Yorkshiresnows

Dude, you've every right to post your views, but if you are having trouble interpreting the charts, perhaps it would be sensible to pause and double check what you are posting ? From what I've noted on Weatherbell and after viewing the GFS, EMS and JMS (like that modal), ........ I'm bemused by your thoughts that the GFS must be correct .....? Y.S

Really struggling with the 'American guys', thing. ........ over on WeatherBell they are putting more faith in the European ....... and have consistently.

Totally Agree. Very interesting, informative and exciting. Please keep up the great work CC. Y.S

Hi Folks, Great output tonight and a step in the right direction. Obviously caution needed, but clearly the warming in the stratosphere is going to further impact as time goes on. I simply will never buy that an arctic High and warming strat could be anything other than good for Europes chances of cold. As those of us watching over the past years have seen, although no guarantee, .... its a massive plus for cold (CC's analysis is frankly brilliant and informative). G.P's forecast is looking good (nice to have Steve and G.P posting in the winter). I want frost and snow to snuff out the blossom appearing on the trees (its just not right at this time of the year !!). Y.S P.S TEITS please bring out the Beast motif ...... if just for old times sake !

Which US guys are you talking about? Joe B and Joe D are gunning for a major pattern change mid month ......... have you even looked in on the Stratos thread. What do you think the chances of a SSW event. Looks mighty probable to me. Jet to head South and pressure to rise over Greenland with time as whats left of the PV gets shunted towards Scandi. That's if there's anything left of the Polar Vortex by months end. Anyway, we will see how it all pans out. Y.S

Excellent post Nick. I agree with all of it. I still don't understand the massive depression on here. There is a change from +AO to -AO (This can only be good) and there is good evidence that when this goes, so eventually will the NAO. Also, we know damn well that the modals struggle to pick up changes away from an established zonal pattern, anyone remember the Easterly of Feb 2004 (think it was 2004, the one TEITS was lamblasted for predicting to occur a couple of weeks earlier). Zonal all the way, and then 'bang' big change. I see Ian is subtly but surely changing his outlook position, you were stipulating nothing but zonal all the way a few weeks ago ! Y.S

Hi Folks, I still think its too early to call on this just yet. The more distruption we have at the top is bound to eventually lead to distruption at the bottom. More patience required. Y.S

Good morning folks, A slight improvement in the modals, though no collosal shift ... yet. Thought I would copy part of a post from Weatherbell (Joe B) to add to the discussion (Mods, hope that this is okay here ?): "But we are not the only ones that have to worry about blocking. The large eastern atlantic ridge has directed a jet north through Scotland then south into southeast Europe and that is continuing. However the threat of a block,, the high height field shifting northwest toward Greenland would up the ante by the 20th across western Europe,. A look at the ensembles indicates why the worry Sat am the trough is north south near 25 east. The trough misses the UK to Spain for the most part With Mt Etna acting up it looks like its ash cloud will be driven south southeast By 168, the ridge is surging east into the area suffering from the cold in the front 5 days but by 240, the heights are rising toward Greenland and the next trough is coming in further west The pattern of discontinuous retrogression may lead to a trough from Scandinavia to Spain for week three and north to northeast winds for western Europe and much colder. Of course that would line up with what is going on in the states. So its good to have hands across the water". Again, the dates of cold or at least a change to cold beginning mid-month as per the original G.P winter forecast seems to be gathering some momentum. Interesting times ahead and in my opinion, winter has a long way to go !! Y.S

Yes MS. I understand the point you make, but surely one as experienced as yourself can cast your mind back countless times to big turnarounds by the modals ? It is not as if the stratosphere is cooling ..... we now know that massive warming events are occurring. With the QBO now easterly this will aid fully further warming events. Ozone concentrations remain high. I see no reason on 5th January to start undue worry. Its been a poor winter so far and I can understand frustration ... but firmly believe that the situation may change quite significantly for the better down the line. I should also add that I am a subscriber to Weatherbell and the talk there is of a shredding of of the PV and significant Northern hemisphere change come midmonth onwards. This is no guarantee of UK cold .... but a great sign nonetheless (also tying in with G.P's original thoughts back in November. Lets see how the GFS and ECM behave in the next few days as events further out start to come into the reliable. Regards Y.S

