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SLEETY

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Everything posted by SLEETY

  1. SLEETY
    Should have waited for Ecm instead of just using gfs to make that statement. Not that ECM is correct though been down this path before with this model and perfect charts at the end of the run that never materialise.
  2. SLEETY
    JMA was only model that didn't sink the high like all the other models did they only reverted back a day or so ago, so we now get a decent Easterly with uppers approaching minus 10
  3. SLEETY
    Start of February 1963 redux there. Check the archives
  4. SLEETY
    JMA the best performing model in the run-up to the cold spell.Only model that didnt sink the high like especially the ukmo and ecm have past couple of days,before they reverted back to a northwards shift this afternoon.,So poor performance from those two models.Would like to seee the verification stats.Jma must be near the top at least
  5. SLEETY
    ok its gone to garbage and wont verify but the depth of cold is staggering up north.If we tap-in to it sometime this winter then it be one big frezze up
  6. SLEETY
    Yes 18z Ecm further north with the high at 90 hours compared to six hours earlier at 96 hours. Might be fine margins but at least it didn't go further South.
  7. SLEETY
    Isn't it always, waiting for the extended ensembles. Should be some crackers in there!
  8. SLEETY
    Compared to what it was showing a couple of days ago it's awful. We had minus 8 to minus 10 upper air over the UK now at best its half that at around minus. 5 Doubt it's crrect though, probably one of the mildest runs from the pack after day 5-6 like it is nearly is every run!
  9. SLEETY
    Awful Ecm hopefully it's wrong again.miles away from what it was showing 48 hours ago Not much cold around then looking like a topper at the end Uselesd
  10. SLEETY
    Even if we had minus 20 upper air over UK. I'm sure the BBC would have max temps of around 7 c over UK like they have before with cold weather The Met will be accurate but they won't commit yet. Too far out to be certain of anything.
  11. SLEETY
    ensembles should be interesting later bet the minus 15 c line is breached
  12. SLEETY
    you would think the low over italy would have stopped the sinking ?
  13. SLEETY
    but it cant do both have you ever seen an archive chart where high pressure sinks over uk then two days later retrogresses NW ? More runs needed again !! At least we have a chance of a decent cold snap in January for a change.Its been a while..............
  14. SLEETY
    so THE HIGH is sinking sw then retrogressing again at day 10 on ecm thats the pattern nailed thenWhat a brillant model .NOT
  15. SLEETY
    how can the high sink SE then move SW on ecm rubbish,wont verify.More runs needed.
  16. SLEETY
    be interesting watching the ecm extended ensembles later,some really bitterly cold ones in there that dont sink the high I would think and is the op back to mild outliers after 144 which it normally does for days on end.
  17. SLEETY
    ecm proving its useless after 144 so different from last night.Knowing our luck it has the correct solution,ever have that sinking feeling
  18. SLEETY
    Are you talking about the posts in here or the models at least it proves the models dont have a clue yet.
  19. SLEETY
    too far out to know the final outcome,models can never get to grips with these set-ups.
  20. SLEETY
    ukmo was the best for bringing in the cold a couple of days ago now so far today its the worst looking model and wants to sink the high.Give up.What is it with computer models and blocking highs over Scandi,they never can get to grips with it until 72 hours out.So dont presume any model has the correct soulution yet.
  21. SLEETY
    That aged wellStop using the gfs as your no1 model, it's finally smelling the coffee about 3 days after the other models, the constant mild outliers were the clue it was wrong and has failed again.
  22. SLEETY
    permutation 48 or 21 on ecm please
  23. SLEETY
    UK climate has always been pretty poor for snow and cold but it's gone from that the past 36 years to hardly any point looking for snow and cold on the computer models as it hardly ever happens. Yes the hobby for looking for cold in the winter has ended for me as well. Happens so rarely as I said that you won't be missing much by not looking for it. We have an awful. Climate for snow and cold, that much is true.
  24. SLEETY
    Gfs just Woeful, still one of the mildest runs the op was.Their is a 20c spread in 850s,on gfs probably best to ignore the model with its fantasy storms and snow it has been showing. Just bin it into the Atlantic to sink without trace Wasting people's time showing outlandish charts that never materialise!
  25. SLEETY
    What's happened looking dire for cold a few days ago now the Highlands at least are going to get buried and lower levels in places should see some snow
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