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    Freshwater Isle of Wight

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  1. Whilst hunting for cold just now I notice Svalbald -21C, East Greenland -36 C and a 1000-500 mb thickness cold pool of 474 DM just north of Lapland. The intense high forecast to be to our east in a few days time is expected to suck up unusual warmth. If skies remain clear under the high an inversion is likely to develop with cold possibly foggy nights and potentially warm days. Where any fog forms it could be slow to clear with temperatures close to freezing in these parts. Along the south and east coasts where more of a breeze is likely temperatures are likely to be suppressed by the cool sea but mixing with the warm air aloft due to the breeze may alleviate the effect of the cold sea. It will be very interesting to see how the high behaves with such cold air surrounding it and a island of unusual warmth covering the UK.
  2. Satellite imagery shows an extensive snow cover over northeast France and the Low countries from the heavy snow there over the last couple of days. This acts as an ice sheet suppressing surface temperatures and with the wind direction modelled to flow from the SE it must increase the chances of wintry precipitation to southern coastal counties. Also 06Z GFS precipitation chart has the snow area slightly further south than the previous run now very close to the south coast. It is fairly rare to get snow actually laying on the south coast however parts of the south rise up to around 800 feet so from an imby prospective all to play for.
  3. The record for a Siberian high is 1083.8 MB which occurred at the end of December 1968. I remember trying to convince a colleague it was a high we were plotting on the circumpolar chart and not a low as only the last three digits of the value were coded and plotted.
  4. Low resolution 12Z GFS shows a powerful Russian high 1060 mb moving westwards to our north and ridging towards Greenland.
  5. Was is Kusamo in N Finland a few years ago and it was -36 C. Looking out it could have been -1 C as there was little hoar frost as the air was so dry. A local lady was out walking her dog !
  6. Does Net Weather have a list of acronyms ? I am struggling with NAM, PNA, STJ, COD for example.
  7. Yes it is 384 but unusually deep cold air is poised in just the right place to the north of Iceland and looks ready to sweep down across the UK. All change next run.
  8. This is certainly what GFS is suggesting. The high to the east builds as very cold air is brought ever further west into Europe while at the same time the low struggles to make progress against the developing block.
  9. Some improvement on 06 Z GFS mid range with Russian high positioned much further northwest than 00z with trough disruption beneath the ridge forcing very cold air back as far west as Denmark.
  10. Although I am unable to reproduce the fax charts here I have just toggled between the latest T+96 and the T+120 and was surprised to see such a dramatic westward extension of the cold air towards the UK by Saturday.
  11. Changes are occurring as early as T +72 with repeated westward corrections near the UK with fronts held to our west as warm air surges north aiding the building of a significant ridge to our east. Watch near time to see if the trend continues tomorrow.
  12. Latest UKMO T+84 fax resembles a chart from an earlier decade with a big high to the NE, trough disruption over the UK and with an occlusion trying to move westwards across the southern half of the UK. A bit of a westward correction when compared to the previous run e.g yesterday evenings T+96. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif