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Snowmad79

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About Snowmad79

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    Snowmad

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    OLDHAM EAST 297m ASL
  • Weather Preferences
    Snowageddon and the new ice age. Then, possibly, A jolly good bbq heatwave!

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  1. Hi just woke up ready for my night shift and the news page on msn from the mirror has the headline: UK braces for 20 inches of snow as forecasters warn nowhere will escape! http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/weather-uk-braced-for-20-inches-of-snow-as-forecasters-warn-nowhere-will-escape/ar-AAfLGj2?ocid=spartanntp ​ LMAO
  2. [size=2][b][color=#000000]Winter 2014/15 Oldham East[/color][/b][/size] [size=2][b]none event​[/b][/size] [size=2][color=#000000][b]Winter 2012/13 Snow Days and Accum's[/b][/color] [b][color=#696969]5th Dec 2012:[/color][color=#0000FF] [/color][color=#0000FF]Light covering :)[/color] [color=#696969]6th Dec 2012:[/color] [color=#0000FF]Sleety snow showers 12pm onwards 1-2cm accumulated.[/color][/b][/size] [b][size=2][color=#696969]13th Jan 2013:[/color] [color=#0000ff]2cm [/color][/size][/b] [b][size=2][color=#696969]14th Jan 2013:[/color][/size][color=#0000ff][size=2] 3cm top up[/size][/color][/b][color=#0000ff][size=2] [b](approx 2-3 inches acc)[/b][/size][/color] [b][size=2][color=#696969]15th Jan 2013:[/color] [color=#0000FF]Light showers and snow cover still there as of 17/01/2013[/color][/size][/b] [size=2][b][color=#696969]17th - 21st Jan 2013:[/color] [color=#0000ff]Light to moderate snow showers albeit fine, heaviest fall of winter on 21st[/color][/b][/size][size=2][b][color=#0000FF] - Total 5+ inches plus drifting[/color][/b][/size] [size=2][b][color=#696969]25th/26th Jan 2013:[/color][color=#0000ff] Heavy snow evening through till the early hours of 26th. Aprox 7-8 inches of extra snow, bringing cover widly to 1ft lying plus the huge difts. Classic![/color][/b][/size]​ [size=2][b][color=#000000]Winter 2011/12 Oldham East[/color][/b] [b][color=#696969]18th December 2011:[/color][color=#0000ff] 3" - 2 days lying [/color] [color=#696969]27th January 2012:[/color] [color=#0000ff]2" - 2.5 days lying[/color] [color=#696969]4th February 2012:[/color] [color=#0000ff]10-15cm - Still a good covering as of 10th Feb 2012 (10+ days snow cover)[/color][/b][/size]​
  3. It will take a major warming event to break this Polar Vortex! so it could be the end of winter when the final warming occurs when we see any meaningful cold. The stronger the vortex, the stronger the westerly winds around the pole and with that a more powerful jet. The end result is generally that the cold is locked up tight in the polar region. We are more likely going to see the jet pummelling through or to the north of the UK very often this winter.