No matter how many times we are told not to take each run as gospel ...... everybody does and the mood swings one way and then the other. Everybody needs to refesh oneselves with G.P's original forecast, then have a look at a few of the update posts. Then go to the Stratos thread and check out CC's various analyis. Change is coming. Change was predicted. But it was not before mid-Jan at the earliest. Given the background signals, this looks a good call. The Strat warming will smash that Vortex given time. Each warming phase is stronger than the last and another is predicted within the next week to 10 days on top of those already ocurring. Mild for now and then a change ..... probably to colder, though nothing is set in stone. Y.S

Hi G.P, There is a lot of talk over on Weatherbell (Joe B and Joe D) concerning a pattern change early December (obviously this is skewed towards the US) though they are expecting a rise in heights over southern Greenland: For a change the ensemble means provide a more realistic solution with the North Pacific cold trough with an axis extending south west of 150W. Note the warmth in northeast Canada and southern Greenland reflected a tendency for blocking. Also the nosing ridge feeding the Great Basin high which helps deflect cold air south the east. The spaghetti chart which shows the 516, 546, 576 and 588 gpm height contours for each of the 21 ensemble members. Climatology is shown in green and ensemble mean in orange for those contours. White depicts the operational 18Z run. See how again the op run was an outlier. The majority of members are suggesting a central US trough which corresponds to the Pacific trough location anchor. One of these days soon, the op runs will reflect a change colder late this month and early December. BTW, this is the second straight GFS ensemble showing this tendency. It has more eastern Canada blocking. See 16 of the individual members. Almost a third were impressively cold.. I note that the emphasis of these discussions are in relation to the US situation, but a pattern change nevertheless. Just wondered what your thoughts were or, if I have (most likely) latched onto the wrong end of the stick. Interesting that the Weatherbell talk over recent days has been for December cold to begin to take hold (US) with a gradual cooling of central Europe into the NorthWest later ...... sounds possible this may be similar to your own thoughts but just a little sooner ? Cheers Y.S

Hi Folks, Just been catching up with the above and in regards to Paul Hudsons thoughts on the winter, I think folks are a bit wide of the mark. Paul thinks this winter is tough to call on balance but so far his interpretation of the various forecasts on offer would favour a 'colder than average punt' - though no indication of such cold as last December. Here's the latest from his blog: "The hype surrounding this year's winter forecast has been remarkable, unparalleled in my 20 years as a meteorologist. Driven largely by sections of the tabloid press and several small private weather companies, the idea that this winter could be the worst ever recorded has already become firmly planted in many peoples' minds. This is despite recent forecasting failures; the predicted heat-wave this summer by Netweather that never materialised; and the cold and snowy October blast, forecast by Exacta weather, that has turned out to be a total non-event - temporary chilly conditions in the last couple of days are perfectly normal for this time of year. But both stories were lapped up by an ever eager media. There are several reasons why we have seen a rise in sensationalist weather stories recently. Firstly, weather sells newspapers. I remember when I worked for the Met Office they tried to tackle one national newspaper about their 'over the top' coverage of weather stories only to be told that weather sells newspapers (a rise in circulation of 10% was quoted by one newspaper editor each and every time there was a front page weather headline). Secondly, a vacuum has been created by the Met Office, now they don't publish their seasonal forecasts anymore. This vacuum has been readily filled by small, private companies keen to get coverage. But back to the subject of this winter. With the sun much more active than it was this time last year, there are no guarantees that this winter is going to be cold and snowy despite one forecaster's claim that this winter could be the 'coldest ever recorded' - which is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely. Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, who analyses solar activity and how it impacts climate patterns, told me earlier in the week that this winters' forecast is not straight forward and 'a difficult call'. He will publish his winter forecast early next month. Close inspection of the forecasts that are available suggests that on the balance of probabilities a colder than average winter is the most likely scenario. This would mean some disruption due to snow, but not as extreme or long lived as last year. It's worth pointing out that this would mean 4 colder than average winters in succession, itself unusual for the UK, and we shouldn't altogether rule out an average, or even a mild winter. Interestingly the latest seasonal forecast is now available from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). It indicates close to average winter temperatures (averaged over Dec, Jan & Feb). But perhaps more interestingly, as can be seen below, it suggests higher than average pressure - which means lower rainfall. This would be bad news for drought affected eastern England, and could, if correct, lead to serious problems next year" So, some mixed signs, but nothing pointing categorically to mild. I would also add to this (being a paid member of weatherbell), that Joe laminate floori is favouring a colder than average UK and Europe winter (predominantly the North and Northwest Europe), with a full UK and Europe forecast due out on 30 October. He is also poo-pooing the idea of a strong La Nina, ...... believing that it will end up weak to modeate at most. In fact he is strongly critical of many of the global forecasting tools in this area (most forecast El Nino conditions only a few months ago) and most of the recent posts have centered around this topic. Anyway, I would suggest that sunspot increases will have little impact on the UK winter this year as they are still (cycle to cycel comparison) low ....... but guess time will tell. I'll come back on the 30th and post WeatherBells forecast. Cheers Y.S

