Cold Winter

Enhanced risk from the SPC for the next 3 days across southern US. This includes a 10% hatched risk area tomorrow and already a Day 3 enhanced risk that discusses tornadoes as the primary threat. I haven’t looked at the charts but it looks like the threat moves east a bit each day from TX through LA/MS.

Been following the lead-up to this over the last few days and it certainly seems like there’s a high possibility of severe weather tonight and tomorrow. NWS seem to think the biggest tornado threat today is from 11pm onwards UK time. Given the threat has increased a bit to the south, is there a chance things could kick off a bit earlier? At work early tomorrow but hoping to catch some of the livestreams later tonight.

Had a covering here from the showers that have passed through. One appeared to stay to the south of me on radar but looked out and it was snowing - think the southerly wind direction tonight helped it make the last mile or so! Lamp post watching beat radar tonight It’s modelled to get across. A lot of rain events do this don’t they - ie appear to stall at the Pennines then eventually the whole lot gets across, although usually weaker here than over in the west.

Still -2.5c here despite the radar suggesting the first batch of precipitation is approaching… suspect it will either fizzle out or we won’t see much at the surface. Edit: Yep, fizzling out.

To be fair the area over Leeds at the moment that is currently intensifying and growing slightly is modelled on the UKV for the next few hours to move over East Yorkshire.

UKV 15z snow depth chart for tomorrow morning. It thinks the Wolds will do best tonight which would be unusual for something coming from the west - I’d have put money on the Leeds/Huddersfield areas getting the biggest total.

-1.6c the maximum today after a low of -5.9c overnight with some patchy snow cover remaining from earlier in the week. Models looking interesting for tonight, as is the current radar. I can see that Arpege is on board for some slight accumulations… in my opinion if Arpege says yes then it suggests somewhere is going to see lying snow. The only question now is where - ie bit further north or south? Down to nowcasting. I’m expecting the area over north Wales is going to intensify a bit so all of Yorkshire should be in with a chance

About 20 minutes ago just north of Malton.

Looked very interesting a few minutes ago on radar

Very windy here now and just over 30c - almost as odd as the hot breeze during the heatwave in July last year

30c here and a strong, warm breeze. Current sky…

I live in Malton but work just over the other side of the moors. I’ve been caught in some really nasty storms in the past while up there.

Right in the middle of all the various outlooks/warnings I’ve seen for today. Already a hot and sunny 26c

Similar here. Need evaporative cooling and night time to have any chance. The best time for us in the east was always going to be after dark this evening, we might be luckier then as the low pulls away and wind direction changes.

2.0c here with drizzle and occasional sleet.

Temp rising here, up to 0.8c, and wind picking up too. Expecting some snow initially and then probably sleet until after dark tonight for my location. I’m sure those of you in South & West Yorkshire and the western half of N Yorks are going to have a grand day - enjoy!

I guess it’s true as the text is for all of Yorkshire, including the coast, but yes - would have thought more of an emphasis on significant snow over high ground might be relevant!

A few flakes in the breeze here now but really nothing much so far. Temp dropped by 1c in the last half hour, now 2.5c. Anyone over near Brid/Filey, looks like you’re getting a slightly heavier bit now, any good?

-3.8c on my station (in town in Malton). I reckon we’ll see one or two of the rural frost hollows across the region get down into negative double digits by dawn.

Spoke too soon - better for you guys in West/South Yorks by evening

18z Arpege is just rolling out and this is where we’re at so far… Not brilliant for us, want it to be a tad further north really

Hope I’m wrong too and get a foot of snow but quite unlikely

I disagree and think West Yorkshire, particularly areas >100m, and the western half of North Yorkshire, will see some substantial snow unless there’s a significant shift in position. It’s low lying places east of the A1 that I think will be more marginal and less likely to do well.

Hoping I’ll be wrong about Thurs/Fri, but generally modification from the North Sea can affect snow along the coast in these kind of events so those of us along or near the east coast are probably more likely to see a snow to rain event while those further inland will see more accumulating snow. I can see this being taken into account on the latest modelling which is trending towards lower snow depths for low ground in eastern parts of Yorkshire. Either way - any falling and settling snow will be a bonus after this winter!

Being picked up on a number of models (NMM, Arpege, Icon) which is interesting but you’re right - will be a case of seeing if anything materialises at the time. A good time for some settling snow - some people may wake up to a surprise tomorrow morning.