  4. [code=auto:0] Weak El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +0.5 to +0.9) Dates Winter Class Info 1951 – 1952 Mild & snowless According to reports this winter was generally mild but snowy in March 1952 when easterly winds and blizzards caused havoc for the South East. 1952 – 1953 Mild & snowless Despite a cold end to Autumn with 20-25cm of snow across a belt from Wales to East Anglia the winter turned out to be rather snowless with more in the way of Atlantic storms including a north sea storm surge during January 1953. 1953 – 1954 Very cold & snowless Whilst this winter was very cold with bitingly cold winds the end of Jan into Feb saw heavy snow fall in the south with Kent reportedly seeing 2 metre drifting. 1958 – 1959 Mild & snowless There are no reports for this winter other than it being proceeded by Stormy atlantic weather with flooding in places and followed by a fine warm spring. 1968 – 1969 Cold & Snowy Notably one the few White Christmas in the UK with overnight heavy snow giving wales and the cotswolds a foot of snow. Generally cold through winter with severe blizzards across the norther isles courtesy of a polar low slipping SE across the country effecting the Midlands, east Anglia and parts of the south. 1969 – 1970 Mild & snowless There are no reports for this winter other than Autumn finishing with one of the 5 driest Octobers and 3rd equal warmest. 1976 – 1977 Mild & Wet Notable very wet autumn in 1976 followed by one of the wettest Februarys across England and wales. Wet snow was actually reported at times during this winter. 1977 – 1978 Cold & Snowy Winter started off with a generally wet December being reported. By mid January things had turned colder with heavy snow and blizzards reported around the UK and again in February. 6 ft drifts reported in a number of regions. 1979 – 1980 Mild & Wet Classed mild and wet due to lack of reports. One being that this winter had a record of 5 episodes of severe gales/ storms. Snowfall was recorded on two dates, with one in february and one in march 1980. 1994 – 1995 Cold & Snowy Conflicting reports on this one. Two sources state overall snowless and wet where as netweather historical reports frequent bouts of heavy snow at times in January, february and march 1995. The early to mid naughties were indeed cold and snowy in my part of the NW of the UK with deep drifting. 2004 – 2005 Mild & snowless This was overall a mild and wet winter due to the dominace of westerlies. With that said, these westerlies did bring some snow showers to Scotland and NW England on occasion. February was fairly mild on the whole with anticyclonic nw'erlies. 2006 – 2007 Mild & snowless Exceptionaly wet on the whole for most of the UK with Snow showers mostly confined to Scotland. England did see some snow at the end of winter into spring 2007. Moderate El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +1.0 to +1.4) Dates Winter Class Info 1963 – 1964 Cold & Dry Exceptionally dry winter for the most part with only one incident of snow showers reported. 1986 – 1987 Cold & Snowy This winter saw record breaking low max temps in Jan 87 and heavy snow, mostly for the South through SW. Snow continued for SW into March 87. 1987 – 1988 Mild & Wet Winter 87/88 followed the well know known “Great October Storm” when the SE experienced damaging winds of over 100 mph which caused local devistation and a number of death. Winter 87/88 continued in much the same vain with wet and windy weather. Jan 88 was the wettest January for 40 years. 1991 – 1992 Cold & Dry Winter 91/92 turned out to be the driest winter for 28yrs with any snow mostly confined to the Scottish highlands. 2002 – 2003 Mild & snowless Reports on this winter state that Aboyne Aberdeenshire recorded temps of 18.3c on the 26th Jan 2003. In England 17.4c and 16.3c was recorded in Kent and Gravesend respecively. Though the occasional easterly winds did bring some biting wind chills. 2009 – 2010 Very cold & snowy After an unsettled and reasonably mild first half of December this winter turned out to be the coldest since 78/79 broadly speaking. Prolonged periods of harsh frosts and frequent snowfall recorded right across the country. -22.3c was the lowest recorded for Sunderland. I'm sure most people remember the frequent below freezing Ice days and travel disruption caused in winter 2009/10. A classic winter for very cold and snowy conditions. Strong El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +1.5 plus) Dates Winter Class Info 1957 – 1958 Snowy Surprisingly this winter started off on the mild side with temps of 18.3 c recorded at Aber N. Wales before Cold air swept south across the UK from thr 19th with heavy snow across large parts of the UK. Shoeburyness recorded level lying snow depths of 25 inches. 1965 – 1966 Snowy The second half of November saw heavy snow for most parts of the UK. Late January saw the Eastern parts effected by snow followed by the NE of the country in Feb. 1972 – 1973 Mild and Wet Most reports do not refer to this winter directly and only generalise that the lead up to and the following spring were dominated by stormy depressions. And that only leads to one thing. 