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SLEETY

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    Brighton race course 400ft asl
  • Interests
    Sports,walking,and of course the weather,especially Snow,shame we dont get any here anymore-(

    About to change by the look of things-COME ON!!!!!!!!!!

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  1. Ok that’s fair enough,but maybe you can explain what is needed to get cold weather and snow for much of low-lying land in the UK, if you think Northern blocking and air masses originating from that region is not accurate when looking for cold weather then what is needed then Im just posting what I have read from weather books,that for much of the uk,to get a decent cold spell you need the air mass to be Arctic or continental in origin ,and none of the models are CURRENTLY showing that happening in the reliable time-frame at least.
  2. We just CANNOT get sustained northern blocking in the model output, during the winter months any more,thats why only really Scotland are having a cold winter ,because their location is far enough north to benefit from colder maritime polar air than further south. Further south you need maritime Arctic air or continental polar/artic air to bring cold and snow further snow,because of the shorter sea track thats the simple explanation,of the differences and still NO sign of blocking setting up in the correct location from ANY model to bring a decent cold spell for all the country.
  3. Well it’s been over 20 years I think since we have had that kind of Easterly in the winter months ,,so we should be due an absolutely mega Easterly anytime soon then
  4. I presume the building of High pressure from the Azores in fl from ecm, gfs bringing very much milder weather will most probably verify. Of course if they both showing very much colder weather with high pressure building down from the Arctic you just know 100% they would NOT verify. You just know it don’t you
  5. It’s just the lack of easterlies in the winter months that is so noticeable now,Even Arctic Northerlies are rare too,although at least we had one decent Northerly in Dec which gave the Midlands a decent snowfall. Untill we see an increase in these two types of airstream then winters are going to continue to suck at low levels in the UK for the foreseeable future.
  6. Roll on spring .Thats when we see normally see proper Northern Blocking and the chance of some decent snow here.Last time we saw lying snow here was March 2013;more than in Dec 2010 Godd riddance Winter 17/18 a complete joke and traversty of a winter in the SE
  7. So what happened to this Easterly some posters were banging on about. we told you that Ecm run from a couple of days ago showing easterlies was a load of junk,how many failed easterlies is that from the junk ecm. it may have best NH verification but what about Uk verification it’s been a complete joke .
  8. There are hints of pressure intensifying on ukmo from Russia,but miles away from reaching UK. People going to chase these winter easterlies till spring ,when they will probably verify then
  9. So who thinks the Easterly is going to happen that was shown on ecm this morning. if I was a bookmaker offering odds on the ecm being correct for a change regarding an Easterly showing i would offer these odds 10/1 Easterly 2/9 No Easterly place your bets
  10. I cannot! see the Easterly on gfs again ,maybe it’s time to move on from from this Easterly saga,that’s not going to happen
  11. None I don’t think.It looks nice on a computer screen but they never seem to verify.I I wouldn’t get excited. about ECM showing an Easterly until it’s still showing .at t+72 . Same with the other models,if something can go wrong when an Easterly is showing then it usually does. If it’s still there by end of week then MAYBE it might happen,till then best to remember it only exists in a computer program
  12. looks like we are miles away from a prolonged deep Easterly cold spell, This week some people will have snow but I cant see anything after this week that's going to bring extended cold spell,from ANY model Nothing in the met long range forecasts suggesting it either. ANOTHER WINTER OF JUST CHASING RAINBOWS.....
  13. You need huge push from East to get it over to uk. I have seen countless times Europe get the cold and uk misses out,as the block fails to push back west enough. Thats the Uk for you too far West at the end of the European contingent ,on an Island,surrounded by warm seas. No wonder we spend most winter chasing cold
  14. Hope the ecm shows heights building over Svalbard like it did on yesterday’s 12z.Thats the holy grail of uk cold spells high pressure intensifying in that region and building Southwards. Our coldest and longest spells of wintry weather come from there.Very very rare though.
  15. You mean the ecm and the arctic high building down from savalbard that it showed ? about 100-1 shot,of that reaching uk lol
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