This post is so riddled with inaccuracies and miconceptions that its a struggle as to know where to begin. I posted yesterday with references for you to look at. Perhaps a little more research and less silliness. Your opinion is your to give, but the reasons stated are so very wrong. 1) La Nina is forecast to return by the winter, the latest charts show this (a double dip La Nina is common in -PDO years). With a weak to moderate La Nina with favourable QBO, this is possible good news for Winter prospects 2) The QBO is expected to be the reverse of last year which should aid in high lattitude blocking. 3) The jet stream always wanders about .... don't get any of your arguments here. However, it has this year been again (as for the past few years) in an unusually South position relative to the Norm. Yes, its forecast to move North next week (good news for a possible warm August if it stays that way), but overall the trend has been the same as for the past few years during summer months. 4) Take a look at the Atlantic SST's ...... looking cold. 5) Solar activity is still very very very low ..... it has incrseased against a bckground of next to nothing. Did you not look at the references posted !! 6) The last few years has seen high Northern lattitude volcanic activity ...... the effects of which do not dissapear overnight !. This may all still mean diddly squat this winter as the weather is a fickle beast to predict, but the indicators at the moment do not suggest a wild, wet mild zonal winter for these shores in my opinion. Y.S

Have to politely disagree again The ENSO graphs latest runs are all for La Nina - go to Anthony Watts site and check all the graphs and predictions for yourself (http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/). Latest Sea surface temps in the Pacific (region as indicated), show a drop off: The fact that the Jet stream is directly over us now in summer mean it is South of its 'normal position' .... it should be over or to the North of Scotland in summer months. You have also completey misunderstood the current solar conditions. Even though activity has increased ...... over next to nothing, we are still under very low solar conditions, and probably one of the contributing factors as to why we have seen and are seeing a suppressed Jet position (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/14/all-three-of-these-lines-of-research-to-point-to-the-familiar-sunspot-cycle-shutting-down-for-a-while/). Y.S

Hi There, Here's the link: http://www.weatherbell.com/ Though I am afraid its a monthly subscription to get the premium site where the postings and video's are (though its only around £9 per month and well worth itm in my opinion). Cheers Y.S

Must disagree. The look this year is for weak to medarate La Nina (not El Nino) by the winter (2011/2012). With a change in the QBO also on the cards, we see far more favourable conditions for the winter season this year, .... on a whole, even more so than last year (which warmed considerably post end of the year). The AMO looks pretty cool to cold at the moment. Sun activity is still low (cycle to cycle comparisons) - http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/09/solar-activity-report-the-sun-is-still-in-a-funk/ The jet stream has continued to want to stay South of normal (noted over the past 3-5 years). There has been a lot of high lattidude volcanic activity in recent years. All of which would point to more favourable blocking conditions in the Atlantic. No certainties of course, but I would have thought that there are a lot of indicators showing good possibilities this year. (Oh and Joe laminate floori has already predicted a cold European winter ....... if that means a great deal !) Y.S

