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Everything posted by SLEETY
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch laughable difference between its earlier run,that had minus 8 upper air over uk now list completely flipped showing milder weather moving North. Models are just useless when not faced with mild weather Synoptics ,don’t expect the final outcome to be decided for days. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cloud 10 the HLB returns for spring again,never saw it all winter apart from briefly in early january. -
colder march than feb just gone coming up,not a surprise,here comes the HLB once Winter ends again/
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March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
SLEETY replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
4.9c 95mm Here comes all the HLB once winter ends again. -
and here comes the change to winter again as winter ends,
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Lukesluckybunch winter is done mate,see you sometime in spring when Northern blocking becomes the dominant force again
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probably may when we get a decent greenland high,like we did a couple of years ago.too late then for anything exciting
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The way Ecm flips and flops in the later time-frames, might as well ignore it after 144 hours. Frustrating model like to know where it sits in the verification stats, currently -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm mild outlier at the end, so heoefully it's wrong again -
RJBingham gfs been chucking out mild op runs for days,and why you just showing gfs,what about the other models t.ECM looks much colder,in the longer range expect perfect charts for cold and snow as winter ends,thats what normally happens. the obsession some people have with gfs is mindblowing
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ecm day TEN keeping the fading dream alive -
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
SLEETY replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
how have we gone from snow on the beach and -7c at the nearby airport here,in Early jan to possibly the mildest feb ever,love to see the temp spike from the cold spell to now. When we go mild in winter now,its just goes extremely mild and always lasts at least twice as long as cold spells,reason we have rarely any below average winter months for ages. my 7,2 c prediction looks too low!! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Rob 79812010 is it because your using the gfs op to come to that assumption.op was a mild run from the pack.gfs worse performing in the verification stats too.If gfs op only went to 168 hours we wouldnt have this overreaction to every gfs run Stop looking at the op runs and thinking thats the final solution,doesnt work like that. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm op run mildest run again, right at the top again. What a surprise NOT!! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
no ecm is junk from start to finish,miles away from a decent cold-spell having said that dont think later in the week is nailed yet, despite the massive backtrack of ecm and ukmo towards gfs -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
need that freezing air in the NE of Europe to head west,216 ecm is trying lol -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
last two frames of ecm might be good,azores high linking up with Scandi high? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lukesluckybunch yeah ECM rubbish,lets hope its wrong.or we are miles away from a prolonged cold-spell -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs is worse in the verification stats over the other two, remember that as well, when thinking the gfs has the correct pattern. . -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
nick sussex what's makes you think gfs is correct anyway, top of the ensemble runs other models have the low further south etc. Too much obsession with gfs in here. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
TillyS so your going with the op run and ignoring the many colder runs from the gfs,that makes sense,and ignoring the other models that have the low much further South,that also makes sense -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
gfs op top of the spread again lots of cold options in there.Why are some people just using the op and ignoring the other runs in there,even the MET OFFICE use all the ensemble runs to make their judgements,but not in here.That figures then -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
gfs op was one of the warmest runs in the pack for most of europe nevermind the uk,its lost the plot again some of the ensemble runs were over 15c colder than the op.london and brussels below -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
SLEETY replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
too far out to nail the track of the low.Why are people treating every op run as the final solution,same every time at this range. Put any money on the track being totally differnt than what is currently being shown