benb

Showers backing up a bit in Cardigan Bay/ end of LLyn Peninsula now... Too far north and wrong wind direction, currently, for my location but looking a bit more streamer-like, heading Aberystwyth(ish) way. Waiting for the wind to shift round a bit more for here.

I find the predictive radar on the Met Office I-Phone app quite useful for getting an idea of where showers might develop; it's not perfect but it's not often far wrong. Currrently, it's showing a clump of showers for the SW 1-3am...

Radar starting to show some of those shower cells just about making it right across Eire now... hopefully pepping up over Irish Sea and giving a bit more shower action for the SW shortly.

Grey and rainy in Pembroke, atm. Hoping for enough on the Preselis for my boy's first sledge on Saturday morning... Wishful thinking or are we in with a shout?

Heavy wintry showers- rain/sleet/hail- between Tenby and Pembroke Dock this morning. Temp hovering around 3/4c. I'm sure there'll be a covering up the Preselis. Feeling seasonal at last!

Snow shower this afternoon in Tenby and a few big, fat wet flakes now! 2.5c Plenty of stuff heading this way, too!

The possibility of a bit more Dangler action into the SW looks about your lot over the next 48hrs or so... However, as the last few days have demonstrated, those precipitation forecast charts are not always as accurate as you might hope and I guess that can cut both ways; in this set-up, there's always the possibility something could appear that's currently unforecast.

Just looking at the same thing! Maybe tonight's the night! 3c here- also the coolest it's been during this cool spell... Less wind tonight might mean slower moving showers with more time to put a bit down and less warm air being blown in from the sea. Also 850s better -7/-8, atm and dewpoints favorable, too.

Just been up the Preselis (Crymych end)... 3/4c and frequent fleeting wintry showers, mainly of hail. Nothing white on the ground, bar the odd micro hail drift. Snow visible on the Beacons in the distance. I think we needed a cooler Autumn/early winter period to get much from the marginal situations of the last few days. A big high and a week of deep frosts in December might have helped take some of the 'local' heat out of the system. Atm, ground temps, air temps and sea temps all seem a bit too high to allow widespread, lowland settling snow. Has there actually been any ice-days across Wales this winter? Maybe the coming week will correct 'background' temps downwards and we'll have a shot at a snowy breakdown, at least.

Ground covered in hail here and there's quite a bit of snow in the mix now, too! Just hope there's enough legs in the showers to last a bit further into the evening.

Still a snow warning for Sunday for Wales. I suspect there's been a bit of snow Crymych/ Newcastle Emlyn way this morning...Can anyone confirm that? And there's some brighter echoes refreshing the streamer from Cardigan Bay currently. Though I agree that there has been a lack of widespread, lowland snow in this cool/cold spell that most people are after.

It's stopped now. The sun's out and the hail's melting! Still, it was fun while it lasted! I'd have thought there'd be a covering N and E of here, more directly under the streamer. Maybe get something tonight when the temps supposed to be a bit lower. I won't hold my breath though...

Temp down to 3c and a few flakes of SNOW!! coming down!

Hailing here now. Makes a change from the rain, anyway.

5c and just starting to rain in Tenby (it rarely does anything else!) You'd think higher parts of Pembs/Carms would see some snow later, as the colder air returns from the north. Just hope that streamer stays active... Sledging on the Preselis tomorrow- maybe!

I think they call that value... ;-) Have to see re wind speed. XC Weather is forecasting 60mph at midnight on the Pembroke Buoy and 56mph on the Aberporth Buoy. Is this system going to turn the wind back Westrly in front of it and raise the temps to the wrong side of marginal for snow away from the mountains?

Also, looks a fair bit of southerly movement on those bands of precipitation across Eire. I'm far from convinced the track is yet a done deal...

Ha Ha. They've coined the phrase Modern Polar Low on the dedicated thread i.e. something that's not as good as it used to be. Still, as long as it dumps a load of snow somewhere in Wales, that's fine with me. Someone also warning of 100+ mph gusts for Pembrokeshire tonight- is that at all likely/possible??

Bah, maybe I'm a bit old-fashioned, but It's not a polar low as far as I'm concerned- it's just a shallow low pressure that's formed in the flow. True polar lows (when I was a lad) formed in much colder air and were snow beginning, middle and end... 'Marginal' didn't come into it.

Glad to see a fair few with a bit of snow this afternoon... The Preselis looked nice and white this afternoon. A few hours later than expected, but not a total write-off after all. Radar does look interesting... is that lump of precipitation off W Scotland heading our way?? And a load of stuff heading out of Ireland... Love this set-up: anything can happen...

It was never going to be an epic and some areas have seen settling snow, albeit not at such low levels as many of the charts earlier in the week suggested.

Between 9 and 12, tomorrow morning across the SW, according to XC-Weather (not sure what model they base that on though).

That should improve as the wind shifts more NNW later tonight and tomorrow am? Most likely time for snow in the SW has always been progged for 6-12 Thursday morning...

Judging from the radar, looks like quite a bit more shower activity developing right across Wales, away from the SE corner. Could be some pleasant surprises for a few.

Hail and rain shower just passed through Tenby. 5c. Good luck all.