Hi Folks, Another months worth of climate temp data now in and the end of March sees -.04 Degrees against the latest 30 year running means. See http://www.drroyspencer.com/ Graph not yet available on that site until Thursday. Dr Maue’s running 8 day means indicate that April is still looking cold with the next 8 days globally at -.17 This all looking consistent with the PDO in negative territory. If we look further ahead at what is forecast later in the year ....... and its cold ............. Here's the projection from the Beijing climate modal: (see this link for detailed discussion: http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=822. I've cherry-picked the headline news below) Cool temps over the tropical Paciific very evident. In fact it has alot of the globe painted blue the latter part of the year with even a look of a cooling AMO !! For those thinking that the latter part of the year may see a return or possible return of El Nino, the above would suggest not ... and of course fits with a -PDO pattern. Further discussion on what Joe laminate floori thinks of this, is here: http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=803. Be interesting to see how this continues to pan out. Y.S

Hi TWS, But we are cooling now ... as I showed a couple of posts back. So lets see how the year pans out. I also believe that there is a greenhouse component (Co2 is a greenhouse gas - no argument) ....... just that its pretty small in comparison to natural factors. We are 2-3 years into the -PDO with the AMO due to switch within the next 5-10 years. Once these cycels are well in progress we will be able to gauge exactly where we are. I still maintain that given we have had 30 years of +PDO warming, the fact that the last 10 years shows little to no overall change, depsite a large increase in C02 suggests that the climate is not as sensitive to CO2 forcing as the IPCC believe. Not coincidence to me that the major warming occurred at a time of high solar activity (historically high) coupled with +PDO/+AMO ...... . Oceanic cycles are the key drivers in my view (yeah, I know that this is controversial). So far the -PDO pattern is as expected. El Nino collapse into potent La Nina, ..... lets see where we go from here. Cooling at the moment and that is a fact, how long this lasts is the question and where we end up stabilising to. Y.S

Yeah, but the La Nina in 2008 was not off the back of an El Nino where the yearly temp was near record high. If you look at the drop rate from peak. This years drop is the steepest I can see from the satellite monitoring era ... I'm not saying it is unexpected that we shoud cool or warm with El Nino or La Nina, . ... this is exactly the point, we should expect this and as we are now in a -PDO, we can expect to see a general negative trend setting in (if you are to believe in a natural cyclical explanation for the majority of the late 20th century warming). So far so good. Early days and all. If you look at the past 10 years and take a smoothed mean, there's little compelling evidence for any real warming (that is assuming that the current La Nina trough cancels the El Nino Peak, ...... which more or less looks a given). Since we have only recently switched to -PDO and the AMO has yet to turn, I think its pretty good news. Time as ever will tell ! Y.S No, your the only one who seriously thinks that was the case. 2007 +/- 1 is prety much universally accepted as the turning point for the PDO. I posted the Oceanic values on this last year and it was pretty obvious. Check out the data for yourself here: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Summer blizzard posted some additional data if I remember rightly also showing this. Also backed up by Joe B. Y.S

Just to add to the above Just take a look where we are currently heading. More cooling folks. March is also looking likely to be below average (That will be a 1/4 of the year below the average line ........ a massive difference to last year. It was also quite well predicted. I've copied the below from Joe B's new site: http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=209 "The 600 mb temp as shown on the AMSU site is very nice tool to demonstrate the overall tropospheric cooling that is going on. With March in the lower Troposphere continuing the trend…in a down up fashion down, ( off Dr Maue’s site) and 7 day running GFS temps through the 22cnd still forecasted below normal: ( again off Dr Maue’s site) It would appear a forecast made from what is now over a year ago for the cooling is correct. I have heard talk of the summer temps rebounding to above normal… seems like wishful thinking to me given the cfs summer forecast looks like a wash, but keep in mind a “wash†or a bit above normal doesnt hide what is going on. What should alarm the warmingista’s is the 600mb level temps which are near record lows like they were in 2008 as the last Nina raged Why is this alarming? Because the PDO has turned cold, thats why. The response to warming from el ninos when the PDO was warm, for example the nino of 02-03, had nothing this cold coming in back of it in the troposphere. This is 2 harsh responses in a row. In addition I didnt hear anyone last year at this time speculating that there would be this big a deep level response.. and certainly not the folks that want to convince you and me we are are going to burn up in a Venutian nightmare. So I have heard talk about this warmer than normal summer and perhaps the 2 meter temps, because of land mass warmth do get up there, but lets keep track of what the deep means are doing. Here is the chart again, showing the past year The normal is there, last year is there, and what is going on now is there. We can all watch it. Suppose it gets back to near or above normal for a time this summer..well if its cold all the time then that is colder than what I had since I had it near normal this year. But lets all watch the troposphere, and this is a real nice indicator of the mean tropospheric temp. Seems like the rout that is underway now for this year means yelling it is above normal for bit in the summer ( and that is in doubt) is like saying you are scoring a touchdown after being down by 40 points. The facts are the PDO is cold and the atmosphere is responding.. at 2 meters or 20k, its cooling down" Interesting times folks. Let's see where this goes !! Y.S