1982 – 1983 Snowy A number of reports don't mention anything notable about this winter. However, that is because this was a northern affair. Very cold and snowy in the north up the pennines to Scotland in November, December and February. 1997 – 1998 Mild & snowless An exceptionally mild winter this one and largely snowless, though snow was reported right across the country on a few occasions. The poor winter was also followed by a “white easter”. No % Total Number of El Nino Winters since 1950: 23 No of Weak El nino winters since 1950: 12 No of Moderate El nino winters since 1950: 6 No of Strong El nino winters since 1950: 5 Total number of El nino winters that were poor for snow: 15 65 Percent of El Ninos were Largely Snowless Total number of El nino winters that were good for snow 8 35 Percent of El Ninos were Snowfests % of Weak El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 9 75 Percent of weak El Nino winters were snowless % of Moderate El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 4 67 Percent of moderate El Nino winters were snowless % of Stong El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 2 40 Percent of strong El nino winters were snowless Summary: 65% of El Ninos resulted in poor winters for the UK in terms of snow. 35% of El Ninos resulted in good winters for the Uk in terms of snow. During an El Nino winter there is overall a 65% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. 60% of Strong El Ninos resulted in Snowy UK winters. 40% of Strong El Ninos resulted in poor winters for the UK for snow. During a strong El Nino winter there is a 60% chance of a snowy UK winter and 40% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. During a Moderate El Nino winter there is a 33% chance of a snowy UK winter and a 67% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. During a weak El Nino winter there is a 25% chance of a snowy UK winter and 75% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. [/code] :)
  5. Looking back at this blog / forecast, I actually wasn't too far off the Mark in terms of it being a dryer than normal winter, cold at times and February was one of the mildest Febs on record.
  6. I can tell you now, only the Blue / rain was accurate on that radar shot. Im firmly sat under Green.. Sleet ? And its been Very heavy constant snow all night since 7 am It fell as snow further west and NW of here too (Oldham)
  7. Snowing slightly still here on the hills of Oldham. What a shocker, waking up to a right good dumping! Easily 6 inches deep plus some drifting. That is more like it!
  8. Yeah Just over the hill from you we had moderate snow from 8-9pm didn't appear to stick much in Shaw before it died off. Then just walking home to Sholver/ Moorside it kicked in again. We've had about another 2 cm added to what we already had from the weekend. As you say, wish we'd had the really heavy stuff which covers gritted roads From an Imby (5 ft drifts) point of view I would say a dissappointing winter so far.
  9. I'll be looking forward to seeing the 12z, This band of stormy rain due later could well turn to snow on the back edge during the night depending on the colder air digging in behind the warm front possibly giving blizzard conditions to those in favourable areas which are those at elevation over towards the Pennines.. Like me http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015011406/gfsnh-2-24.png?6 Next Wednesday looks glorious too.
  10. Epic ? Its a blip with a large warm sector on the UKMO. The ECM drags alot of milder air into the mix.. so more of the same. Cold wet and windy Imo before drying out and thats before the SWerlies kick in as the incoming high sinks into europe... Dire model viewing if its a lengthy cold spell your after.. Nevermind wanting to get a smidging of snow!
  11. Its back again. Big juicy flakes and starting to stick. If we can keep heavy preciop we could do well here.
  12. Just started snowing quite heavily up here in Oldham east a bit wet atm but good stuff. Edit: Might have known it would stop after posting here .....
  13. Well @ 297m We've had nothing but none-stop rain since around 7pm! and it festering freezing cold out there. Gutted so far, thought I'd have seen something sleety by now
  14. Well there has been a lot of Heavy rain so far here, though it's starting to turn increasingly wintry...
  15. Nothing is confirmed until it verifies! To be honest, everyone seems so hung up looking for the Scandi block they are missing the bigger picture and that is frequent incursions of PM airmass via the North and West. Even if we continued in the current pattern it will be a good thing for many and better than last year. Wind at times ? Yes, Wet at times Yes ? Snow showers for many ? Yes. Obviously the models do not currently show a severe and prolonged cold blast via blocking but it is not the be all and end all. Some of us have already had snow but we should not forget that changes to severe cold can often be abrupt.
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