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lutfishah

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    Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    AO will stay positive this winter?? Dr. Cohen’s method has changed. He used to look at total snow cover at the end of October. Now it’s the rate of change of the snow during October. That makes a difference this year, so, even though the Eurasia snow was the 4th most ever recorded, the rate of change wasn’t very large.

     

    http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html

    • Like 2

    Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    i really LOVE the sound of this, but i don't even know who the guy making the forecast is tbh, so i have no idea if this is ridiculously exaggerated like the papers headlines, or if he has knowledge and evidence to back it up, it does sound too good to be true though it really does

    THe thing is that I was reading Joe astardi's tweets about the last cold during December and he was keep on saying that UK will get prolong cold and snow but Piers Corbyn tweeted and said nope its going to miss UK. and most of the models were also going for long cold period but then it didn't happen. Piers was right. Now the this winter we have not seen any thing like this from Piers until now but lets see what happens.

    Weather in the general media (Newspaper features etc)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This is what piers corbyn said today...

    Extreme cold, blizzards and snow drifts "many feet deep" to bring chaos to England and Wales for at least three weeks - into early Feb

    · WeatherAction forecast issued ahead of all others

    This catastrophic forecast scenario was first issued in detail in mid-December by WeatherAction long range forecasters and is now starting to come true. "Other forecasters are just starting to agree with us three weeks late but they don’t realize how severe this is going to be", said Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeratherAction.com

    "Our solar-lunar based forecast predicted generally increasingly cold and very cold weather from around Sat 12th Jan for Britain and Ireland. Next, waves of major Arctic blasts and blizzards with many feet of drifting snow are likely in places from around 20th with another major blizzardy blast around the begining of February.

    "England and Wales including the South are likely to get the deepest snow, while Scotland and Northern parts of Ireland will probably be very cold rather than very snowy. Some of the SouthWest of Britain and Ireland will probably get rain rather than snow at times.

    · Sudden stratospheric warmings forecast breakthrough

    "There will be fluctuations in the severity of this weather but our confidence in this general forecast is increased by our new breakthrough in predicting major sudden warmings of the polar stratosphere, which in a contradictory way drive blasts of very cold air south.

    "Although there is something of a 'stratospheric warming' developing now 10 Jan", said Piers, "we expect more intense 'sudden stratospheric warmings' and related cold blasts around quite well defined dates to come. We are 85% sure of this general picture and further details of the weather and stratosphere forecasts can be found via our websitewww.weatheraction.com ".

    WeatherAction expect snow amounts to be as bad or worse than the record-breaking December 2010 - which they also predicted.

    "Dr Stephen Wild, snow-expert at Weathernet advises that previous significant snow blasts in the last 10 years before Dec 2010 in England and Wales were: begining Jan 2010, 8-9 Feb 2007, Feb 1996 and Jan 1993", said Piers.

    "These extreme events are entirely driven by solar activity and lunar factors and nothing to do with changes in CO2 which have no effect whatsoever on weather or climate", he added.

    Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If the end of November comes off as gp and co predict , then people won't agree but I'm gonna give the model award to the CFS , it has been consistently picking the trough moving East and amplifying and Hugh block building towards Greenland. I knwo CFS has a habit of changing alot but for the end of November it has been the most consistent I have ever seen it.

    Completely agree. Cfs has been consistent and keep on mentioning cold starting from 25th Nov to 8th of dec.

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