Hold on, the PDO only turned phase in 2007 !!!! Your not going to see imemdiate effects. We are on the way down. Two months with a dramatic downturn and this will be contibuing for some months even with the La Nina easing off. Lets turn this around. Once this La Nina trough is over, then the running mean is going to show (looks pretty obvious to me) that for the past 10-12 years - no overall warming. If so, given the additional Co2 pumped into the atmosphere ....... why have we not met with the IPCC forecast warming. Y.S

Hi Folks A quick look at current world temps sees a continuation of the fall (not surprising given La-Nina's continuing strength: Taken from Roy Spencers blog: The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for February 2010 (-0.02 deg. C) was almost identical to January’s anomaly (-0.01 deg. C), and even the Northern Hemisphere (-0.04 deg. C), Southern Hemisphere (0.00 deg. C), and tropics (-0.35 deg. C) anomalies did not change much from January. Interesting to see how low we will go !! Y.S

Hi G.W Well, lets take a look at the current situation in regards to La Nina: Small rise in temps, but still looking a strong event. And then the current ensemble forecast: I think that its fair to say, that just about anything could happen ..... though the mean would favour keeping La Nina conditions intact !!! As for the PDO maxing out. Well I think thats hopecasting old bean. So far, since 2007, the pattern has set itself nicely (El-Nino collapsing to potent La Nina). Sure there may be smaller El Nino spikes to come, but La Nina will be king for the next 30 year period (if the PDO phase is correctlt negative). .......... and that means a cooling phase is underway. As for the solar activity comment .... well of course the sun will show some activity, but it is the size (potentcy) of the maximums as well as the minimums that count. So far the sun has been very quiet. Time will tell if this is to continue, but a short burst of activity now means nothing. So far Joe laminate floori has been spot on with his global forecasts, and I can see no reason to see why he will be wrong with this year, .......but as ever, time will tell. Y.S

