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SnOwFeSt

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    West leeds, 115m asl

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  1. tbf even when i've been in the alps and its -5c during the day the snow still melts on the road/ cars etc as the solar radiation takes patches of ice/snow above freezing. It quickly refreezes when in the shade/ under cloud though!
  2. Wow. Unbelievable amount of snow. And this is just the start for them. You wonder at what point people need evacuating from this- I mean no food, house buried and presumably no way in or out. Unless they’ve stocked up and are just hunkering down for the next few weeks?!
  3. Looks like this weird dragon streamer thing is snow bearing. And we’re on for a direct hit!
  4. Low pressure is showing as much weaker mid-week on GFS. From memory of past cold spells, they always struggle much more to break through once the cold air in entrenched. Lets hope the trend continues! Ideal scenario would be we get a slider pushed over us with subsequent snow dumping! I'm still looking at the chunk of vortex north of scandi. If the atlantic bits of vortex are weaker and further south and keep tranding this way, we could see a reload from the north!
  5. Seems to be a bit of a north south divide. Up here in Leeds it has been a very cold and snowy winter so far. Just 7 above average days, 12 max temps below 2c, 22 min temps below 0 and 3 ice days and (from vague memory) at least 8 days with at least 50% snow cover. Our average temp for the month was 1.84. Remove the 4 warmest days and the average for the month would have 1.1c
  6. About 15 cm of snow here at work. Only just made it in this morning. I live 6 miles away, so may well have to walk home as roads are all gridlocked and its still throwing it down..
  7. Looks real knife edge stuff doesn't it? I think it will come down to nowcasting. It currently looks the wrong side of marginal, but has been trending in the right direction in very tiny increments!
  8. Heavy snow and settling despite the very wet ground this morning in west Leeds. Very marginal, but I think ourt 140m above sea level has helped. Though not quite the epic BFTE style weather, this is our 4th settling snow fall so far this winter (many more sleetly/ wet snow events), and temps well below average, so its just great to see good solid, consistent seasonal weather. I see the 'mild spell' on the forecast is not as mild as previously forecast. Now forecast to get no higher than 6c, with continued night frosts, before dropping back (and potentially much colder) from next week onwards. I do think the persistence of the cold has lowered the ground temps - ground frosts appear very readily now and the tap water temp is absolutely freezing!
  9. We’ve had snow all day and fun out sledding and making snowmen with the kids today. ..None of which was forecast until this morning. With low pressure and deep cold air around anything can happen at short notice!
  10. Very snowy run and not miles out in FI for a change. I think gfs is picking up on the ssw response- with more arctic heights and reversal in tropospheric winds. I don’t want to call things too early, but this is really starting to look like a classic winter. More runs needed as ever!
  11. Love it when snow just develops in situ. I’m guessing it is being caused by slightly milder, moisture laden air running into colder air over land. I’m hopeful we’ll get some snow within the next couple of hours. Surface conditions look good too. Currently -2c and no rise yet.
  12. I disagree. We’re looking at at least 10 days of significantly below average temps. Even based on the ‘milder’ projections the CET will be running at 4+ degrees below the long term average for at least the first half of january. ..and that’s before we factor in the potential for much much colder weather down the line based on the hemispheric pattern and potential SSW effects. This is not bog standard winter weather by any stretch.
  13. Fantastic looking runs this morning. Gfs has a great slider coming in from Greenland. Lots of moisture and cold air wrapped up in it and coming into the existing cold air sat over us. Yes it’s not a deep freeze type of cold spell (maximas will scrape above zero), but could be extremely snowy, particularly more northern areas with a bit of elevation. Fantastic stuff from an imby perspective and looking like more reloads to come from it, each progressively colder. We’re in the cusp of a classic cold spell I think. Another couple of days to firm up on the post Xmas reload..
  14. GFS showing better amplification and 850s a degree or 2 cooler on Xmas eve. Could see some nice flurries on Xmas eve then a lovely cold crisp Xmas day. Then the main course to come! Perfect!!
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