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  1. This is certainly what GFS is suggesting. The high to the east builds as very cold air is brought ever further west into Europe while at the same time the low struggles to make progress against the developing block.
  2. Some improvement on 06 Z GFS mid range with Russian high positioned much further northwest than 00z with trough disruption beneath the ridge forcing very cold air back as far west as Denmark.
  3. Although I am unable to reproduce the fax charts here I have just toggled between the latest T+96 and the T+120 and was surprised to see such a dramatic westward extension of the cold air towards the UK by Saturday.
  4. Changes are occurring as early as T +72 with repeated westward corrections near the UK with fronts held to our west as warm air surges north aiding the building of a significant ridge to our east. Watch near time to see if the trend continues tomorrow.
  5. Latest UKMO T+84 fax resembles a chart from an earlier decade with a big high to the NE, trough disruption over the UK and with an occlusion trying to move westwards across the southern half of the UK. A bit of a westward correction when compared to the previous run e.g yesterday evenings T+96. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif
  6. Agreed. UKMO, ECM and GFS have all been entertaining the idea of some sort trough disruption close to the UK over the last few runs with a tendency to build high pressure somewhere to the NE. We could be witnessing an evolving easterly in the medium term.
  7. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=1&hour=0&year=2012&map=0&mode=2 Not so very different to what GFS is modelling this week and this spell was only 3 years ago. It ended up in early February with the SE of the UK coming under the influence of proper Siberian air one of the few occasions in the last hundred years or so.
  8. http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php Big changes from around T+120 on 12Z GFS backed up by latest UKMO as trough approaching UK slips south giving lower heights to S of the UK as weak ridge tries to build to the N/NE. Seem to remember that the recent cold spell appeared out of the blue at around T+96.
  9. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Latest 8-10 day 500mb charts continue to show low heights in the eastern Med and Azores preventing the Azores high from assuming its normal position. ECM has the axis of the ridge extending from mid Atlantic to Russia slightly further north with respect to the UK compared to yesterday. GFS has the upper high cell over Scandinavia further to the NE than yesterday. The upper ridge and associated surface high will have difficulty sinking too far south while low heights continue to be modelled from the Med to the Azores.
  10. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=186&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1 An omega block in the vicinity of the UK by around T+174. It could do with being a bit further north but nevertheless a rare sight.
  11. Its freezing out there and looks to get even colder over next few days.
  12. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html 8-10 day 500mb charts continue with the theme of low heights to the south with one lobe of the trough over the eastern Med and another close to the Azores. The ridge to the north is flatter, slightly further south being squeezed between low height to the north and the low heights to the south. 06Z GFS shows the surface high meandering in the vicinity of the UK and western Europe which could give frosty nights with potential for freezing fog and inversion cold. At the same time western Europe is expected to slide into the freezer especially if it manages to catch more of a snow cover over the next few days and a drift from the continent could be decidely cold. 2.5 CM of snow here this morning and still on the hills so feeling optimistic.
  13. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Latest 8-10 day 500mb charts both ECM and GFS show a sustantial block in the east Atlantic which has gradually evolved over the last few days. The slow but steady evolution and with little change from yesterday could be a sign of some stability to this pattern. The Azores high is displaced to the north being propped up by the upper trough that is shown to extend ever further westwards from the Med to the Azores. The cold spell originally predicted to end tomorrow looks likely to continue for a while yet at least in the south.
  14. Yes thanks don't know what happened there...you are absolutely right.
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