Yes, quite. Its no wonder Carinthian stopped posting. Thousands of doom laden posts talking mainly nonsence, with a few gems from serious folks lost amongst the noise. Given we are in La Nina for some considerable time, this would at least suggest more favourable summer conditions for ice retention. As stated many times previously and as forecast by Joe laminate floori and Roy Spencer, world temps are on the way down (see Roy Spencers blog site and the Aqua satellite data) - see below The fact that the PDO is now firmly negative and La Nina's set to dominate over El Nino, we should see a redistribution of the 'heat' away from the Arctic over the next cycle. Time will tell, but plenty to be looking at over the next few years. Some interesting banter over on Accu-weather's site. Here's the latest from Mr laminate floori himself: "The dropping of the Pacific ocean tropical temperatures is the equal of turning down the thermostat in the house. The cold PDO does that in a longer term sense, but the sudden collapse of the warmth in the equatorial Pacific has a lag effect on global temperatures and you can plainly see that occurring now. When one considers the amount of heat in energy in the oceans, and how it is stacked into the tropical oceans, one sees why the co2 argument is so far fetched. For even in using the co2 feedback argument in the atmosphere it is miniscule, but if you allow the ocean to be part of the system, the amount of energy contributed by co2 is so small it cant be measured. The idea that the atmosphere would drive the ocean is like asking a 125 lb wrestler to wrestle a heavyweight. As I continue to dive into this, and watch the weather behave in the larger sense according to logic ( if not even faster than I thought) any allowance for the co2 argument I have painfully tried to be open minded about fades away. Consider how the brutal winters of the late 70s occurred. 30 years of cold PDO, 20 years of cold AMO a monster La Nina, then the the reversal to an el nino. Now think... what is going on with cold PDO cold amo, and la nina.. globally? Well pressures have to be higher than normal in the tropical oceans and lower than normal over areas favored for cold. This is why the winters are so warm in eastern N America in La Ninas, even with a cold AMO. I believe this winter had something to do with the same set up that lead to the winters in 1916-1918, low solar previous major high latitude volcano. But now think folks, what happens when the tropical pacific warmed the way it did with the ninos of the late 70s, after all this run up. Pressures low in the tropical Pacific correct? The air warms in the tropical pacific correct. but the globe, and the pattern has been stacked for colder for 20 to 30 years and then given an extra injection by the La Nina. So one is starting from a large scale perspective of cold. If the pressures are going to suddenly fall in the tropical Pacific, what happens elsewhere, where they were lower? They rise in the means. What happens to the AO..positive in La ninas because of the tendency of high pressure in the tropical Pacific, lower further north ( you see it finally taking over since mid Jan) . They reverse. What happens to the unsuspecting people of eastern North America? Katie can bar the door, but the cold is coming anyway. Europe is still up in the air, until the AMO shifts, but that is coming in the coming decades. But the fact is this. YOU ARE THE DENIER if you dont think the oceans play an enormous role! And if you think that trace amounts of co2 in the atmosphere will push around the entire ocean-atmospheric system.. you are delusional. Seriously. I mean I am bending over backwards to say, okay lets watch this global temp the next 20-30 years, but if you dont see in the end the oceans are the main control ( if one does not start with the true source, the sun) then you really, that is almost incomprehensible. Now the counter argument is that the oceans are warming because of the air above. Well then let me ask you this. How is the warming you think is occurring CANT EVEN FORCE THE COOLING OF THE STRATOSPHERE WHICH IS THE REAL SMOKING GUN?! A true positive feedback and tropospheric warming should be forcing a contraction of the stratosphere and major cooling. Nothing, nada, zilch. And the density considerations of the stratosphere are next to nothing compared to the oceans. So let me get this straight... you want to warm the oceans via the warmer troposphere above it, in other words have something with less energy push something around with much more, yet you cant even get the response first in what it should obviously be able to do? So what is the bottom line. We are setting ourselves up for some harsh winters in N america. Europe you are still a dice shoot, till the AMO turns cold, then look out. If this is all we can get out of the last 20-30 years with the deck stacked for warming, then we may be in major trouble given the globe today vs the 70s. Of course given the state of the world, today, its a moot point. People like me though believe that we should try to solve some problems that we can see, than these other ones, especially since the answer may be opposite. I got to thinking about the enso temp swings when one of the more brilliant meteorologists I have ever met, and a good friend of mine ( I will protect him and not mention his name) was talking to me about what was going to happen when the nino of 07-08 came off. I had just put out the forecast for the warm eastern winter, but after I researched his position I was ready for 08-09 and especially 09-10! The other parts of my triple crown of cooling may have helped out this year, but notice that the solar fanatics and volcanic vigilante's only prevailed for a time. That is not to say they dont have their points, but they may grow larger with time. But consider this. Those 2 other wild cards factored in are why I am saying the bounceback winters from the nina, most like 12-13,13-14,14-15 could get the late 70s a run for their money, in which case the US economy may be up a creek without a paddle given winters similar to the late 70s with the economic demands of today would be a huge problem. Keep in mind, the nation was in an economic lull anyway then, but assuming we are going to go forward ( a bold assumption) then the weather may put that to rest. And when one looks at the globe as a whole, you can see my fear.. assuming you are rational. But what happens if we throw in the other 2 legs of the triple crown of cooling and we are 20-30 years down the road. You wonder why there are people worried about a mini ice age. Makes more sense to me than a trace gas in the atmosphere being able to push around the entire ocean atmosphere system. Nature will do what nature will do, and in the end, that may be the only answer that will come out of all this" You can't beat a bit of controversial argument !!! Y.S

Indeed Jethro, a fools errand on here sometimes. Having been in both camps over the years, then I have to agree. Post anything on here that goes 'against the 'consensus', ...... and watch out !!! Shame as there are many posters to admire with a lot of worthwhile knowledge to share. Right now, I'm intrigued by the current global temps, the contrast to this time last year and possible projections for the next 12 months and how this possibly (so far) is linking to the change in PDO. I suspect that this year may provide some challenging questions !! Y.S