At least we are now actually discussing 144 charts ( as opposed to just 384 charts ) ! The UKMO 12z @144 is significant (IMO ) because it is the first time we have seen any amplification at all at this range recently. In addition the UKMO 12z @144 is not that dissimilar to the ECM 12Z @ 216 that we saw on Thur evening 3 days ago ).
  14. UKMO 0z @t144 shows the beginnings of PV separation perhaps. ( and certainly a migration of the main lobe towards Siberia ) One to watch as we head to the 12z s later on i suspect.
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